Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Atleast post the whole storm. 50 inches in central/east Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here is complete storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Four feet out there in Amish country. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC is underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Beautiful run by the GFS ratios may be slightly better than 10to1 too. I am gonna try to stay up to post the Euro but I don't know if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well I was reading in accu ,we are 86-90 hrs from a start of precipitation .I guess that puts us 3 days and change to the start .)$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Big shift from the 0z Euro and not in a good way for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is why I just don't take models seriously this far out from an event. From 3 feet to next to nothing in one run. Wouldn't surprise me if the next GFS run came back down to Earth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Overnight guidance looks to have shifted south a bit. Still not a bad place to be at this range just have to hope this does not go too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If this one doesn't satisfy us there is plenty more in the pipeline..And regarding the storms this past weekend they trended west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There has been no data for the past 2 EURO Para runs. It has varied from the op, so maybe its hiding our snow for a big surprise later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Overnight guidance looks to have shifted south a bit. Still not a bad place to be at this range just have to hope this does not go too far south. 00z GFS, 6z GFS and 00z Para are still good hits for the area. Looks like the Euro didn't phase as quickly so we get the further SE storm. I'd feel better about our chances if we see the SE trend stop, or even kick back NW on the 12z suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z GFS, 6z GFS and 00z Para are still good hits for the area. Looks like the Euro didn't phase as quickly so we get the further SE storm. I'd feel better about our chances if we see the SE trend stop, or even kick back NW on the 12z suite today. I would like to see the euro come back north today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ive seen this story so many times. Although usually when we need a NW trend, it keeps getting pushed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The day to focus on changes is Wed when the storm starts to get sampled. Dont fret if it doesn't come north today. Last week it had a storm going to Cuba a couple days before it changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This storm has a ton of potential with the amount of moisture the models are showing. I am wondering if we see the precip field on the northern edge expand a bit as we move in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The day to focus on changes is Wed when the storm starts to get sampled. Dont fret if it doesn't come north today. Last week it had a storm going to Cuba a couple days before it changed. Bernie hasn't been that great lately but his latest video basically explains why this is too tough to forecast yet. So much energy and the storm isnt even on the coast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z para GFS looks a bit south/east from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z para GFS looks a bit south/east from the previous run. It is, but still much better than 00z Euro or CMC. Verbatim I'd say probably a 6-10 inch range for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It is, but still much better than 00z Euro or CMC. Verbatim I'd say probably a 6-10 inch range for our area. gfs_namer_138_precip_p48.gif Insane amounts of qpf not that far away, eastern PA and most of MD get absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This seems to be trending toward straight Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow look at those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That is just a monster storm. Crazy sharp cutoff that is a little close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That is just a monster storm. Crazy sharp cutoff that is a little close for comfort. Agree, this run we are in the good stuff. 16-20 inches area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It looks like a long duration snowfall of maybe 24 hours too. Remember like in 2010 wherever this locks in there is usually a wobble north at the end. There is just no more room to go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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