jwilson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's kind of bizarre how different the NAM has been all this time in terms of moisture placement. Honestly I'm used to seeing its inflated totals, but the plume of moisture is significantly farther north than the other "bigger name" models, and it has been there consistently. If it was one run you'd instantly write it off. While the moisture content might be overdone, you can't completely discount that it is a higher-resolution and specifically short-term model whereas the other models are more of the opposite. Not saying the NAM is right, but perhaps its guidance can be blended with the other models to create a forecast? I honestly don't know. I'm aware the verification percentage is most certainly lower on the NAM, though I'd be curious to see how those numbers compare once you're inside 24 hours. With all the deformation banding and convection going on with this amped system, I guess all bets are off. Of course maybe I'm just blowing smoke and the NAM tomorrow will resemble the GFS for some reason, even though it had plenty of information to go on in its run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hey folks one more major model and then nowcasting. Please remember that the model is not a final. The actual precip could be further north when it gets here. It is not an exact science. Just because the model doesn't shift 20 miles the storm could move 20 miles. Let's wait and be patient.Yeah, I'm sure the Euro isn't going to change much, but one more model to look at nonetheless. After that, we watch the radar, as the precip creeps closer, and see if it matches up with what the models have been showing. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That 18z gfs really made me think this may work out. 00z just crushed that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No matter what happens in my area.. this is going to be a classic storm and it has been a pleasure to watch it play out on the models over the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pretty neat tool on PBZ's winter page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So we are also riding the edge here to the west of you guys doing everything we can to suck this storm north. When I saw that snowfall map from '96, (here in Columbus we got 9" from that), I can't believe how similar it is to what the model output is for this storm, (except for the northern extent in the OV). The interesting thing was that storm was entirely a now cast situation here. The forecast the morning of was for a dusting. I know you guys got clobbered, but was that storm also a surprise for PIttsburgh? '96 was fairly well forecasted here. It had varying totals, but not this gradient from hell. I believe the final forecast was for 8-12" or maybe even 8-14". Airport total was 10", with ~12" downtown. South and south east did better....as i think there were a lot of 15-20" totals especially towards Morgantown. So i think the nowcasting/surprise component was in the southern and eastern parts of the area as i dont think those higher totals were expected even there. Great storm to be sure...just not historic for most of the immediate Pittsburgh area, so it left you wanting more considering what was going on to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pretty neat tool on PBZ's winter page... PBZSnowProbs.JPG Great find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well euro just jumped about 30-40 miles north. Now runs .5 streak through agc with 6-9 at bottom of agc. Just let us go in peace please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam also kept up its nonsense. A foot for agc. Central pa gets plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some strong wording in here... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/......CRIPPLING WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ANDWESTERN MARYLAND...ALL EYES TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MAIN EVENT THISEVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN ALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLESOLUTIONS FOR MANY DAYS...A DEEPENING AND RAPIDLY MATURING UPPERLEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ANDREADYING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT INTO THEMIDDLE ATLANTIC.MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THEPAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH ONLY A MINUTE NORTHWARD JOG IN TERMS OFTHE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST SIDE DEFORMATION BANDRELATIVE TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. IT STILL SEEMS BASED UPON GOODRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE SREF AND GFS THAT THE BESTDEFORMATION ASCENT WILL TRANSIT A CORRIDOR FROM FAIRMONT TOUNIONTOWN AND SOUTHWARD. THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE QPF HASCONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST...DEFORMATIONMAXIMIZED...MOIST ADIABATIC ASCENT INTO THE TROWAL ISMAXIMIZED...AND A HIGHLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAM IS FORCINGINCREASING UPWARD AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION. THAT SAID...IT SEEMS THISAFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR IS WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD RATIONALLY GETOUT OF HAND. THIS IS NOT HYPE. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL.BUILDING SNOW TOTALS BASED UPON SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS GENERALLY ONTHE ORDER OF 10-12:1...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...STILLFAVORS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREAFROM FAIRMONT TO UNIONTOWN AND SOUTH. WITH ATLANTIC MOISTUREFEEDING RIGHT INTO THIS DEFORMATION ZONE AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENTCOMING INTO PLAY DURING THE HEART AND BACK END OF THE EVENT...THERIDGES WILL LIKELY DO EVEN BETTER. WIDESPREAD 18 TO 24 INCHAMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THERE...AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARELIKELY IN PORTIONS OF TUCKER COUNTY. SHOULD THE DEFORMATION BANDLINGER IN ANY LOCATION FOR MORE THAN A DAY OVER THERIDGES...AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXINGPOTENTIAL OF 35 MPH GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO BOUNDARYLAYER INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE LAYER. THIS WILLMEAN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHTTONIGHT...YIELDING LOCAL VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO. IF YOU CHOOSE TOGO OUT IN THIS...YOU WILL LIKELY BECOME STRANDED WITH LITTLE HOPEOF RESCUE FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME.TO THE NORTH...DEFORMATION LIFT WILL BE WORKING TO OVERCOME ASTIFF NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF DRY AIR. THE GRADIENT OF QPF STILLLOOKS TO EXTEND FROM JUST SOUTH OF ZANESVILLE...THROUGHWHEELING...PITTSBURGH...AND INDIANA. FOR THISREASON...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3INCHES NORTH OF THESE CITIES...WHILE JUST SOUTH RUN QUICKLY TOWARD4 TO 7 INCHES OR MORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS FORTHE LATEST INFORMATION. HERE TOO...BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BEPOSSIBLE...THOUGH GUSTS WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN TOWARD 30 MPH.DEFORMATION ASCENT PEELS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOWTURNS NORTHWEST QUICKLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTHE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT WITHSTRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURESQUICKLY DOWN TOWARD -12 TO -15C. UNFORTUNATELY...NORTHWESTERLYFLOW EVEN WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITHBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SMACK DAB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTHREGION MEANS VERY EFFICIENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTOSATURDAY NIGHT IN THE RIDGES. THIS WILL MEAN A POWDERY COUPLE OFINCHES ON TOP OF THE MAMMOTH SNOW THAT WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SATURDAYNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AS WELL. LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONSTHAT CLEAR OUT AND HAVE WINDS DROP OFF WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE 0F.THIS WILL ONLY WORK TO HAMPER SNOW CLEAN UP EFFORTS THROUGH THEWEEKEND. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Guys I've been waiting for this-and so pumped this thing moved a little more north for you guys and now hopefully you all can cash in with at least 6" instead of 1-2!....I have a feeling the models are having a hard time with such warm water on the atlantic and the low tracking the way of snowpack-here's to an over-performer! get that low into the Delmarva and jackpot! Come this evening's news-you'll see Jeff V have his snow amounts go from 1-3 last night to 4-8 all of a sudden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No matter what happens in my area.. this is going to be a classic storm and it has been a pleasure to watch it play out on the models over the last week or so. I think you are in pretty good shape, although it will be gut wrenching if us guys to the North if we end up with coating to an inch I hope you post some pictures. I know I'll be in the MA thread, imagine when its all said and done they should have some epic drifts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nws dropped totals again. 1-3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My advisory currently says 2-3 north of Pittsburgh and 4-7 south of Pittsburgh. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nws dropped totals again. 1-3 now. Yeah, I saw the map on the facebook page, looks like they just compacted the gradient a bit more. There snowfall map looks like a mix of the Euro and 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are they using those models still when it's nowcast time-modeling like the HRRR and SREF's should be more Leaned on just a few hours from game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is no way this is not over performing for us here That precip field is much more expansive than the models were projecting it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is no way this is not over performing for us here That precip field is much more expansive than the models were projecting it to be. Agreed my friend!! totally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM has this storm nailed Here was NAM at 6Z versus actual radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 THe NAM is being disregarded SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER LATE SATURDAY -- THE NAM HAS ABIAS OF OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A TRENDAMONGST THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERLYSOLUTION, SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT QUICKER. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00ZGFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLYABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Ukie is preferred-lol and I thought the Ukie was dookie all along! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Radar definitely looks juiced up but like ritual said here yesterday we'll probably see some high dbz returns moving towards us only to dry up before they get here, it would be nice if the nam verified since it has seems to be inline with what the radar is showing up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is no way this is not over performing for us here That precip field is much more expansive than the models were projecting it to be. I will say if you just showed me that radar picture and I had no background info on the storm I'd say we were in for a pummeling though. I'm not sold on the over performer though, I think its well within the realm of possibility we see that precip shield just hit a brick wall around I-70. If the primary can make it a bit further north before transferring to the coast though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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