colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is our friend so far. Yep. Safe for the next hour until the GFS starts rolling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like we would get crushed later Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like we would get crushed later Friday night. Wow look at that comma head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow look at that comma head! To bad it's the NAM at 84. GEFS didn't do anything to boost my confidence either. A lot of Euro looking members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like at 3+ days off, the 3-5 inch call for my neck of the woods..Woodland Hills, maybe underdoing it.. Do I think a 12" monster nah, but 3" looks unlikely at this point. That is unless we have a serious southern trend. I'd rather be here than a bull's-eye this far out and we get Lucy'd with the football again. You just know our ridiculous snowfall defect was not going to hold up this year. Get ready gents could be an interesting second half of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To bad it's the NAM at 84. GEFS didn't do anything to boost my confidence either. A lot of Euro looking members in there. What are you expectation 2"+ of QPF? That's a once in 10 years storm. Let's take our .75-1" QPF with a nice ratio and be grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seems like you hear this stuff when a model doesn't project as much for your area as you wish but possibel the 0z run was off.I saw that too from another source, not sure what it means though for totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What are you expectation 2"+ of QPF? That's a once in 10 years storm. Let's take our .75-1" QPF with a nice ratio and be grateful. I'd be happy with 6-8 inches but with the sharp cutoff if the Euro is right or ends up further SE we get overcast with a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys the storm hasn't even come onto land yet-if there's any movement it should be north-because that cold air isn't Artic air per se...I just hope it doesn't shift TOO far north come tomorrow 12z model runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To bad it's the NAM at 84. GEFS didn't do anything to boost my confidence either. A lot of Euro looking members in there. What are you expectation 2"+ of QPF? That's a once in 10 years storm. Let's take our .75-1" QPF with a nice ratio and be grateful. I think its more of the trend than the actual amounts. As it is modeled and looking at the CIPS analogs, this is definitely a once in 10 Year storm for the larger region, maybe not for Pittsburgh where we sit right now but a lot of the big time storms tend to start bumping qpf up gradually as we get closer to the event (Dec 09, Feb 10) are the two most recent that come to mind. No guarantee that this will happen but It would be nice if the models would oblige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It may be time for the detour sign. It worked in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z PARA...Nice 1 frame .5-.75, 3 frames .25-.5 And it keeps going after this with 3 more frames of .10-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would lock that in right now..and the nice thing is it looks like it actually bumped a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would lock that in right now..and the nice thing is it looks like it actually bumped a bit north. Right now it would be a 24 hour snowfall with a general 6-8 and more south and east. I would take it too. I can't believe this is still 3 days out. Still a lot can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Right now it would be a 24 hour snowfall with a general 6-8 and more south and east. I would take it too. I can't believe this is still 3 days out. Still a lot can happen. Hopefully it bumps 50 miles north. Would love a solution like the para just showed as that would be a foot plus I am of course expecting either this to suppress south, or a disaster slop storm. Just too used to that, and there rarely seems to be an in between other that the rare Feb 2010 events? I mean, since that month outside of clippers have we had anything that stayed all snow, and if it was all snow, it was fringing us to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC looks warm for the DC crew... Too bad...If that were to verify, mass suicides.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016HIGHLIGHTS...LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAYTHROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BERELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATESOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TOTHE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THISSYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THENTHE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUESNORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT INMIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS ITMOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATENORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHERNORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHEREVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THEAMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TRENDTO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACTSNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW ASWELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OFTHE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THISFORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELSARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MOREPROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06ZGFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALLAMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILARTO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WASMUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIANENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEANIS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THECANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FORTHE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE ANDTHE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROMNORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND.TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALLDISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMSIN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THEJANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLYTIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJORSNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTODAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSSTHE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERALINCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.CONFIDENCE...THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THATALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TOIMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODELSOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVETO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THEFORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCHAS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESSPREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OFPREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That looks like a 6-10" for me. I'll make a real preliminary call based on nothing but a hunch. Split the difference and as of Saturday night 8" siting on my driveway. My son happy to snowboard out at Boyce Park on real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Canadian transfer low stays closer to the coast than the GFS. We still look to be in a decent spot 8-10 but Laurel Highlands gets crushed. Move it 50 miles west and we have our Foot. Since I have been on this board over the last few years this model has seemed to be most accurate and I try to follow it closely. I don't know about everyone else but I like this mornings trend a lot. We just need the Euro to start coming back. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Canadian transfer low stays closer to the coast than the GFS. We still look to be in a decent spot 8-10 but Laurel Highlands gets crushed. Move it 50 miles west and we have our Foot. Since I have been on this board over the last few years this model has seemed to be most accurate and I try to follow it closely. I don't know about everyone else but I like this mornings trend a lot. We just need the Euro to start coming back. Thoughts? The Canadian map I posted looks like 12-20 for AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol Lock that in, and our friend in Farmington gets 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm in a better mood today. This accutane I feel like is making me bipolar over snow. Anyway thoughts from Joe B. Remember there is going to be an area of 20 to 30 to 1 going on with this I am still wondering if the GFS is having its usual feedback problem. I am not going to tinker with my idea given the model, just comment on it. Basically we have hurricane gusts on the way for the coast and with the storm likely to exit east, rather than pull north, the dec 1992 scenario for the coast comes into play. But if you take the snow amounts you received in Feb 17-18 03 and Feb 5-6 10 storms referenced, I think you wind up pretty close to that with this People ask me about 1996, well those amounts might be close, but the storm was on the arctic front not one riding up west of the mountains first. The thing I dont understand, is with all that warm water how this is going to jump out that far when it reforms. I do see the warmer patch out there but its so darn warm all over I cant believe all that east flow is not going to try to push the coastal front back into Tidewater and Delmarva. But the 00z euro was trying it too. The DGEX off the nam though went wild and wild is part of this, as it took the low into the lower Chesapeake before exiting. The Hires implies that this is not the last one. Think about this, it snowed on the coast this weekend. Its snowing in the plains now and though this will fall apart, its a significant precursor in the Ohio and Tennessee valley. This storm is a lock, though the details on who goes 20 to 1 and who gets the legal 10 to 1 lollipop are up for grabs. Is it around BWI for instance, or like I think further west. But look at behind it. Can you imagine if 10 days from now a storm was at Hatteras coming north? Its 66 all over again. So I see the GFS, think the low is near the mouth of the Chesapeake Sat AM, not 75-100 miles out. I think it cuts inside this station, Station CHLV2 NDBC Location: 36.905N 75.713W Cape Henry Light Vessel so we will watch the pressure and wind to see how close I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol Lock that in, and our friend in Farmington gets 3 feet. haha....we'll see what things are saying come tomorrow afternoon! but at this point-I wouldn't complain with 6" honestly!....come on guys-let's all cash in friday night!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i have heard comparisons for this potential storm to Jan 1996 and Feb 16 2003. I remember the 2003 storm on the weekend well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Canadian transfer low stays closer to the coast than the GFS. We still look to be in a decent spot 8-10 but Laurel Highlands gets crushed. Move it 50 miles west and we have our Foot. Since I have been on this board over the last few years this model has seemed to be most accurate and I try to follow it closely. I don't know about everyone else but I like this mornings trend a lot. We just need the Euro to start coming back. Thoughts? I am hoping this was the extent of the southern goal posts and now we wobble back north a bit as we move towards Friday. I like where we sit as of now but It would make me feel better if the euro expanded the snows a bit northward. Kocin's write up included Jan 96, Feb 03, and Feb 2010 and those 3 storms I would imagine all involved a northern expansion of big snows. I can't speak for the modeling of the first 2 because I was younger but I do remember the forecasts significantly busting on the low side and total calls increasing throughout the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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