Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 These 12 z s coming. Will they be the sampled virety ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 4 to 7 ⛷ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Being the eternal optimist I like where we are at. How many dozens of times since 2008(How long I have been here) have we seen 2 foot fantasy storms disappear 24 hours out. I think (and the NWS discussions bear this out) we have some wobble in the storm as it approaches and everyone from I-80 south walks away very happy. Not 3 foot happy but happy after this never ending Fall we were experiencing up to a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Honestly I expected worse overnight. I think we will still have a chance for this to come north a bit. Keep up the good juju Colonel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From my untrained eye, I think the NAM ticks north with the norther edge of precip. Looking at hr 39 compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 4 to 7 I'm thinking you are about right, tight gradient. Greensburg 12" Butler 4" and the Laurels pounded with over a foot. Then again we could bust way low, the storm wobbles 50 miles north. Take it for what it's worth but my honey's brother works for the city of North Versailles and they have been told no PTO this weekend, be ready to man the trucks, big storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z para GFS has us with well over an inch qpf region wide. That probably is the model that gives us the most snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's not sampled yet how is it set in stone? For us it's not set in stone, I was just saying "IF" it plays out like that. I do think the Baltimore area is pretty well locked in for a crushing though no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Trough looks a little more negative tilted 63 hours 00z vs 57 hour 12z, energy out west looks stronger and the over trough is digging more though so not sure it means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Precip came much north from 6z good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Precip came much north from 6z good trend Not really because compared to 12z i think its south. So not really a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So now we just need the GFS to show us some north movement and we can be back in the game for atleast a possibility of warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM put Allegheny County into a 1-2 inch snowfall barely. Remember we still have 2 days so all we can ask for is a little further north each time and we get into the 4-6, 6-8 scenario. If it doesn't move any more we only get the inch or so.(Unless you are south and east.) Still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not really because compared to 12z i think its south. So not really a trend Its in better range for the NAM from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One County away and they are in 14 inches. I would hate to see it play out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM was a very slight improvement in terms of northern extent of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One County away and they are in 14 inches. I would hate to see it play out that way. Just be glad it didn't go south again. 7 more NAM runs until Friday 12z to get that tick north. Plus GFS is better for us and don't let the NAM at this range affect your thinking. It has us in the game and that is all I am watching for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That cutoff is so sharp right around pittsburgh wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If this doesn't make you sick I don't know what will! This reminds me of a storm we had 2 years ago, were I got literally a quarter inch of snow, but Greensburg got like 8. I ended up having the day off work and didn't even have to shovel anything. Thanks to guys in the Central PA thread for the county overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For us it's not set in stone, I was just saying "IF" it plays out like that. I do think the Baltimore area is pretty well locked in for a crushing though no matter what. Remember last. Year and year befour they were set up for monster storms then went to 4 inches or something. I hope we all get blasted with 5 feet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM put Allegheny County into a 1-2 inch snowfall barely. Remember we still have 2 days so all we can ask for is a little further north each time and we get into the 4-6, 6-8 scenario. If it doesn't move any more we only get the inch or so.(Unless you are south and east.) Still time I think you are looking at 6z map. 12z has 4+ inches for all AGC, 6+ in south and east AGC. 3+ in northern AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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