colonel717 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like a line of 2-3 inches thru AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Fries had written earlier that ratios could hit 17-20:1 during the secondary front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think those totals for low lands are generous. Eastern areas which high the higher elevation usually do better. One thing about LES is its so hit and miss. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think 1 inch area wide is a safe bet for everyone in SWPA and most will probably get a bit more so the 1-2 is warranted imo. This isn't a pure LES event either as we have a shortwave moving through and a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The HRRR sets up the heavy band in Ohio, although It's not particularly accurate at this range. How good is the HRRR with LES events? It does fairly well once in range, especially at showing squal lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Just had a heavier snow shower move through, nice coating on everything. Most snow on the ground this season now, but thats not saying much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 From DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 From DT The models are having a hard time with the pattern change. Im glad the Euro ensembles are on our side at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice band drooping SE from near I80. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 So far my area has gotten crap. If fact 30 was dry on way to work Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Looks like just North of the city is getting it. They usually do well in these events. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I live in the city and I have about an inch and its still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 So from the HRRR it looks like the winds are shifting and atleast the lake effect should be shut off for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Decent snow showers after the band. Not bad rates in the band, but only for 10 minutes or so. Probably half an inch in total with accumulating snow done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I ended up with about 1/3 - 1/2 inch at home. Drive in to Greenburg revealed only about a dusting. I thought an inch area wide would be pretty achievable given the setup, oh well onto next week to see if we can get something to go our way. At least there is now the possibility of something to track which is better than Dec, I just hope we don't end up cold and dry then relax into a warmer and wet pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Was just a bout to post this. If this slows down a bit to allow the cold air to press in ahead of it could be a legitimate shot at some frozen. The storm cutting into the Midwest over the weekend could play the part of a spoiler though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Was just a bout to post this. If this slows down a bit to allow the cold air to press in ahead of it could be a legitimate shot at some frozen. The storm cutting into the Midwest over the weekend could play the part of a spoiler though. We all must be desperate... I was just about to post same thing... Too bad not much snow at this point but good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Here is the 00z Euro from last night, looks close to the 12z GFS,Verbatim tracks to far west, but if we had cold in place this would probably be a classic SWPA slop storm. At 6-7 day lead time though with the eventual evolution being highly dependent on how the weekend midwest low plays out not much can be said other than a potential exists in that time frame. And here is the GEM, similar to 00z Euro in that the track would be more liquid with some wrap around snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Canadian tracks the same as well. Looks like our typical warm tongue rain while Ohio border and west gets the snow. Still very early. Don't want to be in the bulls-eye anyway. It could end up being a lake cutter or off the coast. Something finally to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Knowing our luck, the first storm will pummel the west including the NE Ohio border and the second will ride up the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Knowing our luck, the first storm will pummel the west including the NE Ohio border and the second will ride up the eastern seaboard. And just to make matters worse, after that the pattern breaks down and we see more Dec type indices .Nuetral to Postitive NAO \ EPO \ AO. GEFS and EPS starting to indicated by week 3 things start to go back to the above normal territory. Hopefully its wrong or at the very least brief as by then we will moving into the first week of Feb. I wouldn't jump off a cliff yet, but it is disheartening to see signs the pattern may be breaking down already but if we can score a good storm it won't matter, at the very least some decent cold is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well both the Gfs and CMC go balls to the wall cold after our most likely non existent snow storm. Hopefully in the cold we can score something. Our winters are getting harder and harder to track with each passing year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS Ensembles for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Seems like DT thinks something like this will happen. Apparently this is March 6 2011. I wonder how we did in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Seems like DT thinks something like this will happen. Apparently this is March 6 2011. I wonder how we did in that storm. 3.1 inches at the airport. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 FWIW....The good news is Accuweather for Jan/Feb Bethel Park at 7.3 inches rest of Jan and 23.4 for Feb... No big storms though. Max daily snow total is 3.8 inches. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/bethel-park-pa/15102/february-weather/5957_pc?monyr=2/1/2016&view=table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 EURO looks warm for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 EURO looks warm for Sunday. If only there was arctic air in place for the storm. Looks like it will be a rain storm with cold air following behind it but the even the cold air has been scaled back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If only there was arctic air in place for the storm. Looks like it will be a rain storm with cold air following behind it but the even the cold air has been scaled back. This storm wont be sampled until Thu 0z. Still hope for positive changes. This per accuweather poster I think the GEFS is catching on to this secondary system having more juice than originally anticipated. I like looking at trends on the SREF mean/members, especially for the 500 mb height / vort products. Comparing the most recent 09 and 21z SREF runs there appears to be the same consensus forming with the pair of compact preceding shortwaves going negative tilt and boosting up the eastern ridge by the 9th. At the same time, the newer SREF is also suggesting a a deeper, less positive tilt western trough and some of the members even have closed 500 mb low near the 4 corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 3.1 inches at the airport. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pbz It is showing only .8 inches on 3/6/11. Either way that would be our largest snow of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.