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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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Bernie Rayno has removed Pgh from potential threat area for next week. Said Johnstown, to the northwest and east coast from DC north.

Yeah this one is more and more looking like it's a New England special. We may get a few inches but we never do good with these kinds of transfers.
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I didn't hear any thunder around my area, but not surprising. If the Nino cools rapidly over the next month or so towards a LaNina I think that increases the chances of severe weather. Maybe we will have some decent storms this year, just keep the tornado activity away. Could be a warmer than average summer on tap too. I'd love to just hit the 60s-70s for second half March and April, I hate cool damp springs.

No thunder here either. The line sort of fizzled as it reached our area this morning.

It sure feels like spring now. 61 degrees!

 

It looks like the cold settles in next week, Maybe if we don't get a big storm we can have a clipper come through and surprise us

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There is a snow threat looming in the northeastern quarter of the U.S., as well as a fairly long-duration cold spell for communities from the Great Plains to the Atlantic shoreline.

I am not going to be posting any snow and ice accumulation maps just yet, at least until we have some basic agreement among the numerical models concerning the target area and intensity.

You can see the two important disturbances in question on the GOES WEST image. The forerunner, which could create a path of minor frozen precipitation (or possibly rain/drizzle) from parts of N, C TX through the Deep South and into the Carolinas this weekend, is now entering the Pacific Northwest. The main gyre, ultimately to bring more serious snowfall and cold air potential, is over the Gulf of Alaska.

The initial impulse could become a fairly strong storm upon hitting the Gulf Stream on Monday. But that low will track away from the coast and be overwhelmed by the approaching larger low, which will press east-southeast across the Great Lakes region.

Because of the great amount of energy and sharp cold air mass, a wavy surface cold front will take shape in the Ohio Valley and move into the middle/upper Atlantic coastal plain. Depending on which model or ensemble package you believe (OpGGEM, OpGFS, all three major variant groups; OpECMWF, UKMET are naysayers), a surface low will form in S VA and track to off the Delmarva Peninsula and then the MA Islands. The 18z American scheme even suggests an inverted trough will set up convective snow and sleet from above Richmond VA into New England. The bottom line is that there is decent potential for accumulating snow in the Great Lakes (lake-related or enhanced with upper low), middle and upper Appalachia, and the Interstate 95 and 81 corridors along and above the Potomac Valley from Monday night into Wednesday morning.

I will try and update after the 12z model runs on Thursday to see how this winter weather risk unfolds. And remind you of the cold spell following.

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I am surprised nobody is talking about this upper level low that will be moving through Monday to Wednesday. As disorganized as this looks it has a potential to give us a nice snowfall similar to our Clipper systems. Interesting to watch.

I was waiting for someone to comment on this. Looks like a few inches possible.
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It's not really that exciting but it's something. We could see a couple inches between the ULL and a clipper that keeps showing up on the models. Still holding out hope for the bowling ball that was showing up on guidance but I guess 4-6 if we're lucky will have to do for now.

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It's not really that exciting but it's something. We could see a couple inches between the ULL and a clipper that keeps showing up on the models. Still holding out hope for the bowling ball that was showing up on guidance but I guess 4-6 if we're lucky will have to do for now.

 

The 0z Para GFS had this next weekend storm pretty much centered over us with massive amounts of liquid, but there would be temp issues if taken verbatim.

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