CoraopolisWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 About 3.5" here in Carrick. There's a Wunderground PWS station close by, curious what they are reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I would agree. It is looking like it might pivot right back into us and we start getting moisture thrown back at us from the coastal. Cropper just talked about that pivot and said he doesn't know if it will get here if the energy transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Jeff v showed viper and said its pivoting and starting to taper off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Jeff v showed viper and said its pivoting and starting to taper off That is quite a call to make right now... It is going to be real close. I hope it pivots right back into us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 Jeff v showed viper and said its pivoting and starting to taper off psss Viper radar is terrible, use NWS radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Oh I know how bad vipir is just commenting on jeffs thoughts on the pivot, I use nws or intellicast radar myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is quite a call to make right now... It is going to be real close. I hope it pivots right back into us. psss Viper radar is terrible, use NWS radar. PSSSST so is Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is quite a call to make right now... It is going to be real close. I hope it pivots right back into us. Wasn't he only calling for light snow showers yesterday for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The coastal hasn't taken over yet, We can assume then that "bombogenesis" hasn't occurred, which should reinforce the precip shield. Obviously the dynamics of that have yet to play out so we don't really know what will happen - does the low get captured and pulled? Does it not close off and move more progressively? Based on what the NAM is spitting out I have to assume it shows a capture event. Interesting to look at the water vapor and see just how deep of a trough has formed in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 25 dbz is struggling to stay together, but hopefully the 20 dbz can set up for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 586FXUS61 KPBZ 230310AFDPBZAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1010 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THEHEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE SYSTEMWILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSUREBUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY ANDTUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS FIGURED WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW OVERNORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MD. BAND OF SNOW THAT CAMPED OUT OVERPARTS OF CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY HAS WEAKENED...BUT STILL A GOODDISCREPANCY FROM US 422 CORRIDOR TO I-70. STRONG ISENTROPICUPGLIDE AT 290K CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIP OVER THE REGION. IRSATELLITE ILLUSTRATES CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS THENORTHERN HALF OF WV ABOVE THE WARM CONVEYER BELT...WHICH WILLKEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SERN PART OF CWA GOING THROUGH THENIGHT TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. MIGHT HAVETO ADD INDIANA COUNTY TO THE WARNING GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR.WITH STRONG WINDS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ACCURATE MEASUREMENTS.WE ARE ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF 5-6 FOOT SNOW DRIFTS IN THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON COUNTY IN WV. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONBELOW...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK WITHTHE UPPER LOW...AND THUS THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTALLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENTFORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUTMOST NOTABLY TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM STILL SEEMS TOBE THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT DOES AGREAT JOB OF PORTRAYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS ANTICIPATEDTO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SATURDAYMORNING. WHERE THIS EVENTUAL BAND OF SNOW/TROWAL WILL SET UP ANDPRODUCE THE BEST SNOW FALL RATES/AMOUNTS...STILL REMAINS INQUESTION BUT....GENERALLY ANTICIPATE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FROMWETZEL-GREENE-FAYETTE-WESTMO RIDGES AND ALMOST 2 FEET (OR MORE) INTHE PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT.ALL IN ALL VERY MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH ENHANCEMENTSMADE BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FORECAST FROM WPC. AS WAS MENTIONEDPREVIOUSLY...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY INTHE 10-12:1 RANGE THROUGH THE EVENT...IT WILL BE THE MESOSCALEBANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.IN REGARD TO THE WIND...GUSTS TO 30MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THEHIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP THISEVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS INTHOSE LOCATIONS.AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER WHERETHE DEFORMATION BAND/TROWAL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD END FROM WEST TOEAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS SNOW ENDING FORMOST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE AREAS FROM ZZV-PIT-DUJ BY EARLYMORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT PRODUCT END TIMES AS IS FORNOW.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THESYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TOTHE NORTHEAST AND WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTHZONES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING INTHE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUTCOULD BE COLDER IF WE FULLY DECOUPLE.FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN CONTROLON SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT MODERATION INTEMPERATURES. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.THIS SLOW CLOUD INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ANDMONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. AFEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00ZTUESDAY...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. THESOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVENSLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULDCHANGE TO RAIN WITH TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FZRABUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS SHOULDBE ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOWBEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVERALL SHOULD BE REASONABLY LIGHT.A BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWEDBY ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WERE MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED BY USING THESUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.&&.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WHILE BVI/FKL/DUJ SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF HEAVIER SNOW ANDWILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS...REST OF TERMINALS SHOULDDROP TO IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. LIFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUETHROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNTIL CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE SLOWLY FROMWEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT VLIFRVISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO25 KNOTS WILL BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOMEBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW PA AND NORTHERN WV.IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAFPERIOD..OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THESYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILLBRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.&&.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068.WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ069.PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-023.WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ031-074>076.WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ029-073.WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ002-003.WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ004.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 When does the NAM capture the storm. Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 BOOM Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1034 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016PAZ021-023-231145-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160124T0000Z//O.EXA.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T0000Z/ALLEGHENY-INDIANA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...INDIANA1034 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM ESTSATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...6 TO 10 INCHES SOUTH.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...THROUGH 3AM.* SNOW ENDING...LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW. SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.* WIND...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OFSNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL INAN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Verszyla is one of the worst on camera fakes in the nation. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/pdf/deformation_zones.pdf The deformation zone seems to be setting up on the AGC/WSH border. Watch the movement of the returns of the radar.."airstreams flowing toward each other and then fanning out as they meet" We have a long way to go. Hope you all enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KristaPghash Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This was on their facebook page an hour ago lol US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA We've expected the entire time that there will be a wide spread in snowfall totals across Allegheny County. A realistic range is 2" along the Allegheny-Butler county line all the way to 8" in the southern tip. Since our advisories and warnings are county-based averages, we don't expect to issue a warning for Allegheny County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The coastal hasn't taken over yet, We can assume then that "bombogenesis" hasn't occurred, which should reinforce the precip shield. Obviously the dynamics of that have yet to play out so we don't really know what will happen - does the low get captured and pulled? Does it not close off and move more progressively? Based on what the NAM is spitting out I have to assume it shows a capture event. Interesting to look at the water vapor and see just how deep of a trough has formed in the East. You're right, it's such a close call as to what happens in part II of this system overnight. How far does that 850 mb fetch make it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Just peeped the HRRR simulated radar. Doesn't show it stopping anytime soon from Allegheny County southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is great that we got upped to a warning right after he said it is going to taper off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is great that we got upped to a warning right after he said it is going to taper off. Honestly I thought he might hedge his bets more but he talked about the pivot and transfer to coastal, said it should be over for most of agc by 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 psss Viper radar is terrible, use NWS radar. What is better for snow events, composite or base reflectivity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 i have no idea, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 What is better for snow events, composite or base reflectivity? I usually use composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Composite is better for weenies...thats all I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Composite is better for weenies...thats all I know Lol, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 What is the difference between base and composite reflectivity?The main difference is composite reflectivity shows the highest dBZ (strongest reflected energy) at all elevation scans, not just the reflected energy at a single elevation scan. This can be seen in the images below from the Salt Lake City radar. Base Reflectivity Composite Reflectivity Notice the additional reflectivity that is visible in the composite reflectivity (far right). It is most readily seen around the name 'Wendover'. Also notice the composite view displays a slightly larger area of heavy rain (orange-red area to the west of Wendover).Why the difference? Base reflectivity only shows reflected energy at a single elevation scan of the radar. Composite reflectivity displays the highest reflectivity of ALLelevations scans. So, if heavier precipitation is higher in the atmosphere over an area of lighter precipitation (the heavier rain that has yet to reach the ground), the composite reflectivity image will display the stronger dBZ level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Got close to 8" here in Ligonier Township and snowing crazy right for the last few hours. Looks like AGC got into the warning. Jeff V is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 He just upped his agc total from 3-6 to 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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