jwilson Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Finished with 2.5" from today. Not bad for a clipper, though most of that came in about two separate 30 minute periods. If we had sustained that type of snow for any length of time we'd be looking at a serious snowfall. Pure whiteout conditions. The weekend will wash it all away. Unfortunate. We've had a decent setup here just can't get anything of a substantial nature. No surprise that timing is usually an issue. Also - this may be anecdotal, but it seems like the majority of substantial storms occur in February or March. January seems like more of an outlier. I think of January 1996 and that is it; almost all of the notable storms occurred in February or March. I know this partly because of my Birthday on the 31st, and in the ~30 years I've been alive not a single worthwhile snowfall on or near my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Finished with 2.5" from today. Not bad for a clipper, though most of that came in about two separate 30 minute periods. If we had sustained that type of snow for any length of time we'd be looking at a serious snowfall. Pure whiteout conditions. The weekend will wash it all away. Unfortunate. We've had a decent setup here just can't get anything of a substantial nature. No surprise that timing is usually an issue. Also - this may be anecdotal, but it seems like the majority of substantial storms occur in February or March. January seems like more of an outlier. I think of January 1996 and that is it; almost all of the notable storms occurred in February or March. I know this partly because of my Birthday on the 31st, and in the ~30 years I've been alive not a single worthwhile snowfall on or near my birthday. Jan 1994 was a WPa special but your right. I measured earlier and somehow got 5 inches on top of my table. Feburary will be the month for us, and thats what most mets think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well I'm pretty happy with this event. Definite over performer, 2 solid squall lines with whiteout conditions and 3-5 inches region wide plus it snowed just about all day. Cold is really setting in, drinking a couple of beers with the neighbor while the kids were sled riding and it started to turn to slush! Sure beats 65 and rain like Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In case you want another model run to look at, here is the link to the parallel GFS that will take over for the current GFS in a couple months: mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Only posting this image because I find it amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Only posting this image because I find it amusing. Want to see something amusing, see all of those on the east coast jump off the cliff when the GFS showed a monster for Sunday and the EURO says what storm.. Why you can't get wrapped up in fantasy storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Or how a 971 low on their benchmark location can be rain up and down the coast. Atleast the pattern looks to hold somewhat steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Mailman, Here is the EURO for your fantasy storm. EURO says cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looking at the ensembles for Saturday. Looks to be many that are decent for here http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is that a clipper or part of the sunday low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is that a clipper or part of the sunday low? Thats the northern energy for early Saturday. Sunday low not in frame yet and goes ots and not up coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Really curious how the low goes that far north of us and we still have frozen-looking precip. Of course that's just the surface and ignores the column. Anyone know how the upper levels look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Really curious how the low goes that far north of us and we still have frozen-looking precip. Of course that's just the surface and ignores the column. Anyone know how the upper levels look? that moisture is kind of a wave on the arctic front which is being driven through by the low to the north. Kind of an ana front, (moisture behind it). They can throw out a few surprise, usually an intense squall line, thundersnow, wind etc. with a rapid drop in temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 that moisture is kind of a wave on the arctic front which is being driven through by the low to the north. Kind of an ana front, (moisture behind it). They can throw out a few surprise, usually an intense squall line, thundersnow, wind etc. with a rapid drop in temp. Buckeye, thanks for stopping by. We are sort of on an island in our region and dont get much input from outsiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 that moisture is kind of a wave on the arctic front which is being driven through by the low to the north. Kind of an ana front, (moisture behind it). They can throw out a few surprise, usually an intense squall line, thundersnow, wind etc. with a rapid drop in temp. I would sacrifice all of January if I got to witness thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 that moisture is kind of a wave on the arctic front which is being driven through by the low to the north. Kind of an ana front, (moisture behind it). They can throw out a few surprise, usually an intense squall line, thundersnow, wind etc. with a rapid drop in temp. That type of outcome is fairly rare, but it does happen from time to time. Most times I have seen ana frontal solutions on models but typically they lose the look as we get closer in time but who knows maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Didn't even realize buckeye is from the Ohio subforum. I usually go to the midatlantic one just for model dissection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Didn't even realize buckeye is from the Ohio subforum. I usually go to the midatlantic one just for model dissection. I pretty much have a thread opened from each region. Plus each storm thread from Accuweather. I had 16 threads open the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I pretty much have a thread opened from each region. Plus each storm thread from Accuweather. I had 16 threads open the other day. Wow you have me beat by a lot. Thats dedication right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plumres Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would sacrifice all of January if I got to witness thundersnow. The first time I witnessed thundersnow was just before kickoff of the first Super Bowl the Steelers were in on Jan 12, 1975. I was a student at WVU and was sitting in my apartment watching the pregame when it started to thunder. I good 6 to 8 booms while it was pouring snow. We ended up getting 8 inches during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Really curious how the low goes that far north of us and we still have frozen-looking precip. Of course that's just the surface and ignores the column. Anyone know how the upper levels look? That same 60 hr time frame on the 18z GFS, has the 925 mb 0 C line back in eastern ohio. So there is a chance of a quick changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gfs keeps showing some precip with the northern stream sunday. Atleast thats something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Check out the ParGFS for 6z today for next weekend...Weenie run if there ever was one for us. There looks to be temp issues initially but still would be a crusher. Looks like an inverted trough after low moves out. Click the frame by frame. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Check out the ParGFS for 6z today for next weekend...Weenie run if there ever was one for us. There looks to be temp issues initially but still would be a crusher. Looks like an inverted trough after low moves out. Click the frame by frame. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Certainly looks like that is the next shot at a bigger event, but verbatim I think its mostly rain \ mix for most of us in SWPA until we get on the back edge. Inverted trough looks interesting, and we have scored on those before but there is little skill in forecasting those at this range. Though its probably useless to even think about thermals at this juncture, just show a storm on the map that might take a less than atrocious track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That looks much more promising from the GFS Operational. I am worried this has a better chance of becoming a big blown up storm that cuts to far west, but still 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I like that 21-23 window, been consistently showing up on the models for a few days. It also coincides with a pattern transition which usually supports a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That looks much more promising from the GFS Operational. I am worried this has a better chance of becoming a big blown up storm that cuts to far west, but still 7-8 days out. At least we are under the 10 day time frame. Humor me here with my pure weenie cap on... The Para run for fun I took precip for each time frame. Anything where we are above the 0 degree line I have as snow. Frame 1 .01 Snow Frame 2 .1-.25 snow Frame 3 .1-.25 snow Frame 4 .75-1.0 snow Frame 5 .75-1.0 rain Frame 6 .5-.75 rain Frame 7 .25-.5 snow Frame 8 .1-.25 snow Frame 9 .1.25 snow Frame 10 .25-.5 snow Frame 11 .25-.5 snow Frame 12 .25-.5 snow Frame 13 .1-.25 snow Frame 14 .1-.25 snow Frame 15 .1-.25 snow Total .96 - 1.50 snow before rain Total 1.25 - 1.75 rain turning to snow Total 1.5 - 3.5 snow We have 25-50 inches of snow possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO cuts off and doesn't do much for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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