colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Could also be a clipper to watch for Tuesday/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Sun/Mon storm looks like a 1-3 event. Those long range fantasy storms may not work out so dont want to look past what may be our biggest snow of the season so far. NAM is showing more back end snow on Sunday. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Never understood how to interpret those plots. Does that mean that .5 inches of liquid are gonna fall as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Never understood how to interpret those plots. Does that mean that .5 inches of liquid are gonna fall as snow? Yep. If you look at the dark blue graph, each plot is a 3 hour time frame. Its all snow starting late afternoon Sunday with a quick burst of snow. Looks like around .3 of snow. Based on how light the precip is for the midweek clipper, it looks to be really drawn out so doubt that would accumulate even though if you total up the snow it would be about .25 precip as snow. So even though .564 of snow would accumulate about 5.5 inches, its doubtful we would get near that actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Clipper looks to be strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like the GFS is OTS with next weekends. I am glad it has shifted for now. Lots of time to figure it out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like the GFS is OTS with next weekends. I am glad it has shifted for now. Lots of time to figure it out, I would rather see an OTS for now and have it trend in our direction. We have to remember that even 48 hrs out we can get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Man long range is loaded. Just need that nw trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's lookin good and IF that cold low is further east for Sunday-we'd be in great shape in just 2 days!...what happened to that pic you posted colonel?....or was that for NEXT Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's lookin good and IF that cold low is further east for Sunday-we'd be in great shape in just 2 days!...what happened to that pic you posted colonel?....or was that for NEXT Saturday? I think I over emphasized how east the EURO was. I mistook the low over Virginia but there was a surface low in Ohio. So it wasn't so east like I thought and there was nothing really to getting much more snow so I didn't want to mislead so I removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Most likely we will see some snow squalls monday with the arctic front. I like when we see whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The teleconnections are all in absolute favorable positions. If we can keep an active STJ I almost think this screams decent hit at some point. The AO is tanking hard and that actually could mean suppression (which is what we're seeing now from the GFS). An AO of this intensity reminds of the 09-10 winter. But we have the MJO in phase 8 for the time being - could rotate into the COD briefly (for those unfamiliar Phases 8, 1, and 2 are best for east coast snow). AO and NAO negative and comfortably so, along with a +PNA. EPO is also negative but the forecast is a bit less certain (basically neutral). Clippers are typically consistent for a couple inches so long as the low slides south of us. I'm not too confident for our area in the southern forecast zone, but for you guys north of I-70 I'm sure are all in good position for now. At least for the next couple weeks we could have storms to track, and that is better than nothing. It has been boring out there since last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Man, it's fun to be back and to be paying attention to the models. Sat night/Sun is the classic heavy rain, dry slot, few wrap around snow showers. No biggie but still will be fun to see flakes flying. I make it a personal mantra not to look past 5 days, Wednesday looks like a boring cold front. Guess I can start considering next weekend about Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 0z GFS has 2-3" area-wide for the Tuesday-->Wednesday clipper. Don't think that is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Honestly, outside of the clipper Tuesday this week doesn't look like much. The week of the 17 looks interesting tho. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Honestly, outside of the clipper Tuesday this week doesn't look like much. The week of the 17 looks interesting tho. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you like heavy bursts of snowfall than the arctic front will provide some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If you like heavy bursts of snowfall than the arctic front will provide some excitement. Where are you getting this for Monday? Looks like a ridge will be build Monday and keep it dry. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's not for Monday-it's for Tuesday.....and tomorrow night could give us 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's not for Monday-it's for Tuesday.....and tomorrow night could give us 1-3" Id say more towards one but atleast its something. There is so much energy flying around next weekend. You would think one of them would give us a decent shot atleast moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z GFS shows us how we can get a nice storm out of the upcoming pattern. Nice area of high pressures to the North locking the cold air in as the storm approaches. Now if I were to nitpick a 200+ hour model run I'd say move it NW about 150 miles but its a good solution either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The Euro parallel shows a decent hit for us. Its something to track for now and the solution is gonna change every run. Atleast we finally have a pattern condusive to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The dreaded warm tongue giving us the middle finger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 A lot of small events adding up over next 2 weeks as depicted, much more likely than 1 big one. We all want the big one, but this fits our areas mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This looks to be a pretty good track but its the CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 My local forecast here is still saying 1-3" for us tomorrow night into monday.....and I remember the graphic that was up pretty much showed all of SW PA in that zone.....Hoping that holds....no one seems to be mentioning tomorrow's possibility-I hope that trough digs harder-faster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 My local forecast here is still saying 1-3" for us tomorrow night into monday.....and I remember the graphic that was up pretty much showed all of SW PA in that zone.....Hoping that holds....no one seems to be mentioning tomorrow's possibility-I hope that trough digs harder-faster! Seems a bit high I think. I'm thinking more along the lines of coating to maybe an inch. Clipper right now looks like about 1 inch looking at the bufkit data from the NAM and GFS but still some time for that one to maybe get a little better (or worse ) Beyond that there are just to many pieces of energy in the flow, which one ultimately becomes the dominant one and how it interacts will not be known for probably 5 more days so be prepared for a different outcome every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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