RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 How do you know what's gonna happen in 9 days when the models can't even get it right 1 day out ? Models are much better at predicting the overall 500mb pattern in the long range vs being able to predict how individual waves will interact with each other and cause forcing in other locations that could enhance or weaken the background pattern state which ultimately lead to storm development and track. Factor in chaos, not 100% data input, and errors in the mathematical algorithms and a very small detail being wrong at day 2 in a forecast can exponentially increase error as you get out further in time. Anyways, here is the 00z GEFS and EPS at day 10: Both agree that we see a +PNA (ridging on west coast) -AO (ridging in Arctic) and at least neutral NAO. The pattern would likely supply cold air, and if a storm were to spin up it would affect an area in the east. For now, we will moderate, and eventually get into a zonal flow, then a trough will form out west and get pretty strong which will pump ridging up in the east and we will probably get really warm for a day or 2 at least, then some sort of storm system cutting to our west before we see a pattern more favorable for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Models are much better at predicting the overall 500mb pattern in the long range vs being able to predict how individual waves will interact with each other and cause forcing in other locations that could enhance or weaken the background pattern state which ultimately lead to storm development and track. Factor in chaos, not 100% data input, and errors in the mathematical algorithms and a very small detail being wrong at day 2 in a forecast can exponentially increase error as you get out further in time. Anyways, here is the 00z GEFS and EPS at day 10: Both agree that we see a +PNA (ridging on west coast) -AO (ridging in Arctic) and at least neutral NAO. The pattern would likely supply cold air, and if a storm were to spin up it would affect a. Not a bad long range look there.The Gefs is a bit more favorable for us storm track wise, as the trough is centered more over MS, instead of AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 This is the time period I would pay attention to atleast according to the long range GFS. We have a banana high 1040 and a storm. At this point I am trying to dissect a 384 hr gfs but after the western blizzard looks like the cold returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Late next week is still a time frame to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 This is a pretty nice link to see what kind of snowstorms we have received. Credit goes to Ian from the midatlantic forum. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Single station -> extremes -> year range: 1980-2016 -> Length of period 2 or 3 days (will miss some if you only do two, or even PDII if you do three). Station selection - station of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Looks like we are going to torch over the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 If the 18Z is any indication, the first 2 weeks of February has some chances with cold and decent clippers and storms moving across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 EURO says we get to 60 possibly in this brief warmup. Just look at that warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 EURO says we get to 60 possibly in this brief warmup. Just look at that warm tongue. Wonder if there will even be any snow left from the blizzard other than piles after next week? My bet is on no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wonder if there will even be any snow left from the blizzard other than piles after next week? My bet is on no. The snow never had a chance to really compact so I bet after the cutter and warmup, the snow will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The snow never had a chance to really compact so I bet after the cutter and warmup, the snow will be gone. Makes me feel a little better about missing out. Never fun to have a nice snowfall then watch it dissappear in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's so quiet in here that I guess WWA's are old hat after last weekend's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's so quiet in here that I guess WWA's are old hat after last weekend's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Something to keep an eye on for next week. I know its reaching and its only the DGEX at this time but if models keep trending south with the next storm we could get in on the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Something to keep an eye on for next week. I know its reaching and its only the DGEX at this time but if models keep trending south with the next storm we could get in on the game... Yes I see this is a lake cutter however on the Canadian it is also trending south too. Something to watch. After this Feb 3rd storm comes it will pull in the cold for a week or so of potential storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Nice eye candy but ten day threat. Must not get excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks nice, if I had to nit pick a 10+ day map I'd like to see a bit of blocking to slow it down a little bit, then it could really be a monster. I'm sorta on auto pilot mode until Thursday or Friday to just get out of this torch period. Hopefully by then this storm is still showing up. Before that though we might have to keep an eye on that little clipper Saturday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I was going through old files and found this attachment from NWS Pit from the Feb 2010 storm. scan0006.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Nice eye candy but ten day threat. Must not get excited... You guys just torture yourselves when you do this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 colonel717, when you post maps, I think its better if you would save them, then upload and attach to your post. If you hot link they change every 24 hours and the conversation about them makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 colonel717, when you post maps, I think its better if you would save them, then upload and attach to your post. If you hot link they change every 24 hours and the conversation about them makes no sense. I usually go through imagur. I don't know if the ones I post change though. I can't believe the next threat besides the clipper is still 240+hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thank god the eye candy is gone for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 February film Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thank god the eye candy is gone for the time being. Yes ! God Forbid we have some fun, knowing that it is in the fantasy island time frame of Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 A lot of energy around and the strat warming looks to be what will bring the cold. With the arctic jet making an appearance it's game on if it can phase in. Of course this could turn bad if it phases too early and cuts west of the mountains. I bet the end of the week we will start seeing more threats show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 EURO op. Looks great. Assuming this goes up east of Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 EURO op. Looks great. Assuming this goes up east of Apps. Only about 18 more euro runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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