colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is just ridiculous to follow these models for 5 more days.... Its exhausting right now. All I am doing is hoping the storm is still there on models then worry about how much it shows 24 hours before it begins. Then let the angst begin in earnest if they start trending the wrong way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Canadian gives us about 6-8 inches or so. I think these totals are more in line with what will likely happen. I just can't see totals of 20-30 inches verifying this far out. Now if the models show this on Friday than it is game on but I would be careful wishing for these crazy amounts. At least with this type of track we should not have any precipitation issues. As much as we all want a foot or more I would gladly take 6-8 on a weekend no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Model are never right and not getting sucked in until wensday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This a long time to watch this....but its not like we are "burned out" from too much model watching this winter. Lets roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seems like so far GFS, GGEM, UKMET, and NOGAPS (yeah I know..) are all NW of previous runs. Someone did post that the 00z Para was a miss and hit SEVA and NC. Hopefully we see the OP Euro come in NW from 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Starting to worry about this going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:07 PM, dj3 said: Starting to worry about this going south Well that is on the table at this point. Can't worry about things you cant control.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:14 PM, colonel717 said: Well that is on the table at this point. Can't worry about things you cant control.... Very true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 According to my untrained eye, I think we're in good shape on this 12z Euro. Well.. better shape than we were at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:17 PM, dj3 said: Very true! Its funny those along the coast are now worried about too much of a northwest trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 To my untrained eye is the Euro WOW!??????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Doesnt look like it is a good run for us if this image is for the EURO which I think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:28 PM, colonel717 said: Doesnt look like it is a good run for us if this image is for the EURO which I think it is. Thats a lot further NW though. Thats good trends on all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:28 PM, colonel717 said: Doesnt look like it is a good run for us if this image is for the EURO which I think it is. I haven't seen particulars but I thought that the storm has come North. Is that true or has the precip field shrunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last nights 0z. Way south Todays 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:39 PM, Ryd10 said: Last nights 0z. Way south Todays 12z. That's what I thought. A good run. Looks alot like the Canadian. Cutoff is sharp but still puts us in the 6-8 range. If it comes further north than we may be looking at a foot. Still 4 days out so much more can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We need the primary to hold on a little longer then have the transfer run up as close to the coast as possible and hope a deform band sets up over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:45 PM, dj3 said: Ugh so close! An improvement none the less! Snow totals increase from about 6 inches on the butler Allegheny county line to 24 inches in extreme SE Westmoreland County. Incredible cutoff for sure, tick that 50-75NW and we are all in 2foot totals per EuroWx map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:58 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: An improvement none the less! Snow totals increase from about 6 inches on the butler Allegheny county line to 24 inches in extreme SE Westmoreland County. Incredible cutoff for sure, tick that 50-75NW and we are all in 2foot totals per EuroWx map. You're right definitely an improvement, and still plenty of time for shifts. I can't lie though I would be pretty envious if it played out exactly like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 6:58 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: An improvement none the less! Snow totals increase from about 6 inches on the butler Allegheny county line to 24 inches in extreme SE Westmoreland County. Incredible cutoff for sure, tick that 50-75NW and we are all in 2foot totals per EuroWx map. In the end I think this EURO runs is the most likely outcome give or take a few mile tick either way. I think the heavy snow is currently projected to be where it will most likely end up. We are going likely to be fringed, so moving this either way will dramatically affect our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Does this setup mimic any other storm we have ..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On 1/18/2016 at 7:25 PM, Stinkbugspecialist said: Does this setup mimic any other storm we have ..? Looks a helluva lot like Jan '96. Basically a 10-20" swath N to S through the area. The one "problem" was that storm was SO historic (2-3') to the east that even that type of storm left you wanting more. The southern counties down to Morgantown did quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lets see if the Euro going back NW is a trend or just it flip flopping like it did yesterday. What time do the ensembles start rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EURO means. Not only has the totals increased but the heavier band has expanded NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just for fun heres the 12z control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Bernie seems to be leaning towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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