KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is really squashing the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is a lot of moisture down there for sure, guess we'll find out soon enough how strong the dry air is in comparison. I'm sticking with the trend so far this winter, even if it has been for only minor events, of over-performance. There is a lot going on with this storm. I'd love to be able to compare it to 1996, but I don't know how the two storms behaved relative to one another. I was only 9 at the time that storm hit, not like I was tracking models or forecasting. Of course we didn't have these kinds of resources back then, either, so it would probably take a met who was forecasting at that time to explain any differences and similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Being an over performer will all depend on whether we can get the low to tuck in and hug the coast near the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is really squashing the precip field. yea, not looking as good there. HRRR doesn't look good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Low is about the best we can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the low does slide over the Chesapeake that's about as good as it could get for Western PA. Regardless this run would destroy the major cities on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Southern and Eastern AGC looks great for 8-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NOAA must be waiting for these short range models finish ,they have not updated pitt region discussion since 4 am. Confusion is a good thing if they are ,they might eating another doughnut ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Southern AGC looks great for 8-10 inches. The pink is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the low does slide over the Chesapeake that's about as good as it could get for Western PA. Regardless this run would destroy the major cities on the coast. Definitely. It's hard to put much stock seeing as how the Pro's are not even considering it. I guess if its over doing the LLJ off the Atlantic that would be the reason it's showing the higher totals move north since there is more moisture to fight off dry air pouring in from the NE. Given the Euro \ UKMET were better for us though that does give some validity though that creeping north another 50 miles isn't out of the question. I remember as a kid seeing forecasts for snow only to start hearing the ping ping of sleet, of course modeling is much better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Definitely gonna be interesting to see how far north the precip shield actually makes it. I guess we will find out in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the radar. Snow still not reaching the ground in Charleston despit radar returns approaching Morgantown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Southern and Eastern AGC looks great for 8-10 inches. This is the best run I have seen the past couple of days for Armstrong County. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For Mr. Wilson and some Pgh info too ..CRIPPLING WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ANDWESTERN MARYLAND...ALL EYES TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MAIN EVENT THISEVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN ALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLESOLUTIONS FOR MANY DAYS...A DEEPENING AND RAPIDLY MATURING UPPERLEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ANDREADYING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT INTO THEMIDDLE ATLANTIC.MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THEPAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH ONLY A MINUTE NORTHWARD JOG IN TERMS OFTHE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST SIDE DEFORMATION BANDRELATIVE TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. IT STILL SEEMS BASED UPON GOODRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE SREF AND GFS THAT THE BESTDEFORMATION ASCENT WILL TRANSIT A CORRIDOR FROM FAIRMONT TOUNIONTOWN AND SOUTHWARD. THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE QPF HASCONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST...DEFORMATIONMAXIMIZED...MOIST ADIABATIC ASCENT INTO THE TROWAL ISMAXIMIZED...AND A HIGHLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAM IS FORCINGINCREASING UPWARD AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION. THAT SAID...IT SEEMS THISAFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR IS WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD RATIONALLY GETOUT OF HAND. THIS IS NOT HYPE. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL.BUILDING SNOW TOTALS BASED UPON SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS GENERALLY ONTHE ORDER OF 10-12:1...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...STILLFAVORS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREAFROM FAIRMONT TO UNIONTOWN AND SOUTH. WITH ATLANTIC MOISTUREFEEDING RIGHT INTO THIS DEFORMATION ZONE AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENTCOMING INTO PLAY DURING THE HEART AND BACK END OF THE EVENT...THERIDGES WILL LIKELY DO EVEN BETTER. WIDESPREAD 18 TO 24 INCHAMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THERE...AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARELIKELY IN PORTIONS OF TUCKER COUNTY. SHOULD THE DEFORMATION BANDLINGER IN ANY LOCATION FOR MORE THAN A DAY OVER THERIDGES...AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXINGPOTENTIAL OF 35 MPH GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO BOUNDARYLAYER INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE LAYER. THIS WILLMEAN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHTTONIGHT...YIELDING LOCAL VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO. IF YOU CHOOSE TOGO OUT IN THIS...YOU WILL LIKELY BECOME STRANDED WITH LITTLE HOPEOF RESCUE FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME.TO THE NORTH...DEFORMATION LIFT WILL BE WORKING TO OVERCOME ASTIFF NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF DRY AIR. THE GRADIENT OF QPF STILLLOOKS TO EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF ZANESVILLE...THROUGHWHEELING...PITTSBURGH...AND INDIANA. FOR THISREASON...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3INCHES NORTH OF THESE CITIES...WHILE JUST SOUTH RUN QUICKLY TOWARD4 TO 7 INCHES OR MORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS FORTHE LATEST INFORMATION. HERE TOO...BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BEPOSSIBLE...THOUGH GUSTS WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN TOWARD 30 MPH.DEFORMATION ASCENT PEELS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOWTURNS NORTHWEST QUICKLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTHE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT WITHSTRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURESQUICKLY DOWN TOWARD -12 TO -15C. UNFORTUNATELY...NORTHWESTERLYFLOW EVEN WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITHBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SMACK DAB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTHREGION MEANS VERY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTOSATURDAY NIGHT IN THE RIDGES. THIS WILL MEAN A POWDERY COUPLE OFINCHES ON TOP OF THE MAMMOTH SNOW THAT WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SATURDAYNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AS WELL. LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONSTHAT CLEAR OUT AND HAVE WINDS DROP OFF WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE 0F.THIS WILL ONLY WORK TO HAMPER SNOW CLEAN UP EFFORTS THROUGH THEWEEKEND. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the radar. Snow still not reaching the ground in Charleston despit radar returns approaching MorgantownMy wife said it started snowing in the Charleston area 9:30. I talked to another person in Charleston and the streets in town are messed up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My wife said it started snowing in the Charleston area 9:30. I talked to another person in Charleston and the streets in town are messed up already. Thanks. The NWS uses the Yeager airport and is still showing as overcast. Now that I look it says at 8:54 am... Need a new site for current obs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is HORRIFIC for everybody, even places like Morgantown, Brownsville, and Uniontown look like they would struggle to hit more than 8 inches. Us...we might get 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is HORRIFIC for everybody, even places like Morgantown, Brownsville, and Uniontown look like they would struggle to hit more than 8 inches. Us...we might get 2. it's not a good sign but we are within 24 hrs. Gfs is not what we should be looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is HORRIFIC for everybody, even places like Morgantown, Brownsville, and Uniontown look like they would struggle to hit more than 8 inches. Us...we might get 2. Who is US? Still looks like 6+ possible for southern AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs still shows 5 inches in the metro. I don't see the panic. When is precip gonna get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs still shows 5 inches in the metro. I don't see the panic. When is precip gonna get here. Precip returns struggling to get above PA border. Looks like early evening for SoAGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's gonna be painful to see all of the dark blue try to force it's way up here only to weaken as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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