Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS a little south from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS a little south from 12z?Looks that way. I'm having trouble getting the page to load now. Everyone looking at it at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm gonna rest my hopes on every model not continuing the shift south up until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm gonna see if the 0z models. If not then stick a fork in this one because it's cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like it is down to a 2-4 inch fringe snowfall which seems to happen a lot. I have hope though that it is still 3 days out and tonight and tomorrow's models will get a better handle on it. The Canadian seems to hug the coast as it moves up and out but the others move it out quicker. I think our best hope at this point is to have it come back NW somewhat and we can get into the 8-10 range. Otherwise it is what it is. For those that were around in Jan 1996 I do remember the forecast starting with 1-3, 2-4 and continuing to climb upward for that storm. We did not have internet or models but if it came that far north once before it can do it again. I am going to watch Pitt beat NC State tonight and then come home to see tonight's models come back north. Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah its south of 12z, writing might be on the walls if its caving to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We don't need much of a shift. If the next few runs just adjust things slightly north we will be back in it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well, we've watched the models trend north a couple days ago. Now we're watching them go back south. It's frustrating for sure but you have to think they aren't done wobbling yet. There's a foot of snow on our doorstep. Let's just hope the last few wobbles are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If this turns out to not be our storm - I hope for everyone here that we get the one we are hoping for this winter. Seems like a lot of disappointment over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If this turns out to not be our storm - I hope for everyone here that we get the one we are hoping for this winter. Seems like a lot of disappointment over the years. Honestly all I want is a 8-12 type deal with heavy snow. Maybe this comes back NW. It wouldn't take much for a shift but the SE trend has been in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 According to the 7-year rule, the next big storm out this way should be next winter, but maybe we get lucky and hit it this year. Even if this storm misses there is still February when confluence generally weakens allowing for less-suppressed systems. Still a bit wishy-washy and I hate being on the "fringe" of something big. Just like a bullseye seven days out is almost always bad, being on the fringe near the 48 hour mark is equally bad (or at least nerve wracking). That said I have seen a fringe event go to a major hit within the 36-hour window (that might have been the second February storm in 2010), so you never really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The December storm in 09 was a miss for many until about the last day. Ended up being very memorable for the coast and a nice hit for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let's all hope this comes back to the north. My county has been on the outside looking in too many times the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Double post and deleted lol. Does anyone have any model runs leading up to Feb 2010? Interested in how that evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doesn't appear to be many favorable hits on the 18z GEFS. I really need to stop sitting here and sweating over every graphic that is posted on all the forums. Heh. Going to take a nice break until 9:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The December storm in 09 was a miss for many until about the last day. Ended up being very memorable for the coast and a nice hit for us as well. Agreed, an outcome similar to that would not take much shifting at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Storm won't be here to Friday lets see what happens wether good or bad. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We don't need much of a shift. If the next few runs just adjust things slightly north we will be back in it quickly. Yeah, verbatim 18z isn't terrible. I'm more concerned that if this is a trend we will see the GFS tick South and Euro Tick North until they meet in the middle but ultimately that will put us out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doesn't appear to be many favorable hits on the 18z GEFS. I really need to stop sitting here and sweating over every graphic that is posted on all the forums. Heh. Going to take a nice break until 9:30. You need to focus on only the good graphics like the DGEX I just posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You need to focus on only the good graphics like the DGEX I just posted... You, my friend are one hilarious dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From what I've seen the past couple days on the GFS, the 850 and 500 mb vort maps, continue to look pretty decent setup wise, despite what the surface is showing as far sensible weather goes. Mabey my untrained eyes aren't seeing the whole picture, but to me it looks like a classic setup, especially with the nice easterly 850 mb fetch of the atlantic. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well from looking at the accuweather forums back in 2010, the storm on February 3/4 was south of us. I know it's a different set up and all but hey its happened once before. We have to have this atleast stop trending south first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Feb 5 2010 came in on a friday as well. We were fringed for a while but were back strong by wednesday. I'd start to worry if its tjis time tomorrow with similar trends. I think this storm is smaller coverage wise though which could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From what I've seen the past couple days on the GFS, the 850 and 500 mb vort maps, continue to look pretty decent setup wise, despite what the surface is showing as far sensible weather goes. Mabey my untrained eyes aren't seeing the whole picture, but to me it looks like a classic setup, especially with the nice easterly 850 mb fetch of the atlantic. ??? Agree...that fetch is what can do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All of these mets thinks this come further north. Bernie, JB and some other americanwx mets but we shall see with these next two suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All of these mets thinks this come further north. Bernie, JB and some other americanwx mets but we shall see with these next two suites. I wouldn't expect Bernie and JB to say anything other than that. Heh. Let's see what the 0z suite has in store for us. Would be nice not to see any more signs of a southern shift. Tonight and 12z tomorrow are the big ones. There's always a NW trend, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't expect Bernie and JB to say anything other than that. Heh. Let's see what the 0z suite has in store for us. Would be nice not to see any more signs of a southern shift. Tonight and 12z tomorrow are the big ones. There's always a NW trend, right? Only when we don't want it. I may need to find my picture of Mario ground pounding the snow away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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