KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accqpf&rh=2016012212&fh=60&r=ma&dpdt= .2 QPF in the city. That might be 2-3 inches. South, you get to .5-.75 QPF, but that means maybe 6-8 or 6-9 in places like Uniontown and Brownsville. Based on the GFS I would be surprised to see anyone in AGC get more than 5, and as you go up towards the airport you get practically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At this point, if I am only getting 2-3 inches, I want it just to completely whiff please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=acc10snow&rh=2016012212&fh=90&r=ma&dpdt= And here is another one. 6 inch line doesn't make it past faith county and southern westmoreland, and 12 inch line doesn't even get anywhere near us...even for those south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Next!!! Atleast I can go out tonight and I don't have to shovel mounds of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Flakes slowly flying here already....maybe the storm moving quicker is bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At this point, if I am only getting 2-3 inches, I want it just to completely whiff please. Sorry, you get just enough to keep snow in the air to remind you on what you are missing out 50 miles to the South. (Not saying this to be a jerk, I'm in the same boat) Eastern and Central PA have a better shot at seeing a north trend because they will get some effects from the coastal deform band. We are pretty much reliant on the primary, and its just not going to make it far enough North. I hope I am eating crow tomorrow, but if I see more than 3 inches I'll be shocked. Might as well enjoy what falls, take a few days off then start looking for the next threat window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry, you get just enough to keep snow in the air to remind you on what you are missing out 50 miles to the South. (Not saying this to be a jerk, I'm in the same boat) Eastern and Central PA have a better shot at seeing a north trend because they will get some effects from the coastal deform band. We are pretty much reliant on the primary, and its just not going to make it far enough North. I hope I am eating crow tomorrow, but if I see more than 3 inches I'll be shocked. Might as well enjoy what falls, take a few days off then start looking for the next threat window. The next 7 days don't look promising at this point. A couple light clippers Tue and Thur that don't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry, you get just enough to keep snow in the air to remind you on what you are missing out 50 miles to the South. (Not saying this to be a jerk, I'm in the same boat) Eastern and Central PA have a better shot at seeing a north trend because they will get some effects from the coastal deform band. We are pretty much reliant on the primary, and its just not going to make it far enough North. I hope I am eating crow tomorrow, but if I see more than 3 inches I'll be shocked. Might as well enjoy what falls, take a few days off then start looking for the next threat window. Yes trout I am about the same as you. North of Pittsburgh is great to be for snow squalls and Lake effect but this storm not so much. I know I am getting older because this set up, although it disappoints me doesn't get me as upset as it used to. I always look on the bright side. I get to drive to Youngstown tonight for an event I wanted to go to that I can still do.... I do not have to shovel as much snow and I will be free to come and go this weekend. These are the storms that crush people because the expectations get out of hand. If I get 2-4 I will enjoy it like I would if we got 2-4 last week. If it over-performs all the better. Remember Feb 2010 came after many missed opportunities. For those of us that have been around the block we all know our area will fail a storm 8 times before we get one to enjoy. Enjoy what we get and I hope our posters south of here in Morgantown and Fayette and Washington Counties score big! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think we all knew this would be a long shot so we're happy to take what we can get, it just goes to remind us how rare it is for a big event in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=RAP&p=sfc&rh=2016012215&fh=18&r=conus&dpdt= SLP looks to be further west than models have shown on RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes trout I am about the same as you. North of Pittsburgh is great to be for snow squalls and Lake effect but this storm not so much. I know I am getting older because this set up, although it disappoints me doesn't get me as upset as it used to. I always look on the bright side. I get to drive to Youngstown tonight for an event I wanted to go to that I can still do.... I do not have to shovel as much snow and I will be free to come and go this weekend. These are the storms that crush people because the expectations get out of hand. If I get 2-4 I will enjoy it like I would if we got 2-4 last week. If it over-performs all the better. Remember Feb 2010 came after many missed opportunities. For those of us that have been around the block we all know our area will fail a storm 8 times before we get one to enjoy. Enjoy what we get and I hope our posters south of here in Morgantown and Fayette and Washington Counties score big! Well let's see after the past few years including 3 misses last year and one this year. I think we should get a good storm soon. I'm telling you that we will get an 8inch storm in March just because winter likes to troll us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR has 5-6 nose by tom morning into South Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 PBZ: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FRIDGES OF OURFORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARDOVER TN. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST BEYONDTWEAKING THE DEWPOINTS AS DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ANDNORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN THEDIURNAL CURVE SUGGESTED.JUST TO OUR SOUTH...THE WINTER STORM IS GETTING IT'S ACTTOGETHER...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY BEING REPORTED INSOUTHERN WV. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING RATHER ROBUSTRATES...WHICH SHOULD LIFT INTO OUR REGION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLEOF HOURS. AGAIN...SEE NO REASON TO TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS AT ONSET ATTHIS TIME. STILL LOOKING AT THE NEWEST MODEL DATA IN REGARD TO THECONTINUED NORTHWARD WOBBLE IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...WHICH COULDLEAD TO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN QPF/SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLYIN REGARD TO ANY DEFORMATION SNOW LATER TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 PBZ: Thats positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It has begun in Garrett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Saw this posted on Scott Harbaugh's twitter. He said this is pretty much his life on social media. I thought it nailed it. http://www.dennismersereau.com/2016/01/blizzard-2016-frequently-asked.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes trout I am about the same as you. North of Pittsburgh is great to be for snow squalls and Lake effect but this storm not so much. I know I am getting older because this set up, although it disappoints me doesn't get me as upset as it used to. I always look on the bright side. I get to drive to Youngstown tonight for an event I wanted to go to that I can still do.... I do not have to shovel as much snow and I will be free to come and go this weekend. These are the storms that crush people because the expectations get out of hand. If I get 2-4 I will enjoy it like I would if we got 2-4 last week. If it over-performs all the better. Remember Feb 2010 came after many missed opportunities. For those of us that have been around the block we all know our area will fail a storm 8 times before we get one to enjoy. Enjoy what we get and I hope our posters south of here in Morgantown and Fayette and Washington Counties score big! Yeah I hope they get pounded with snow. I know over the last couple years it seems the guys I-70 South got shafted on smaller events so I guess they are due. But really, I'm not one to wish only my area gets snow, and I'd take less if it meant more people got in on the fun. I'd love to see a storm smash Central Ohio, all of PA, the MA and up into New England. That being said, I'll still root for the models to bust and the precip shift North, I mean if the Steelers can get a fumble and 2 15 yard penalties against the Bengals to pull out a win anything is possible! I do agree that getting older makes it easier to cope with missing a big storm, heck even when my sports teams lose its not that big of a deal anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Saw this posted on Scott Harbaugh's twitter. He said this is pretty much his life on social media. I thought it nailed it. http://www.dennismersereau.com/2016/01/blizzard-2016-frequently-asked.html?m=1 Yep. I am on the edge of 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, I will say the radar looks way better than expected. Probably just a typical radar hallucination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Starting to notice stray small flakes in Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some stray flurries here in Monroeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah I hope they get pounded with snow. I know over the last couple years it seems the guys I-70 South got shafted on smaller events so I guess they are due. But really, I'm not one to wish only my area gets snow, and I'd take less if it meant more people got in on the fun. I'd love to see a storm smash Central Ohio, all of PA, the MA and up into New England. That being said, I'll still root for the models to bust and the precip shift North, I mean if the Steelers can get a fumble and 2 15 yard penalties against the Bengals to pull out a win anything is possible! I do agree that getting older makes it easier to cope with missing a big storm, heck even when my sports teams lose its not that big of a deal anymore. Well the GFS is showing just that. Too bad its long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the radar is north it could only mean one of two things...the storm is faster, or the precip field is expanding better than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well the GFS is showing just that. Too bad its long range 6 year anniversary storm? I'm all in for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I will also say looking at the surface low, it appears the primary is cutting pretty far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I will also say looking at the surface low, it appears the primary is cutting pretty far north... Its all about now casting. Keep it coming north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Charleston, WV has already received over 5 inches. Earlier they received 3 inches in about 40 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Um humm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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