Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam is so tight it serves no purpose to argue better or worse. Probably worse for Pit official, but directionally very similar. Thats not great news at this stage of the game but not horrible either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Changed my avi again because at this point it's the most appropriate thing. You think we'd be used this after last year getting fringed and last minute shifts that screwed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 overlayed 18z NAM Copied from the Central forum, made by Voyager. Happy to see I might finally be in line to get more than 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still calling for 8" IMBY at GF's house in Woodland Hills through Sunday AM. The weenie contrarian in me thinks the heavier QPF creeps a little northwest of what the models say. Lots of other threads, even some in the bullseye think sick tight gradient does not pass the smell test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No idea how accurate they usually end up, but the SREF mean totals went up for all locations at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 post-317-0-33164800-1453409467.jpg overlayed 18z NAM Copied from the Central forum, made by Voyager. Happy to see I might finally be in line to get more than 1 inch. Three feet in Gettysburg..holley moley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4k NAM laughs at the NAM. The only reason I'm even kind of interested in tracking this is the SREFs don't want to back down. Curious to see the snowfall amounts in the cities at this point and how far north the low can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hi rez NAM gives Allegheny County almost nothing. I think this one is cooked. I doubt the SREFs are that accurate. The short range models from what I remember have a tendency to be too far NW, so even now casting is gonna be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jeff V on KDKA had flurries for tomorrow night. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 And now the gfs draws me back in. .5 inch qpf line approaching agc at hour 42 and prob still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder if that's just the precip shield just expanding. Either way most would atleast be somewhat happy with 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam leading the way lol. Those srefs are still a good sign. Mainly for trends and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Verbatim, using about a 12:1 ratio, you go from about 3 inches in nw agc, to 6 inches downtown, to 9 inches down near extreme SE agc. Brownsville probably gets a foot, and chalk hill gets 300 feet. I will take this run right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Meshes pretty well with the 3-6 call from the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Meshes pretty well with the 3-6 call from the nws. We can only hope this bumps 25 miles more. If it does, instead of that 3-9, range over the county, you are looking more at a 9-16 sort of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-317-0-66143100-1453413832.jpg From voyager in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Verbatim, using about a 12:1 ratio, you go from about 3 inches in nw agc, to 6 inches downtown, to 9 inches down near extreme SE agc. Brownsville probably gets a foot, and chalk hill gets 300 feet. I will take this run right now. Ha hahahah hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ha hahahah hilarious! I'm sure you would take it! This run would give you about 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnswahoo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This storm reminds me more of the one that took place in 1994 when Westmoreland Co (Eastern part) got 20 inches of snow and the Airport got one or two inches. It was that close then and I assume it will be that again tomorrow and Saturday. Just a little jog NW by 25 miles and everybody gets a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam is so tight it serves no purpose to argue better or worse. Probably worse for Pit official, but directionally very similar. Thats not great news at this stage of the game but not horrible either I think if anything maybe it kicked the higher totals further North, but actually cut the northern edge expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just hate when we get such huge drop offs and some of us get screwed....ill be getting flurries and reading posts like "man it's puking snow!" Or thundersnow!....."it's been ripping out there for 8 hours straight-I bet there's over a foot!" For once it would be nice if all of us cashed in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is an impossible forecast for NWS Pittsburgh. First off, how in the hell do you post advisories and warnings for a county when one part of the county might get two inches, and the opposite end of the county could get a foot? You would almost need to place warnings like they do severe weather warnings now, and localize the boxes at this point. Two, just in general, with such a sharp cut off, their is simply no way to know for sure. There are so many factors including exact low placement and track, and how far the price field expands with the confluence, that for Pittsburgh proper, for example, anything from nothing, to a foot truly is on the table right now when you consider a 25 mile shift either way could get you into either of those totals. Good luck to those guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just hate when we get such huge drop offs and some of us get screwed....ill be getting flurries and reading posts like "man it's puking snow!" Or thundersnow!....."it's been ripping out there for 8 hours straight-I bet there's over a foot!" For once it would be nice if all of us cashed in! Crap...I forgot it was you in Chalk Hill now lol. You need to change your name! Anyways, enjoy it. You look in a good spot to get a foot, and possibly get two feet. I wish my weekend retreat to chalk hill was this weekend. Would leave tomorrow morning and just enjoy the show...though getting back might end up an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Crap...I forgot it was you in Chalk Hill now lol. You need to change your name! Anyways, enjoy it. You look in a good spot to get a foot, and possibly get two feet. I wish my weekend retreat to chalk hill was this weekend. Would leave tomorrow morning and just enjoy the show...though getting back might end up an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is when being a meteorologist would be absolutely terrible. Kind of makes me glad I didn't pursue it. Imagine telling a major city hey you are gonna get 1-2 inches but then boom the storm shifts. Look at laSt year with NYC. Historic was being thrown around and just an ordinary moderate snowstorm occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Crap...I forgot it was you in Chalk Hill now lol. You need to change your name! Anyways, enjoy it. You look in a good spot to get a foot, and possibly get two feet. I wish my weekend retreat to chalk hill was this weekend. Would leave tomorrow morning and just enjoy the show...though getting back might end up an issue.... Thank you brother! You come up here sometimes??...hit meUp-you should make the trip tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 AN ENHANCED MESOSCALE BANDING OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCURACROSS NORTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST PA...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH AS TROWAL IS EVIDENT FROM ANALYSIS AND DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS GREATEST IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER OVER THESE AREAS. PBZ mentions a trowal in its discussion. Never heard that term before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thank you brother! You come up here sometimes??...hit me Up-you should make the trip tomorrow!! Wish I could! I go up a weekend in February every year with a bunch of friends, and we rent a beautiful home out and just generally play games, drink, eat, and have a good time. I was a little worried that this year that our outdoor activities might be squashed by the lack of snow, but as long as we don't completely torch it should be good. The weather up there though is something. 2 years ago I went up, and while pittsburgh had 2 inches on the ground, chalk hill had 2 feet, and we got about 6 more inches over the weekend. Last year, there was only a foot on the ground, but that was the historic cold weekend, and I think when I went out the one morning it was -17 below zero. Literally, the pipes in our rental froze the morning we left and we had no running water at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My friend from WTOV9 told me yesterday he was talking about a trowal on a conference call yesterday afternoon with several other mets....he said it's just basically a very heavy squall to explain it to me to understand-lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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