ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If all of these models are south, how did I just get bumped to warning status this morning for 7-11"??.....what does the NWS use for their forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 on another note-there's a fresh 3.5" out there this morning of fluff!....hell-I guess if I get 3 more saturday I'll be happy I guess-I just don't know what is being seen when they go from a watch to a WARNING this morning calling for 7-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoTransplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The low tracked farther north and hugged the coast a little tighter, NWS PBZ mentions this in their disco. Even the euro SLP track did this, it just produced a weaker precip shield than the GFS and NAM. Today should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If all of these models are south, how did I just get bumped to warning status this morning for 7-11"??.....what does the NWS use for their forecast? There were plenty of shifts last night that support that for Fayette County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 on another note-there's a fresh 3.5" out there this morning of fluff!....hell-I guess if I get 3 more saturday I'll be happy I guess-I just don't know what is being seen when they go from a watch to a WARNING this morning calling for 7-11" Are you in Farmington? I guarantee you will get a good warning snow fall amount. The warning were def needed for Fayette, Weatmoreland ridges, Greene. Shocked State College hasn't put Somerset in a warning yet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Are you in Farmington? I guarantee you will get a good warning snow fall amount. The warning were def needed for Fayette, Weatmoreland ridges, Greene. Shocked State College hasn't put Somerset in a warning yet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk yea Im in Chalk Hill-about a mile from farmington....but colonel was saying EURO and GFS were both south overnight...I liked the SREF plumes he sent-which seem to correlate to the increase in snowfall potential....but if the NWS uses the traditional models, then it looks like I'm right on the fringe of 6".....I hope this thing goes north to help you guys out around PITT-so frustrating....hopefully after today's 12z it will be locked in to either celebrate of be frustrated again ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 yea Im in Chalk Hill-about a mile from farmington....but colonel was saying EURO and GFS were both south overnight...I liked the SREF plumes he sent-which seem to correlate to the increase in snowfall potential....but if the NWS uses the traditional models, then it looks like I'm right on the fringe of 6".....I hope this thing goes north to help you guys out around PITT-so frustrating....hopefully after today's 12z it will be locked in to either celebrate of be frustrated again ....... Colonel is wrong. Euro bumped towards the north, and gfs was relatively the same as 0z but just a less expansive field to the north. SREF continued north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 yea Im in Chalk Hill-about a mile from farmington....but colonel was saying EURO and GFS were both south overnight...I liked the SREF plumes he sent-which seem to correlate to the increase in snowfall potential....but if the NWS uses the traditional models, then it looks like I'm right on the fringe of 6".....I hope this thing goes north to help you guys out around PITT-so frustrating....hopefully after today's 12z it will be locked in to either celebrate of be frustrated again ....... It was probably a little premature... I just got on board a little sleepy eyed..and saw the maps without doing any evaluation. The northern extent of snow on GFS wasn't as good due to more confluence but the storm itself wasn't more south from further evaluation. The maps just gave that appearance. On the NAM I mis-red the red color. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD511 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016VALID 12Z THU JAN 21 2016 - 12Z SUN JAN 24 2016DAYS 1 THROUGH 3......WEST... HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ANOMALOUSLY FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERIORTO FORM A SHARP UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THU. ANAMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PAC WILL ATTEMPT TOADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ON THU... AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE TRIESTO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA. THE SOUTHERLYTRAJECTORY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SPELL HEAVYACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES. THEN ON FRI... THEUPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM... THE SYSTEM REACHING THE WESTCOAST ON THU WILL SHEAR INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WHILEANOTHER VERY FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROLL INTONORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OFHEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA....LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS INTO MID-ATLSTATES AND NORTHEAST... PHASING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREEXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWERMS VALLEY THU EVENING. THIS IS FORECAST TO MARK THE ONSET OF WHATIS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION AND ISEXPECTED TO IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROMTHE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ANDPARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.PHASING SHORTWAVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TOESTABLISH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH A MID-UPPER CENTER CLOSING OFFOVER THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OFTHE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL DIRECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULFOVER A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD WINTRYPRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWEROHIO VALLEYS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOLSTERED BY FAVORABLE UPPER JETFORCING AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...THE MODELS ARE SHOWINGAN INCREASING INDICATION FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSSKENTUCKY AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.BY LATE FRI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THEEAST...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW THEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WITH ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO ALOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG MOISTUREADVECTION AFFORDED BY AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTERACTINGWITH COLD AIR DAMMING WITH ENSURE WIDESPREAD FROZEN PRECIPITATIONACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FURTHER TO THENORTH. FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESISALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE THEPROBABILITY OF HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE VA/MD PIEDMONT BACK INTOTHE BLUE RIDGE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.BY EARLY SAT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS TRACK NORTH ALONGTHE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A WELL-DEFINED COMM-AHEAD MOVINGFROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THEMID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IMPACTED WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWACCUMULATIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ITS PLACEMENT HAS BEEN TEMPERED BYMODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THEEUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK FASTER AND PAINT HEAVIER AMOUNTSFURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE NCEP MODELS. THE WPC FORECAST WASLARGELY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.PEREIRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Great link for all model information http://stormhamster.com/models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snow projected to start after 9pm Friday based off WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFS is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFS is north. Sref is a pretty massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM though is quite south through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM though is quite south through 24 hours. Probably just correcting towards the other models. It's been the northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably just correcting towards the other models. It's been the northern outlier. When do points under a WWA go to a WSW is the question of the day. I think our worst fears were not realized overnight(A sprint on the models south). An aggregate view of the models show an undoubted northern tick to the storm, and all but Butler County northwards should keep an eye out. I think anyone thinking in Pitt we will be getting 3-4" is whistling Dixie. Better make sure your snowblowers start guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Accuweather weanie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That guy must live on the coast. .lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When do points under a WWA go to a WSW is the question of the day. I think our worst fears were not realized overnight(A sprint on the models south). An aggregate view of the models show an undoubted northern tick to the storm, and all but Butler County northwards should keep an eye out. I think anyone thinking in Pitt we will be getting 3-4" is whistling Dixie. Better make sure your snowblowers start guys. NAM is significantly south. It is an extreme fringe job...I think 2-4 is a safe call for now. If gfs bumps north ok, but nam going south is really a bad indicator for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is significantly south. Doesn't look that significant to me. 20 inch line reaches southern agc from what I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Doesn't look that significant to me. 20 inch line reaches southern agc from what I can tell I'm going to need a link for that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When do points under a WWA go to a WSW is the question of the day. I think our worst fears were not realized overnight(A sprint on the models south). An aggregate view of the models show an undoubted northern tick to the storm, and all but Butler County northwards should keep an eye out. I think anyone thinking in Pitt we will be getting 3-4" is whistling Dixie. Better make sure your snowblowers start guys. I don't see any scenario where PBZ gets warning criteria snows. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the 20" line is south east to me. Possibly reaching Somerset. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't see any scenario where PBZ gets warning criteria snows. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Lol...of course you don't! Anywhere in the pittsburgh zone at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't see any scenario where PBZ gets warning criteria snows. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk From NWS site: Winter Storm Warning Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one hazard present, and one of the warning criteria listed above is expected to be met. For example, it would be issued if 5 inches of snow were expected in 12 hours, with some sleet mixing in at times. It is commonly issued for heavy snow with strong winds of 25-34 mph that will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. A Winter Storm Watch is issued when these conditions may be met 12 to 48 hours in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This actually looks slightly north to me from 6z. All of westmoreland and most of allegheny look over 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This actually looks slightly north to me from 6z. All of westmoreland and most of allegheny look over 6 inches Let's go with the meme it's a 3-4" storm to me.... works in the face of all the facts and the NWS issues an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Waynesburg, wowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.