north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will bring it North. It worked once. It can work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Please. Something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will bring it North. It worked once. It can work again. I removed that bastard EURO snow map from Sunday from my profile pic... Hopefully helps the juju.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the Euro control and ensemble continue to mirror each other with a coastal now taking over on the coast of SC with precip shield up to the Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Today's trends leave me feeling the same after I saw Toussaint's fumble. Disappointed that a possible game winning drive was stopped, but optimistic we could over come it, and well we all know how that worked out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Saw a great post over at PhillyWx explaining why the Euro is keeping the storm so far South: Here is the main difference I am seeing with regards to the Euro and the GFS.. If you look at H5 hr panel 96 on both the next wave of energy crashing onto the west coast is affecting the trough in the east. In the case of the GFS it's not as deep therefore allows the low to gain more latitude In the case of the Euro the next wave of energy crashing into northern Cali is pumping up the ridge out west a bit more and deepening the trough in the east more allowing the low dig more before it starts to move NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So you are saying there is still a chance EURO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Saw a great post over at PhillyWx explaining why the Euro is keeping the storm so far South: Here is the main difference I am seeing with regards to the Euro and the GFS.. If you look at H5 hr panel 96 on both the next wave of energy crashing onto the west coast is affecting the trough in the east. In the case of the GFS it's not as deep therefore allows the low to gain more latitude In the case of the Euro the next wave of energy crashing into northern Cali is pumping up the ridge out west a bit more and deepening the trough in the east more allowing the low dig more before it starts to move NE. Good Point. In other words we won't know which way it goes until the storm comes onto the west coast and plays out from there. Probably late tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well, I was already right about this going back south when it was still looking good for us. I'm not bragging about that believe me. I was hoping to be wrong, but I know how these models can play out still days away from an event. That's why I don't get my hopes up anymore, more than 3 days away. I'll take another stab at this and say that this system will probably end up somewhere in between where the GFS and Euro currently stand. I think the Euro probably went too far south and will come back north a little. Probably not enough to give us anything exciting though. Probably a fringe event like I brought up a couple of days ago. Maybe a 1-3 or 2-4 across the county. We'll see what happens tomorrow though. Wednesday has been the day all along that was going to give us a better idea about this storm. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will bring it North. It worked once. It can work again.If, by some miracle, the Euro comes back north far enough to give us something significant, you will be required to keep that up forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Someone on AccuWx forums said that the 12" line makes it way into Somerset County on the Euro Control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will bring it North. It worked once. It can work again. If anyone can recall, wasn't it the NAM that first nailed the trends for the 2010 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nothing like getting NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Trying to be optimistic. Compare the 84 NAM with 84 CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Latest from Bastardi on the Euro coming in south:"I was not expecting to see what I am seeing out of the Euro on this run. I having a tough time figuring out why this would go that far south, so 4 days out, I will hold my position. Its most disturbing because a) I dont understand why this would not simply bowl east through the mid atlantic aloft, with one center to Kentucky, the other to the va capes then out northeast south of New England. it would mean the storm is further south. C) it would open the door for it to go even further south. But the pattern to me does not support that. I can hear every argument about the modeling, and understand why people look at models and say this and that. But what has changed so much? Until its in the nations midsection and we can look harder at it, then I dont see the reason to flip flop yet. So I will hold my ground now. Again, I look at this, and I understand the model is seeing more confluence holding to the north and thinking the system will have energy that can force it to reform further south, but it does not seem right to me that a storm with an interior track like that and so much warm water is shoved out. As it is, the control takes a center into Chesapeake bay like the Canadian...But I won't try to hide it, I am rattled by this" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From Henry Margusity: State College - 11.5" Altoona - 14" Harrisburg - 18" Pittsburgh - 10" Lancaster - 24" Philly - 22" Baltimore - 24" Washington - 24" (28-34" west of D.C.) New York City - 13" Allentown - 12" Medford, New Jersey - 12" mix Boston - 8" http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/major-storm-will-produce-heavy-snows-severe-weather-and-flooding/54892402 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If anyone can recall, wasn't it the NAM that first nailed the trends for the 2010 storm? The NAM did but I think it was mostly because it has a bias to be further north and/or overdo precip and it happened to coincidentally be right in the end. I'd rather have it much more north now than what it is showing. I guess we are all in with the GGEM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS PARA looks good 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yikes the European trended so far south it's hard to ignore. Curious to see what the 18z GFS says but I know the 0z and 12z will be more important. It's funny because now that it looks bad, I have accepted the fact that we maybe screwed yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One final point. The GFS won the model war this weekend in my opinion. The storm was a lot further NW than most people thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS PARA looks good 10+ Looks better than most, although even it went south/east a bit with precip. It just stinks that besides the GGEM, everything went in the wrong direction. I would just like to see 1 adjust back north even if it is slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am ready. LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am all in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 HAHA love the canadian enthusiasm in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 HAHA love the canadian enthusiasm in here! Yeah, its pretty great ah? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.