RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From what I've seen the past couple days on the GFS, the 850 and 500 mb vort maps, continue to look pretty decent setup wise, despite what the surface is showing as far sensible weather goes. Mabey my untrained eyes aren't seeing the whole picture, but to me it looks like a classic setup, especially with the nice easterly 850 mb fetch of the atlantic. ??? I saw earthlight posted that there is a lobe of energy swinging around the PV that happens to time itself perfectly with our amplifying storm. This beats down ridging along the coast and helps keep the storm from gaining latitude. Plus the Euro is showing a storm crashing onto the west coast that is pretty strong which is pumping the ridge in the west so the wave that becomes the storm can dig further south. Thats my understanding but both of those 2 pieces could easily change to lead to a more favorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All of these mets thinks this come further north. Bernie, JB and some other americanwx mets but we shall see with these next two suites. If you look at how far north the DGEX is, the NAM is the precursor so one can assume the NAM comes north. We shall see in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is a big hit. But unfortunately, it's the NAM. I wish it wasn't the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At least there is still hope. Thats all I want for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We have been NAMed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We've been NAMed!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So changing the avatars did it.. I credit my snow weenie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ...and it's still snowing at that point. Would be really nice to see the GFS and Euro show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ...and it's still snowing at that point. Would be really nice to see the GFS and Euro show somthing similar. I wouldn't expect them to come around to that tonight. Just stop the south bleeding and maybe tick back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't expect them to come around to that tonight. Just stop the south bleeding and maybe tick back north. True, but I feel like the 0z and 12z runs are pretty critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well NAM is north of its 18z position from hour 81 to hour 84, at least in terms of the precipitation shield. Not sure if that really correlates to any changes we might see in other models since the NAM after 48 is really a crap shoot but its better than seeing it go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SREF Plumes for KPIT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This range is not the NAM's wheelhouse, and that's putting it lightly. I've seen it score a coup before, but that's pretty rare to say the least. The precip in the ~80 hour range is always overdone, that much is true. It is minimally encouraging to see the North makeup still exist on at least one model (though I suppose we should say two with the DGEX, as if it really counts). Trough looks inverted there on the NAM, a really massive storm. A storm that strong, of course, would actually pull to the west as it intensifies. Overall less progressive. I still see that feature coming into the PAC NW and we probably want that to be a bit weaker at end-game. Also a textbook banana high. I think the ULL even on the NAM is farther south than we'd like - sitting over South Carolina - but depending on how the system moves it may not be all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Howdee folks. Back from a disastrous Pitt loss. Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gfs... Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah.. not what I was hoping to see. Still plenty of time left, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gfs... Game over. Yep. Wont be staying up for EURO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems to be thumping 90-96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think we panicked too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, looking great into late saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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