north pgh Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It is showing only .8 inches on 3/6/11. Either way that would be our largest snow of the year... Sorry I was looking at March 11th. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Very light dusting yesterday morning! First "real" snow of the season in these parts. I was in Pittsburgh on 12/18 when he had that bit of snow Friday night, as well. Unfortunately I think the upcoming mess is going to be poorly timed with the cold, not holding out much hope. Though beggars can't be choosers this year and anything over an inch at this point will seem like a blizzard. I don't really know how the rest of the winter will shake out; I can say I'll be surprised if we sniff 20" down here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If you like clippers next week could offer a couple shots of snow once the cold air gets into our region. If we can get one of those to go under us with some lake enhancement those can be good for a 2-4 inch event. Or if one digs enough it can start to juice up and who knows what happens. I still don't know what to make of the second low on the 11th, most likely its to warm no matter what happens and we end up with rain showers changing to snow showers as the front passes. One thing for certain is there is a lot of volatility in anything past day 4 right now, even the ensembles seem to be waffling more than usual in the longer range on the eventual evolution of the cold pattern. Some hope now that we don't fall back into that Dec pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If you like clippers next week could offer a couple shots of snow once the cold air gets into our region. If we can get one of those to go under us with some lake enhancement those can be good for a 2-4 inch event. Or if one digs enough it can start to juice up and who knows what happens. I still don't know what to make of the second low on the 11th, most likely its to warm no matter what happens and we end up with rain showers changing to snow showers as the front passes. One thing for certain is there is a lot of volatility in anything past day 4 right now, even the ensembles seem to be waffling more than usual in the longer range on the eventual evolution of the cold pattern. Some hope now that we don't fall back into that Dec pattern. I am a fan of clippers. The last 2 winters my fav snow events were 2 over performing clippers with squall lines. 2 years ago had the one where I received 2 inches of snow in about 20 minutes then last year had the one where I got 3 inches in under an hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is Sunday's potential out the door already?....there's still a scenario where we may start as a mix then to snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think Im going with Bernie on this threat. These are DTs thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is Sunday's potential out the door already?....there's still a scenario where we may start as a mix then to snow.... I wouldn't say its set in stone, but we need some meaningful changes to get anything out of it. The wave riding up the front slows it down so we just can't get the cold in here in time. GFS today shows redevelopment, but its still to late for anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Just saw Don S post in the main forum about the AO plunging to -5 or lower in about 10 days. That is pretty incredible, and you gotta think something big will pop somewhere when it starts to relax. Hopefully as he alluded to that portends well for continued blocky periods through the rest of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Crazy AO and NAO starting to show up towards the end up of the run. Why do I get this feeling we are gonna have to deal with suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Crazy AO and NAO starting to show up towards the end up of the run. Why do I get this feeling we are gonna have to deal with suppression. That is a possibility, as is keeping the storm track to far east, but with that being said we need something to help battle the pacific jet and help slow the flow down. It can't be any worse for snow chances than the Dec pattern so lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Not sure exactly what this means for our area but sounds like he is saying more interaction with north and southern jets? Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 6m6 minutes ago Decay of STR north of dateline convection has finally reduced inertial stability enough to allow coupling with STJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I am a fan of clippers. The last 2 winters my fav snow events were 2 over performing clippers with squall lines. 2 years ago had the one where I received 2 inches of snow in about 20 minutes then last year had the one where I got 3 inches in under an hour . Clippers always seem to be some of our best storms. 1. Temp are usually not an issue so just about always snow. 2. Tracks are usually close enough that we all get in on the action. 3. often times they overperform. Our odds are always better with a clipper than the bigger storms. Looks like ate next week we could see our first. I will take several clippers and one big snow event instead of the nickel and dime snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS finally shows the snow you would expect to see with a pattern and teleconnections we have. This is gonna be an interesting time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We could see a couple inches overnight Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We could see a couple inches overnight Sunday Bernie Rayno agrees and so does the GFS. So maybe 1-3 is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bernie Rayno agrees and so does the GFS. So maybe 1-3 is not out of the question. I used to listen somewhat to Bernie but last year I was not impressed with his forecasting so I quit listening to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I used to listen somewhat to Bernie but last year I was not impressed with his forecasting so I quit listening to him. Yeah.. I don't think he did very well for these parts last year. Also don't really put a lot of trust into what DT says for this area. Can't really blame him, though.. he's not from around these parts. I won't hold it against him too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will that storm be there at 0z? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Will that storm be there at 0z? lol. It will and it will be 150 miles west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Atleast we finally have things to track. I was getting close to stopping the constant tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I wouldn't mind a couple of inches sunday night....that 1-3" map looks decent for now...maybe that trough will dig more and sooner ahead of the pacific moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Will that storm be there at 0z? lol. Probably not, but it feels like some sort of victory to even see modeled snow at this point! Models might start showing more of these as they start to key in on the potential that it exists after we get past this weekend, question is will one of them work out for us? Just for fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Atleast we finally have things to track. I was getting close to stopping the constant tracking. Knowing you just from your posts, I don't believe that for a second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Knowing you just from your posts, I don't believe that for a second... Yeah I know I am just blowing smoke. Anyway, the Parallel Europe shows a good hit for us as well. Around 8 inches and the really good stuff isn't too far away. All guidance atleast looks good at the moment. This is gonna be an interesting week especially if the storm keeps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Interestingly enough the GFS back on New Years day had the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Sun/Mon storm looks like a 1-3 event. Those long range fantasy storms may not work out so dont want to look past what may be our biggest snow of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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