RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 7:11 PM, dj3 said: You're right definitely an improvement, and still plenty of time for shifts. I can't lie though I would be pretty envious if it played out exactly like that lol Yeah, I am concerned if it ticks SE at all we could really miss out and that would suck to be so close but so far away but I guess with any storm somebody is on the outside looking in. Heck even if we can just get the precip shield to expand NW a bit with a similar I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:13 PM, Mailman said: Bernie seems to be leaning towards the GFS. I saw that. His reasoning is that looking at the northern jet, it's weak and far enough north and weak enough that it could track north. Apparently he doesn't buy the European tracking the low so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:28 PM, Ryd10 said: I saw that. His reasoning is that looking at the northern jet, it's weak and far enough north and weak enough that it could track north. Apparently he doesn't buy the European tracking the low so far south. On 1/18/2016 at 8:25 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah, I am concerned if it ticks SE at all we could really miss out and that would suck to be so close but so far away but I guess with any storm somebody is on the outside looking in. Heck even if we can just get the precip shield to expand NW a bit with a similar I'd be happy. Yes I agree. Still way to early. There are probably a lot of people in the other forums that are now expecting 10-20 inches and then when everything changes by Friday they will be mad that they only get 8 I remember Jan 1996 but I was living in Westmoreland County which was prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:37 PM, north pgh said: Yes I agree. Still way to early. There are probably a lot of people in the other forums that are now expecting 10-20 inches and then when everything changes by Friday they will be mad that they only get 8 I remember Jan 1996 but I was living in Westmoreland County which was prime. I was living in Westmoreland County back then as well. I can remember them calling for 6 inches before the storm started and we ended up with 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 8:52 PM, blackngoldrules said: I was living in Westmoreland County back then as well. I can remember them calling for 6 inches before the storm started and we ended up with 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is it realistic that the system will just stall out off the coast like it has been depicted at times? Think it really plays out like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:06 PM, colonel717 said: I'd say the sharp cutoff improved just a bit on the GFS from 12z to 18z lol. Over a foot all the way up to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:06 PM, colonel717 said: 18z GFS Looks great, nice expansion north of the heavier totals. Really hope this is honing in on a big hit for us and not a blip we see reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am just stunned at how consistent the GFS in particular has been with having a TON of precip for this storm. In previous storms the GFS has usually been one of drier models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:16 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: 18z GFS Looks great, nice expansion north of the heavier totals. Really hope this is honing in on a big hit for us and not a blip we see reverse. Absolutely. Really makes me like where we are sitting with that expansion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:14 PM, Mailman said: s it realistic that the system will just stall out off the coast like it has been depicted at times? Think it really plays out like that? Yes, it gets captured (phases with the northern stream) so that causes it to stall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 21 inches. Check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:16 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: 18z GFS Looks great, nice expansion north of the heavier totals. Really hope this is honing in on a big hit for us and not a blip we see reverse. Not holding my breath on this just yet. At least not until Wednesday anyway. lol We've been burned many times before. We're definitely due though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:23 PM, Ryd10 said: 21 inches. Check please. I am greedy.. I want more when I see 1/2 the state with close to 3 ft... Snowfall rates per hour below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Tonight is gonna be stressful. Hoping for the best but Ive been let down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will be interesting to follow for future runs. One of the top guys from American forums Quote So....a post mortum on that run.....was expecting the cessation of a northward trend of the rain/snow line based on a slightly faster trough out west. Did not seem to be the case as the line did come up a few miles. The axis of maximum snow continues to shift northwest. When does it stop? Seems like we're exhausting room for much more northern movement, but yet this run did. Missing something in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:29 PM, Ryd10 said: Tonight is gonna be stressful. Hoping for the best but Ive been let down a lot. Try not to stress yourself out over this yet. Still a lot of time to go and this is going to change a lot. We'll know more about this in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:37 PM, blackngoldrules said: Try not to stress yourself out over this yet. Still a lot of time to go and this is going to change a lot. We'll know more about this in a couple of days. Heavy deadlifts will help my stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:37 PM, blackngoldrules said: Try not to stress yourself out over this yet. Still a lot of time to go and this is going to change a lot. We'll know more about this in a couple of days. I have a tendency to get "model anxiety" and start to lose sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:39 PM, Ryd10 said: Heavy deadlifts will help my stress. It does for me, along with heavy bench pressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Huge shift from the DGEX. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 10:40 PM, Mailman said: I have a tendency to get "model anxiety" and start to lose sleep. I do to, except I lose work time Most of the I can convince myself to go to sleep after the GFS at the latest thinking then that once I get to work I can go over all the 00z \ 6z data, then its only a few hours until 12z starts lol. Hope my boss never finds this thread lol. I admit if this is still looking good Thursday night I may not be able to keep to that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think a lot of those snow maps are way off based on our precip. Ratios would have to be way high to hit 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GEFS they look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Did anyone see the local mets discuss the possibility? I saw WTAE and all they said was not much expected, we are on the fringe. Storm is going up the coast. 30-40% snow showers Fri/Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 11:30 PM, colonel717 said: Did anyone see the local mets discuss the possibility? I saw WTAE and all they said was not much expected, we are on the fringe. Storm is going up the coast. 30-40% snow showers Fri/Sat Cropper posted on Facebook earlier and said the possibility of several inches. They're going to be very conservative still this far out. They always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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