colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is the 96 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is the 96 track That track looks like it hugged the coast and maybe even ticked nw a bit near maryland? Tomorrow's storm seems to hug til about virginia then shoot east. Pretty soon it will be nowcasting range anyway so just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anything under 2 inches I would consider underperforming; and anything over 7 I would consider overperforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do not want to be sucked back in but is the Euro a little North this run or am I not seeing thing correctly? Or it may just be the precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do not want to be sucked back in but is the Euro a little North this run or am I not seeing thing correctly? I thought it was a little more west but not sure that is going to make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I thought it was a little more west but not sure that is going to make any difference. I know it is minor but we still have one more day for a shift. As long as there is no movement south. We are so close so any shift may help the southern counties get another inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have been watching this from afar. Not getting sucked in by NAM last night. Only way we see anything over 1-2 is if this either gets captured or WAA allows this to stay a little further west. I think 1-3 is a safe call and maybe this storm has a surprise. Other than that, look at next week. A bunch of clippers and another possible storm originating out of the GOM. Only thing I will say is atleast I don't have to shovel my whole gravel driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have been watching this from afar. Not getting sucked in by NAM last night. Only way we see anything over 1-2 is if this either gets captured or WAA allows this to stay a little further west. I think 1-3 is a safe call and maybe this storm has a surprise. Other than that, look at next week. A bunch of clippers and another possible storm originating out of the GOM. Only thing I will say is atleast I don't have to shovel my whole gravel driveway. I figured you were watching from afar... Cant believe I got more from yesterday than I may get from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've seen storms like this, as they get captured near the coast, end up making a small "loop" in the Atlantic which brings them NW a tad. At this point it looks like that sort of cyclogenesis is certainly possible, if not nearly probable based on the model consistency we've had. I do find it odd the SREF and NAM are so far north, but I've never put too much stock in either of those models. The NAM has only won one coup in all the time I've been model observing. We still do have a little time for adjustments, but by 12Z tomorrow everything is going to be locked in and massive changes - from a modeling standpoint - are not at all likely to occur. That said, the theme this winter so far has been over-performance, so I'm going to stick with that until the trend stops. We picked up 2" last night from what was supposed to be next to nothing. How much I would gauge we over-perform, well, I guess that depends on which model you follow for the forecast. Of course a lot also depends on where the deformation bands set up. As long as that goes far enough north you'll definitely have a good shot at verification or greater. Models aren't perfect - as evidence by yesterday alone - and dynamic weather events like this are extremely hard to predict. Remember that models are based on information and calculations inputted by humans, and we hardly have a supreme knowledge of nature's weather systems. It's really all "best guess." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder if an overperformer like Jan 96 is even possible these days with how many models and how much data is available. I would like to think that anything can happen with mother nature but who knows? I would guess it is possible. We've seen the opposite occur not all that long ago (March 2001), and including what I wrote in the previous post, it seems to me that dynamic storm systems create unique environments that can't be precisely predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Got bumped up to 8-12". Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would guess it is possible. We've seen the opposite occur not all that long ago (March 2001), and including what I wrote in the previous post, it seems to me that dynamic storm systems create unique environments that can't be precisely predicted. Good point and I am hoping so, it definitely makes things more interesting that way. Good luck down there you look to do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Robert Suhr What are your thoughts on the latest SREF guidance...I also saw the morning runs of the NAM were putting out some impressive snow totals US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA The NAM seems to be more of an outlier right now, and that is also influencing the higher totals on the SREF. So, we are putting less weight on that solution. Bryan Mathews What model blend was used for this map? This far out do you lean toward shorter range models? US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA We generally will use a blend of models as well as guidance from the Weather Prediction Center in DC or the River Forecast Center in Wilmington OH to come up with our precipitation forecasts. Then we need to figure out a snow-to-liquid ratio to come up with accumulations. It's a complex process for sure! Brian Gulish Do you see any chance the storm jogs further north over the next 24 hours, therefore increasing snow amounts across the region. If so, why would that happen? US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA Yes, wobbles are possible. They would be particularly impactful in this case, since there will be a sharp edge to storm totals. The storm track would have the most influence on that, as well as small-scale convective features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 tbh, all these snow maps are pretty and everything, but because the gradient is so tight no one knows. a 30 mile "wobble" is the difference in downtown pgh between 2" and 6". That said, 3-6 for agc is a pretty good call, and its just as likely that cranberry could get 1" and Clariton gets 10" I did just get an email that a bunch of county courts in WVA are closed tomorrow. So there's that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder if an overperformer like Jan 96 is even possible these days with how many models and how much data is available. I would like to think that anything can happen with mother nature but who knows? It seems unlikely this day and age anything could be that off so close to the event unfolding. However, given that only a 25 mile shift will drastically change sensible weather for someone with this particular storm and 25 miles isn't really much to a model there could be some surprises good or bad. If I manage to get 4 out of this being in northern Westmoreland I'll call that a victory, less than 2 under performer and 6 or more over performer. That' my feelings right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well high pressure is weaker and everyone believes the NAM is north fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well high pressure is weaker and everyone believes the NAM is north fwiw. Precip is about 10-20 miles north on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip is about 10-20 miles north on 18z. At least it's something to keep an eye on. I know we are not gonna see 6+ but this storm definitely has some surprises up its sleeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its a huge jump north for northeast pa. not as much for us but it is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is worse for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its a huge jump north for northeast pa. not as much for us but it is north Yea it doesn't really help us but there is a streak of energy trying to phase in wonder if that would help throw more precip west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One County away and they get a foot. Oh the irony of storm tracking. On to the next one. Even if this does move north. It doesn't really help us on the western side. It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is worse for us. Have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One County away and they get a foot. Oh the irony of storm tracking. On to the next one. Even if this does move north. It doesn't really help us on the western side. It That was the 12z I mistakenly posted and deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just crazy that we could potentially be a county away from nothing and a county away from a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 It wont allow me to post, but looks better than 12z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 It wont allow me to post, but looks better than 12z to me. Only for NE PA it's better. It's actually worse for us. Drops from 8 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even when a model comes north it's still south for us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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