RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It really is a shame that confluence can't be a bit weaker. That is what is really killing this for us. AGC is like the battle zone between a nice moderate snowfall and nothing. Living in NW Westmoreland county I'm pretty well on the fringe too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It really is a shame that confluence can't be a bit weaker. That is what is really killing this for us. AGC is like the battle zone between a nice moderate snowfall and nothing. Living in NW Westmoreland county I'm pretty well on the fringe too. Well, it isn't going to take much. If confluence is slightly weaker, we will likely see a warning level event. Even 25 miles right now in expanding the precip field would be huge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has the RGEM run since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, it isn't going to take much. If confluence is slightly weaker, we will likely see a warning level event. Even 25 miles right now in expanding the precip field would be huge . Agree, this storm has the possibility to really make NWS \ Mets look bad in the eyes of the public. If we see a 25-50 mile NW expansion of the precipitation given that gradient someone without even an advisory could hit warning criteria, on the flip side if it slides another 25-50 miles SE people in the current advisory \ warning area will be saying why did we even have an advisory for flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, it isn't going to take much. If confluence is slightly weaker, we will likely see a warning level event. Even 25 miles right now in expanding the precip field would be huge . Wouldn't take much...? well with the NAM significantly south as you say wouldn't it take significant changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Colonel any more recent models that have us in the honey?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z Heavier precip makes it further north but northern extent of snow looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS still south of the NAM. Now we just need one of the crazy SREF models to be correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just realized I probably have more time per inches of snow invested in this than I would ever care to admit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just realized I probably have more time per inches of snow invested in this than I would ever care to admit.... Me too. I was almost to the point yesterday afternoon where I completely threw in the towel.. Then the 0z runs happened and sucked me back in lol. These last 5 days were fun tracking but the end result looks like it is not gonna pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My brother lives in Delaware and just said he is under a Blizzard Watch. I said so are we.......... at Dairy Queen.... uggh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Me too. I was almost to the point yesterday afternoon where I completely threw in the towel.. Then the 0z runs happened and sucked me back in lol. These last 5 days were fun tracking but the end result looks like it is not gonna pay off. I think many of us got NAMed last night.. The reason I got so excited about the NAM was due to all of the new info into it and I thought it was onto something and was expecting other guidance to do the same. When the GFS wasn't that great I thought well the big change with it may come at later runs, too bad I was wrong....At this point 1-3 north of city 2-6 south looks about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think many of us got NAMed last night.. The reason I got so excited about the NAM was due to all of the new info into it and I thought it was onto something and was expecting other guidance to do the same. When the GFS wasn't that great I thought well the big change with it may come at later runs, too bad I was wrong....At this point 1-3 north of city 2-6 south looks about it. GooFuS is being GooFuS, even Bernie Rayno said storm straight east is not a track he has seen very much. Bernie is a Big Euro fan & it is doing same thing with low straight east. listen the places that have been in bullseye for days now are going to get it. everyone else is basically waiting to see what storm "actually" does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 AccuRayno It is amazing and sad to me to watch how one model one can control days of thoughts.As I said more changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just can't wrap my head around the gradient, I mean I know 2010 had it, but was even that this sharp? We've "lost" more snowstorms to poorly modeled confluence than I'd even like to remember. When we need less of it, it comes in stronger, when we need more its weaker lol The piece of energy swinging around is just the worst timing. Usually when a storm falls apart you don't miss 10+ totals by 50 miles and end up 1 inch which I think is the part that irritates me the most should that end up verifying. Probably going to be a lot of radar hallucinations tomorrow night as we see high dbz returns heading for us only to see them dry out on arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Last chance is the Canadian but I am pretty sure it will say the same thing. Well another up and down ride and in the end we all know the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian is south too. Looks like a 2-4 for South Hills and flurries for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Going with the EURO cash money avatar. Gotta change the juju again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian is south too. Looks like a 2-4 for South Hills and flurries for me. Yeah. Get rid of that AVI after that run. Oh well. I'll be shoveling instead of snow blowing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just can't wrap my head around the gradient, I mean I know 2010 had it, but was even that this sharp? We've "lost" more snowstorms to poorly modeled confluence than I'd even like to remember. When we need less of it, it comes in stronger, when we need more its weaker lol The piece of energy swinging around is just the worst timing. Usually when a storm falls apart you don't miss 10+ totals by 50 miles and end up 1 inch which I think is the part that irritates me the most should that end up verifying. Probably going to be a lot of radar hallucinations tomorrow night as we see high dbz returns heading for us only to see them dry out on arrival. I think that is the most frustrating part for me. Are we still in that crazy of a blocking regime? Like you said, countless times when a storm starts trending north it just keeps going. This time, even if we get a slight shift north it seems go right back south a bit on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The good news is we have a couple clippers modeled next week. Those are our wheelhouse for over producing. Get on the clipper train... Who really wants 18+ inches snow anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Going with the EURO cash money avatar. Gotta change the juju again.. I changed my Elsa avatar to the Blizzard of 1993 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PBZ was getting hammered on their Facebook page last night. I was amused when someone would post a GFS graphic and the PBZ would say, "We already have this information." LOL! Still feel like 6-8" for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm still optimistic of this being more than what's modeled ..,complex storms are hard to pick up on via models .i used to optimistic not no more unless I move to buffalow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ukie on the other thread wasn't awful. 10-15 ml it looks like across agc which is .4-.6qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm still optimistic of this being more than what's modeled ..,complex storms are hard to pick up on via models .i used to optimistic not no more unless I move to buffalow ? I don't think it would shock anyone here if it were to over-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think it would shock anyone here if it were to over-perform. Lol it would me. Unless we are calling 5 inches over performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A CONTINUATION OF THE TREND OF PREVIOUS DAYS' MODEL RUNS RAISES CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MOST CONSISTENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE CANADIAN...WHICH FALLS NICELY IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND GEFS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST DEFORMATION THROUGH THE EVENT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS WITHIN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SOLUTIONS AS WELL...SO THE FORECAST WAS GENERALLY BUILT AROUND A CONSENSUS OF THE CANADIAN/GEFS/SREF/GFS. OF OTHER NOTE WOULD BE THE OUTLYING NAM SOLUTION...WHICH ERRONEOUSLY OVER DEVELOPS DEFORMATION ASCENT AND MOISTURE FEED...INCLUDING A TRACK THAT VARIES WELL NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF DID FINALLY START TO EDGE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS PACK WITH A MUCH MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS HAS RAISED CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUCH THAT ALL WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AND INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS CURRENTLY EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS SET TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE EJECTING UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH MEANS ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. MOST SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO FAVOR 800-600 MB DEFORMATION LIFTING TOWARD NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST PA LATE FRIDAY AND LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WHICH YIELDS A FAIRLY LONG RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEEDS BACK INTO THE ATTENDANT TROWAL AIRSTREAM WHERE STRONG 285-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING IN A HIGHLY CURVED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. ALL OF THIS WILL WORK TO FOCUS BOTH LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE LIFT GENERALLY IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHWESTERN PA. QPF VALUES WERE BUILT AROUND CONSENSUS OF WPC/CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS NUMBERS WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION PAID TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION FIELD. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS FAVOR A MUCH MORE DENSE SNOW THAN RECENT SNOWS. AS SUCH...SLRS IN THE RIDGES WERE GENERALLY BUILT AROUND 12:1...TAPERING TO AROUND 10:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS APPROACH FAVORS AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT...WITH OVER TWO FEET POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...AND AMOUNTS GENERALLY JUST BELOW A FOOT IN THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CORRIDOR FROM JUST SOUTH OF ZANESVILLE THROUGH WHEELING...PITTSBURGH...AND INDIANA IN A STRONG GRADIENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN PARTICULAR AROUND PITTSBURGH...THE VERY CONSISTENT FORECAST OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND AROUND 6 IN FAR SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY STILL SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MOST OTHER COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY PULLS AWAY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STRONG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS GOING INTO THE NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OVER THE NEW SNOW. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder if an overperformer like Jan 96 is even possible these days with how many models and how much data is available. I would like to think that anything can happen with mother nature but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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