colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I love how you keep changing that profile pic colonel!....yesterday was pure weenie, today you're a weenie snowman! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I love how you keep changing that profile pic colonel!....yesterday was pure weenie, today you're a weenie snowman! lol It was the weenie snowman yesterday. I think I just didnt realize that the head didnt show up on the pic so it may have been the weenie for a few minutes as I went in and re-cropped it.. I have to leave this pic now as it seems to have brought some good juju.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It was the weenie snowman yesterday. I think I just didnt realize that the head didnt show up on the pic so it may have been the weenie for a few minutes as I went in and re-cropped it.. I have to leave this pic now as it seems to have brought some good juju.. SWEEEET!!! keep that juju coming! I hope the sampled energy gets everyone on board with the northern solution....for everyone's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Geez, 6z GFS goes from about .3 total qpf in NW Allegheny County to over 1in qpf in SE. Crazy gradient, and it always seems these things setup so close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just looking at some things for the Maryland \ DC area, wow that area is going to get pummeled. Absolutely incredible blizzard conditions. DC will be shut down for days, they may talk about this for decades after like we remember March 93. Gotta admit I am pretty jealous, and it will really sting if we miss the bigger accumulations by 75 miles or less and end up with just light snow or flurries to remind us about what we are missing out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This should be fully sampled with the next runs. It would be nice to get just one more tick to the north so we all can be involved in the significant accumulations. Forecast discussion mentioned that a sharp cutoff will be likely in this area. I'd like to see that pushed a little more to the north. Any slight adjustment can mean anywhere from next to nothing to maybe close to a foot. A lot still in play with this. It starts today. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Take it with a grain of salt, but NWS said on their Facebook page a Winter Storm Watch seems unlikely for North of I-70 and the Metro area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why are we fretting the EURO so much... From NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWNTHE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THEGREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OFTHESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THESTEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THEGFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF ISSO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUSIN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALLIN THE BLENDING PROCESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Take it with a grain of salt, but NWS said on their Facebook page a Winter Storm Watch seems unlikely for North of I-70 and the Metro area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That makes sense considering the uncertainty in our area right now. There's going to be such a tight gradient in the area that the northern part of Allegheny County might only see a few inches while the southern part could see warning criteria. As of now, Allegheny County is right in the middle of that tight gradient. What else is new. If it's not a rain/snow line cutting right through the county, it's something like this. This could change one way or the other depending on future model runs. The 12z will tell us more, one way or the other. A slight tick either way will make a huge difference.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Take it with a grain of salt, but NWS said on their Facebook page a Winter Storm Watch seems unlikely for North of I-70 and the Metro area. Not really what they said, but ok... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Didn't read comments..you didn't post or link that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just looking at some things for the Maryland \ DC area, wow that area is going to get pummeled. Absolutely incredible blizzard conditions. DC will be shut down for days, they may talk about this for decades after like we remember March 93. Gotta admit I am pretty jealous, and it will really sting if we miss the bigger accumulations by 75 miles or less and end up with just light snow or flurries to remind us about what we are missing out on. It's not sampled yet how is it set in stone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 These tight gradients are brutal. In 2009 - 10 winter we were looking at a spread of over 12" in the matter of 20 miles or so. I was in the Philly suburbs that winter and Philly recorded almost double what I did on each storm, 17 miles as the crow flies away. It feels like we haven't had that wide-swath storm (something akin to '96) since PDII in 2003. Even that February 5-6 storm in 2010 had a sharp cutoff to the north and weird lollipops. But that's what occurs in a mixed-Miller environment. Looks like we may be missing out on a true Miller A again. That said it won't take much of a shift to get everyone in the game, but this storm really seems like a DC special, much like 2010. They've been in the bullseye since Sunday minus one or two model runs. I have a friend that lives in Hagerstown, MD. Maybe I should go visit and see if I can invite all you guys hah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this is going to come down to a last minute trend. As long as we stay in the game until Friday, I think we will be okay for a late north trend. If we are looking for a 100 -200 last minute trend think that would be too much, but I think a last minute 25 - 50 mile trend could benefit us. I know what I said about not trusting him... But, in watching Bernie Rayno morning video, due to lack of true arctic air he thinks the coastal has room to come more inland near mid-atlantic causing mixing issues for Balt/DC. That is not his forecast at this times, just something to watch. We need this as close to land if not on land as possible to benefit us. I don't think that will be determine until very late in the game so no one jump ship should the trends be not so great today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think if it's going to trend North it's going to have to start showing a bit more North movement soon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It pisses me off that my cousin in Kentucky continues to see bigger storms than us. Congrats to DC and Maryland but at this point I think 6 is gonna be hard to even come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Justin Berks says this is the low accumulation total he is confident in; not that he has low confidence in the number:"My First call for snowfall. This is my high confidence low number. I’ve added a + to highlight the upside potential. I use a low number here to account for any change and what the minimum snow should still pile up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What model are they looking at? Doesn't look close to most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What model are they looking at? Doesn't look close to most guidance. Worst map I've ever seen. 16+ inches over agc to nothing at all north. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What model are they looking at? Doesn't look close to most guidance. A blend of GFS and Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A blend of GFS and Canadian There isn't a model that shows us getting a foot and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Please lord 16 inches is good for me. I hope it come to fruition col,,,,$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There isn't a model that shows us getting a foot and a half. If we get a foot of snow, I will do a naked snow angel. No guidance is far enough north for us to see more than advisory snow.I was more so commenting on your observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z sref MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z sref MEAN Mr c how much snow for allegheny ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mr c how much snow for allegheny ? 4 to 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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