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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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I'd take these snowfall maps with a grain of salt right now. If you look at the 00z GFS 2m temperatures are above freezing when the precipitation is falling and add to that it will be in the afternoon I think totals would be lower. During more moderate times it will accumulate but its going to be wet and compact \ melt during lighter periods. If surface temps trend cooler as we get closer though that might change.

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Yea, it will pretty much come down to radar watching. I am expecting 2-3 inches with localized higher amts

2-3 inches right now seems like a decent guess for now. Torched BL is going to waste a decent bit of qpf. NWS seems to agree:

 

THE MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM

ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THAT SYSTEM SHOULD

COMPROMISE SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE SERIOUS ACCUMULATION THROUGH

MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DECISIVELY

CHANGE THE TEMP PROFILE AS NIGHT FALLS ACCORDING TO CURRENT

TIMING.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPR LOW CENTER SHOULD

SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND AND OVRALL ASCENT FIELDS AND THUS

COMPROMISE THE IMPROVED TEMP PROFILE FOR SNOW. THE FORECAST IS

THUS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH

RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE

RIDGES AS USUAL WHERE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-071945-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-
INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
235 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIGHT...BUT PROLONGED SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY REQUIRE ATTENTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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