north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What the heck are you guys talking about? The Nam and the GFS are hugging the coast once it redevelops just like the Canadian. We are back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What the heck are you guys talking about? The Nam and the GFS are hugging the coast once it redevelops just like the Canadian. We are back in the game. yessir - back in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, buzzer beater by the gfs. Stopped looking after the first few frames looked rough lol. Different evolution it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Woops!! Though this would be a solution we don't see often..a coastal throwing heavy snow back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, buzzer beater by the gfs. Stopped looking after the first few frames looked rough lol. Different evolution it seems? The NAM has a better precip field early on. GFS didn't have that hopefully it catches on in future runs. It helped that the low hugged the coast. Kept us in precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM has a better precip field early on. GFS didn't have that hopefully it catches on in future runs. It helped that the low hugged the coast. Kept us in precip I think it is a totally different solution than the NAM honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM has a better precip field early on. GFS didn't have that hopefully it catches on in future runs. It helped that the low hugged the coast. Kept us in precip Thats the difference, previous runs that has us getting a good hit were all front loaded, this run that low just pumps moisture off the atlantic and throws it back our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does anybody have a map of the most recent canadian run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like the nam and gfs have similar precipitation amounts but two very different ways of getting there. Not sure what to make of that and makes me hesitate a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Woops!! Though this would be a solution we don't see often..a coastal throwing heavy snow back to us. I kinda have a hard time buying into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Time for "Oh Canada" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think it is a totally different solution than the NAM honestly. Agree, NAM drives the primary further north like earlier solutions of the GFS, GFS is mainly pounding us from the coast. If that is correct, then we want that secondary to come as far west and bomb and crawl up the coast to keep that conveyor going as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like the nam and gfs have similar precipitation amounts but two very different ways of getting there. Not sure what to make of that and makes me hesitate a little bit. Since the NAM only goes out 84 hrs, add the precip from the GFS after that and add it to our total. One can only hope,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Time for "Oh Canada" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I kinda have a hard time buying into that. Yep...especially with the big cities still getting crushed. I feel like it has to rain in Philly and dc for us to get a huge hit from a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yep...especially with the big cities still getting crushed. I feel like it has to rain in Philly and dc for us to get a huge hit from a storm like this. Well, I don't think we see a big moisture laden low vertically stacked and occlude and close off at this latitude very often. If that doesn't happen then yeah we don't see anything from a storm that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good sign with the UKIE. UKIE tucked into the coast also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty amazing how consistent the models have been with that main swath of snow. Location and amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, I'm off to bed so I can let visions of buried rulers dance in my head before the Euro kills our mojo. This is a different way to get a nice snowfall and its rare but if this storm is as big and powerful as modeled it might work out for us. Good job changing all those avatars \ detour signs, it worked, at least for the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here is my take on all 3 models fwiw tonight. All 3 models jump the low to SC and then crawl it up the coast and then it moves off. The difference is the Nam and GFS give more snow and the CMC has a tighter system. The CMC pretty much takes the same route tonight as earlier today but the storm is smaller. I may be wishcasting but the storm has got to get bigger. We need to tap as much moisture moving North. The storm may not have all of the dynamics from Jan 1996 but that storm was a lot wider spreading precip into Ohio to Northern Pa. Let's see if this happens tomorrow. Things haven't changed much. We could get 2-4 or 8-12. Sorry for the rambling but I just watched an awful basketball game and was hoping for some model kindness. I guess the Euro will be key again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not a bad run. We don't really see much but the northern precip is definitely north 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So close. Need a little bit more help. Promising run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seriously look how close far SW PA is from significant snow. Just gotta keep these trends going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bad news is 06z nam has nothing from pittsburgh north. Few inches from middle of county south. Good news is there's a foot in Washington County and 35 inches near morgantown. Tracked a lot like 00z gfs but precipitation field shrunk south. Probably not news at all considering it's the 06z nam and at this range but I'm up and bored so take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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