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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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Wow, buzzer beater by the gfs. Stopped looking after the first few frames looked rough lol. Different evolution it seems?

The NAM has a better precip field early on.  GFS didn't have that hopefully it catches on in future runs.  It helped that the low hugged the coast.  Kept us in precip

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The NAM has a better precip field early on.  GFS didn't have that hopefully it catches on in future runs.  It helped that the low hugged the coast.  Kept us in precip

Thats the difference, previous runs that has us getting a good hit were all front loaded, this run that low just pumps moisture off the atlantic and throws it back our way.

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I think it is a totally different solution than the NAM honestly.

Agree, NAM drives the primary further north like earlier solutions of the GFS, GFS is mainly pounding us from the coast. If that is correct, then we want that secondary to come as far west and bomb and crawl up the coast to keep that conveyor going as long as possible.

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Seems like the nam and gfs have similar precipitation amounts but two very different ways of getting there. Not sure what to make of that and makes me hesitate a little bit.

Since the NAM only goes out 84 hrs, add the precip from the GFS after that and add it to our total.  One can only hope,..

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Yep...especially with the big cities still getting crushed. I feel like it has to rain in Philly and dc for us to get a huge hit from a storm like this.

Well, I don't think we see a big moisture laden low vertically stacked and occlude and close off at this latitude very often. If that doesn't  happen then yeah we don't see anything from a storm that far east.

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Well, I'm off to bed so I can let visions of buried rulers dance in my head before the Euro kills our mojo. This is a different way to get a nice snowfall and its rare but if this storm is as big and powerful as modeled it might work out for us. Good job changing all those avatars \ detour signs, it worked, at least for the 00z suite.

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Here is my take on all 3 models fwiw tonight.

All 3 models jump the low to SC and then crawl it up the coast and then it moves off. 

The difference is the Nam and GFS give more snow and the CMC has a tighter system. The CMC pretty much takes the same route tonight as earlier today but the storm is smaller.

 

I may be wishcasting but the storm has got to get bigger. We need to tap as much moisture moving North.

The storm may not have all of the dynamics from Jan 1996 but that storm was a lot wider spreading precip into Ohio to Northern Pa.

Let's see if this happens tomorrow. 

Things haven't changed much. 

We could get 2-4 or 8-12.

 

Sorry for the rambling but I just watched an awful basketball game and was hoping for some model kindness.

I guess the Euro will be key again tonight.

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Bad news is 06z nam has nothing from pittsburgh north. Few inches from middle of county south. Good news is there's a foot in Washington County and 35 inches near morgantown. Tracked a lot like 00z gfs but precipitation field shrunk south. Probably not news at all considering it's the 06z nam and at this range but I'm up and bored so take it fwiw.

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