colonel717 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 But we also have the NASA model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 But we also have the NASA model... I didn't even know there was a NASA model, but the 00z Euro looks good. Without -NAO, assuming a storm does develop, I think it has a decent chance of being more inland (maybe to much so) than OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is the result of the Euro. Todays my last day of wx bell. Not sure if I should renew for one more month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I honestly hate getting nice days this time of year. I now want to be outside doing stuff. Wish warmer weather would wIt until at least March. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is the result of the Euro. Todays my last day of wx bell. Not sure if I should renew for one more month. Well I can't say I have seen a snowfall map like that in a long time. Goes to show how rare a true apps runner is. Looks like it would get everyone the last storm missed just about. As for WxBell, I say renew it for one more month, but then again its not my money so.. Really though, I'd be surprised if we didn't have at least 2-3 legit storms to track this month so it might be worth it. What does Wxbell cost a month anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is the result of the Euro. Todays my last day of wx bell. Not sure if I should renew for one more month. When I see that map it reminds me of a storm years ago (I can't recall the year) That the heavy snow was on the border over into Ohio where they got crushed and we got rain. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened. Also, any chance we get some thunderstorms or strong winds with the next front tomorrow overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is the result of the Euro. http://i.imgur.com/22YB2A5.png[/ Todays my last day of wx bell. Not sure if I should renew for one more month. I wish and hope this comes to fruition ? If there on Friday. I say game on I won't get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I wish and hope this comes to fruition ? If there on Friday. I say game on I won't get excited. There are several short waves in the upcoming time period, so its going to be really tough to get any real lead time on a storm most likely so I would hedge towards more model solutions jumping around until we get much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 When I see that map it reminds me of a storm years ago (I can't recall the year) That the heavy snow was on the border over into Ohio where they got crushed and we got rain. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened. Also, any chance we get some thunderstorms or strong winds with the next front tomorrow overnight? Big ohio valley blizzard I believ about 9 years ago. I remember Henry marguerity two days out predicting us to get 2 feet, and in the end it shifted 100 miles west and we were dry slotted. One of many frustrating storms as Columbus got 20 inches, Cleveland 15, and Erie got around 20 inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Big ohio valley blizzard I believ about 9 years ago. I remember Henry marguerity two days out predicting us to get 2 feet, and in the end it shifted 100 miles west and we were dry slotted. One of many frustrating storms as Columbus got 20 inches, Cleveland 15, and Erie got around 20 inches I think. Haha yeah that was a heartbreaker. I remember getting picked up and it was a rain/snow mix. A couple hours later it switched over out of nowhere and we ended up with 6 or so inches. That was right up there with the Phantom super bowl storm in 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Trough is dipping south, AO is going negative, some guidance is showing hints of weak blocking, and that Ridge out west is amplifying like crazy. I think there will be a big snow storm but honestly that's about as much as anyone can say at this point. Still 9/10 days out so anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Trough is dipping south, AO is going negative, some guidance is showing hints of weak blocking, and that Ridge out west is amplifying like crazy. I think there will be a big snow storm but honestly that's about as much as anyone can say at this point. Still 9/10 days out so anything can happen. It would be nice to have one 6+ storm but really as long as feb is active and there's stuff to track I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 New solution every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 At this point it's only really important to continue seeing a storm on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 At this point it's only really important to continue seeing a storm on the models. As Ritual said there is so much energy floating around that until we get a lot closer, the models are gonna key on different waves each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Trough is dipping south, AO is going negative, some guidance is showing hints of weak blocking, and that Ridge out west is amplifying like crazy. I think there will be a big snow storm but honestly that's about as much as anyone can say at this point. Still 9/10 days out so anything can happen. I agree, I'd be shocked if a big storm didn't happen, just gotta hope the stars align and we get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 You guys will LOVE this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Trough is dipping south, AO is going negative, some guidance is showing hints of weak blocking, and that Ridge out west is amplifying like crazy. I think there will be a big snow storm but honestly that's about as much as anyone can say at this point. Still 9/10 days out so anything can happen. Sometimes u say some crazy stuff u really know when we have better chances than none,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There are several short waves in the upcoming time period, so its going to be really tough to get any real lead time on a storm most likely so I would hedge towards more model solutions jumping around until we get much closer. I'm hoping you are right. It will be nice just to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I just come here mostly, I don't have no time anymore to read forums ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Pattern is really close to something big. If that leading shortwave can slow down, phase and end up being the main player it will explode and probably be a good chance it would at the very least be an apps or inland track. Models have seemed to speed that up today though, so might be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Pattern is really close to something big. If that leading shortwave can slow down, phase and end up being the main player it will explode and probably be a good chance it would at the very least be an apps or inland track. Models have seemed to speed that up today though, so might be a long shot.If we get the good luck and all that happens what day possibly?( how many days away from start ) ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If we get the good luck and all that happens what day possibly?( how many days away from start ) ?!☘☘☘☘ Depending which short wave actually becomes a storm (if any) we are looking at a range between the 8th and 11th really and that is assuming we would even be affected by whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Eh I don't like the look of the short waves. Still a long way off but it looks like New England will most likely jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Canadian looking like some possibilities next week. Hoping to catch some thunder between 4 and 7 am. Keep your ears open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Eh I don't like the look of the short waves. Still a long way off but it looks like New England will most likely jackpot. That first wave scooting out to sea is going to decrease heights along the coast, making it more likely that any second or third wave that goes boom will be further east. Seems like the one thing the models agree on is not focusing on that first short wave but diverge from there. I guess if that is what happens we want to see that first wave get out of the way even faster. I'm starting to become less optimistic for our area but still several days out there. Still can't fathom that with a full latitude trough like that a big storm doesn't blow up, but it might favor New England as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Canadian looking like some possibilities next week. Hoping to catch some thunder between 4 and 7 am. Keep your ears open. I didn't hear any thunder around my area, but not surprising. If the Nino cools rapidly over the next month or so towards a LaNina I think that increases the chances of severe weather. Maybe we will have some decent storms this year, just keep the tornado activity away. Could be a warmer than average summer on tap too. I'd love to just hit the 60s-70s for second half March and April, I hate cool damp springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It is just looking more and more like a Miller b which we usually get screwed over because the energy gets stolen away from the northern vort. This just reminds me of Nemo where the storm doesn't blow up until it's north east of us. Still 6 days out so it's still early and most ensembles are good for atleast a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Bernie Rayno has removed Pgh from potential threat area for next week. Said Johnstown, to the northwest and east coast from DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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