RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO cuts off and doesn't do much for next weekend Seems like an unlikely outcome.. (and no, I'm not just saying that because it shows no snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Who wants to be in the bulls-eye for both the GFS and Euro nine days out anyway? I just don't want to start seeing a cutter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Who wants to be in the bulls-eye for both the GFS and Euro nine days out anyway? I just don't want to start seeing a cutter.. Well a strong NAO and AO produced an east one so I at this point maybe we will get lucky. Hows that ana front looking everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Who wants to be in the bulls-eye for both the GFS and Euro nine days out anyway? I just don't want to start seeing a cutter.. Me, as long as we also end up bullseye in the end... EPS much better than the EURO op for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well a strong NAO and AO produced an east one so I at this point maybe we will get lucky. Hows that ana front looking everyone? Not really showing up on the latest runs that I have seen, plus surface temperatures look to be above 32 on Saturday until around 7pm We might want to keep an eye on the arctic front going through Sunday into Monday though. Its looked a little juicier on recent runs. Maybe a light version of what we had on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Heh. 0z GFS now shows a brand new s/w for mid-week next week. Trend or just something random we won't see at 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wed/Thur storm is back on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Judah Cohen @judah47 1h1 hour ago If Polar Cap Height from 0Z GFS verified it would be lights out on winter 2016. There's nothing redeeming about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well it could be right, but just a couple days ago it was showing a split in the PV, so this is a pretty radical change and hopefully we can just chalk that solution up to model chaos as we go out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol, gfs now shows the mid week storm shearing apart, and nothing for the end of week storm. Basically snow showers and flurries over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol, gfs now shows the mid week storm shearing apart, and nothing for the end of week storm. Basically snow showers and flurries over the weekend. Someone just needs to take that model out back and put it out of its misery. Lets see what the Euro and gefs has to say about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol, gfs now shows the mid week storm shearing apart, and nothing for the end of week storm. Basically snow showers and flurries over the weekend. Well at least it has made me more productive at work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well at least it has made me more productive at work.. Saw a graphic of the 12z GEFS in the MA forum and they are all over the place, so the outcome is far from certain but I hear ya, easier to get work done when there isn't much to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Does anyone know what Winter 92-93/93-94 were classified according to ENSO? I've been wondering lately if we are in the exact same boat as the mid atlantic region hoping for neutral or weak-mod nino. Any examples of big storms in Nina Years? Just curious, any info would be appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just need this to come northwest about 50 miles... Too bad its only an ensemble member... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 WTOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 WTOD Glad its the 18z because with the low position I would lose my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Glad its the 18z because with the low position I would lose my mind. Plenty of time yet. Nice track and speed but we need cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Plenty of time yet. Nice track and speed but we need cold air. Problem is if the storm closes off and is slower arriving then the cold air is gone and there is nothing to really replenish it. There's not a lot of wiggle room, but still lots of possible solutions, one being us getting a nice snow fall still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like our next best chance of a light accumulating snow should come Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. We are probably talking 1 inch for most of us but we will actually have a favorable wind trajectory off the lakes for awhile so maybe somebody under a band and picks up a little more . After Tuesday the trough starts to break down and we moderate. Still a lot of questions about the Friday system, but over night models seem to have slowed it down which allows the cold to escape and the storm is also weaker. Beyond that looks sorta ugly, but with all the chaos in the models right now you can't totally write anything off. Looking at the 00z EPS for day 10 we have above normal heights over us and a pretty zonal flow from the PAC, maybe a hint of some ridging in the PNA region and the PV looks to have re consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sign me up It just had to go and do this.... At least its only 6 days away instead of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It just had to go and do this.... At least its only 6 days away instead of 10. Honestly I would be happy with half of that. Again its just one model run and it will change with the 18z and 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Biblical run. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Honestly I would be happy with half of that. Again its just one model run and it will change with the 18z and 0z suite. I am afraid that this may be our best hope for this winter. So I say give me the full boat or nothing. None of this half that stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CMC is similar but temps would be an issue. Lets see what the king has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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