blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good day but still a ways to go. Tomorrow will start another chapter. I guess as I get older and learn not to get too excited this early. Time to get some sleep because there may be trouble getting some later in the week. Also another potential system on the heals of this one. Wouldn't that be great. In Feb 2010 I recall getting a 8 or 9 inch snowfall right after the 21. Let's do it. My favorite pic from this storm. Yeah, if it happens great. If it doesn't, life goes on. We've been through this many times and we've been disappointed many more times than not. I've seen these storms look great just a couple of days away and then we still end up losing them. My approach is to watch it, but not get excited quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 All we need is a slight more shift. Unfrotunately that does not look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Why did I stay up for this crap... We've seen this fish before. That's why I have the attitude that I do now concerning these storms, especially when they're still at least a few days away. Had a feeling this was going to start going the other way again. Anything can still happen, so I don't want to just completely give up on it either. Whatever happens, happens. It's the area we live in. This is nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seeing as I probably will get banned. I think I should just totally step away from the models. Over/under if I can pull that one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seeing as I probably will get banned. I think I should just totally step away from the models. Over/under if I can pull that one off. Might be a good idea. Don't let it ruin your life or anything. Not worth it. It's like when you keep meeting hot girls and you get all excited thinking they are interested in you, only to find out at the end that they want nothing to do with you. Keeps happening over and over to you. Eventually, you just say screw it, and not worry about that stuff anymore. Yeah, that's a weird analogy, I know. lol The point is, that's where I'm at in the hobby now. We've been disappointed so many times over the years that you just get sick of getting sick over it. You just hope for the best and whatever happens, happens like i said earlier. If we finally get lucky, great. If not, life goes on. Take your energy out at the gym. I did earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now let's all relax a little bit. Don't want our small little group here to become the laughing stock of the forum. Still have three Euro runs to go until we're even 48 hours before the event starts. You had to know it was going to waver back and forth a little bit at some point. Here's the 6z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From PBZ... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STARTED TO GROW WITH REGARD TO THE LANDFALLAND EASTWARD MIGRATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OFVANCOUVER ISLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CENTRALROCKIES...MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTICBY LATE THIS WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TOEVEN COME ON SHORE YET...AND AS THESE SYSTEMS TRACK OVER THEROCKIES...THEIR ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE CAN ALTER DRASTICALLY...NOTTO MENTION THAT THE MODELS FAIL TO HANDLE THEIR EMERGENCE FROM THEROCKIES PARTICULARLY WELL QUITE OFTEN. THAT SAID...ALL EYES AREALREADY POINTED AT THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL MIDDLE ATLANTICDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.A RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION IS SET TO UNFOLD GOING INTO THIS WEEKAS THE SYSTEM COMES ON SHORE WHILE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM STARTSTO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THISALLOWS FOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM TO STREAKSOUTHEASTWARD VERY QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFICCOAST MID-WEEK AND IT IS FORCED DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE.WHILE THIS WOULD GENERALLY ALLOW FOR A VERY DEEP SYSTEM TO EMERGEEAST OF THE TERRAIN IN TEXAS...A VERY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHCENTRAL CANADA REALLY INHIBITS THE LONGITUDINAL EXTENT OF THEDEVELOPING WEST COASTAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVEGENERALLY CLUSTERED IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM OUTOF THE ROCKIES MID-WEEK WITH STRONG CLUSTERING FOR ITS EMERGENCEIN NEBRASKA NOW EVIDENT AMONGST THE GFS...GEFS...CANADIAN...ANDECMWF.ALL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANSAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...AND MOST FAVOR FAR LESS SOUTHWARDDIGGING AND NORTHWARD EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST. THISWOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED GIVEN WHERE THE MODELS FAVOR ITSEMERGENCE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS LIKELY MEANS A BIT MORENORTHERLY TRACK EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FAVORED...WHICHCAUSES THE CALCULUS TO SHIFT A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOROUR AREA.AS ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...SURFACE LOW PRESSUREWILL FORM AND THE NAM/GFS/SREF AND EVENTUAL DGEX SOLUTIONSINDICATING SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX MAKING ITS WAYNORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW TURNS THE CORNERAND STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT INMODEL SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS RUNS AS THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 0C AROUND MORGANTOWN BY FRIDAYEVENING. THIS WOULD MAKE P-TYPE A CONCERN SHOULD IT OCCUR...AS THEBOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY WARM TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ALL IN THISAREA. HOWEVER...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW EAST OF THE TERRAINSEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE MUCH NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE WARMERAIR WEST OF THE TERRAIN...AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION REALLY SUPPRESSESTHE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE TERRAIN AS WELL. FOR THESEREASONS...THE FORECAST STILL FAVORS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE.WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEMIS RATHER STARK AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FEED DRIER AIR INTO THESYSTEM AND LIKELY ALLOW FOR A RATHER STARK CUT OFF TO THE NORTH.THAT SAID...285-295K LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND CENTERED SQUARELY INTHE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A BACK-BUILDING AND INCREASINGLYCURVED UPPER JET STRUCTURE FURTHER SUPPORTING AGEOSTROPHICCOMPONENTS OF ASCENT. IN ESSENCE...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SCREAMINGTHAT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LIKELY TO UNFOLDIN...NEAR...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE REAL QUANDARY ISWHERE WILL THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BE. AT THE MOMENT...THE MOSTLIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH ANDEAST OF PITTSBURGH...WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF A CLIFF TO THENORTHWEST. THIS IDEA WAS FEATURED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKAND SHOULD CURRENT PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN FUTURE MODELAND ENSEMBLE RUNS...WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY WELL BE NEEDED. THATSAID...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NEEDS TO BE MUCH BETTER ESTABLISHEDTHAN IT CURRENTLY IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...SO NO HEADLINES AREPLANNED AT THIS TIME. THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS NEAR OUR REGIONFRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF FORECAST CHANGES.RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOWFOR THE AREA TO DRY OUT WITH SUN TO RETURN.TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...SEEM POISED TO REMAIN RATHER WINTRY INTOEARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's like when you keep meeting hot girls and you get all excited thinking they are interested in you, only to find out at the end that they want nothing to do with you. Keeps happening over and over to you. Eventually, you just say screw it, and not worry about that stuff anymore. Well, you could just take matters into your own hands, so to speak. Buy a snow machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now let's all relax a little bit. Don't want our small little group here to become the laughing stock of the forum. Still have three Euro runs to go until we're even 48 hours before the event starts. You had to know it was going to waver back and forth a little bit at some point. Here's the 6z GFS... I've checked out some of the other groups in the forum and I actually think this is one of the more calm ones. Lol Like I said multiple times already, whatever happens, happens. Just continue to keep an eye on things. We'll know more tomorrow. We should be used to this by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Glad I went to bed after the 00z GFS lol The Euro Ensembles look to have the primary further North than the OP so that is a good sign. A compromise between the GFS and Euro would be ok, I'd take 3rd place and a bronze trophy over nothing! Guess we will see what 12z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Glad I went to bed after the 00z GFS lol The Euro Ensembles look to have the primary further North than the OP so that is a good sign. A compromise between the GFS and Euro would be ok, I'd take 3rd place and a bronze trophy over nothing! Guess we will see what 12z brings. I tried to go to bed but just laid there and it was 1:15 and I said I can't sleep, so I will check the EURO. I wasted a poor nights sleep on worrying about a crappy EURO run. Hopefully I dont let that happen tonight..At least the 6Z GFS kept me off the ledge. For now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow really poor turn of events last night and once again the cutoff looks brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 0Z EURO Para. I found this on another site. Not sure what it means for us. The 0z Euro parallel. It is further NW like the ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Luckily I went to sleep too. Not surprised. This always happens. Ups and downs. Still plenty of time to come back. Fun to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z fantasy map way off from actual precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z fantasy map way off from actual precip Yea that must be taking into account some great ratios. I thought the 00z GFS ensemble mean for precip looked pretty good, I believe it was in the MA forum but it looked like we were solidly between 1.0-1.5. Everything since then has been in the wrong direction. I'm also wondering if the GFS is starting to play catchup with the sharp cutoff, the EURO seems to have been pretty steadfast with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 All we need is a slight more shift. Unfrotunately that does not look likely. Why not? I'm not going to claim either way if I think it will shift, but your statement just seems more lie bitter casting, especially when all we really need is a 50 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seems like you hear this stuff when a model doesn't project as much for your area as you wish but possibel the 0z run was off. EPAWA tweeted The European Model OP run had connective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So they are using the DGEX in our forecast discussion...I thought only weenies like me used that model I am riding it for our 36 inches.. AS ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...SURFACE LOW PRESSUREWILL FORM AND THE NAM/GFS/SREF AND EVENTUAL DGEX SOLUTIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 from the MA forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks significantly south of 00z to me, lost a bunch of flush hits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM is showing for precip north of the low. Hopefully that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I wouldn't have minded seeing a really amped up NAM run at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is our friend so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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