colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 5:02 PM, Ryd10 said: CMC is similar but temps would be an issue. Lets see what the king has to say. Maybe my perception is off but in temp issue storms like this one for our area, it seems the CMC does well to sniff out the warm intrusion. While I love the GFS I think we will end up more like the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good thing its days away. A lot can change between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What a Roller Coaster Temps are. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS and GEM are the only 2 models on board at this point. Lots of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Heavy snow squall right now. Maybe 1/4 mile visibility. Ground quickly whitening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 7:08 PM, colonel717 said: GFS and GEM are the only 2 models on board at this point. Lots of time left. Just to clarify, Euro has the storm, but its weaker and further south so precip barely makes it to the m/d line. Ukmet is probably somewhere in between GFS and Euro. GEFS are further SE closer to Euro than GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well about 6 or so Euro ensemble members are huge hits. Need more support before I get really excited. Also DT analogs it to Feb 11 1983 which wasnt really good for us. But this could turn to a lake cutter next run somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z GFS pretty much held serve. Not much difference in the track. Not as much snow here but CPa looks to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 10:26 PM, colonel717 said: Well that run stinks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 11:14 PM, bethelparksnownut said: Well that run stinks!! Yea, it was an earlier transfer. No need to sweat those details yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If we miss next week at least there is this.. Quote 12z EPS Control has a 976 ontop of DC for ~1/29. Looks like a crush job for Eastern KY, Western WV, Eastern OH, Western PA.. Central PA may be in the battle zone until the EPS sends the low to the NJ coast, then 850s crash.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT making comparisons to this storm (as far as 500mb patterns are concerned)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/17/2016 at 12:33 AM, colonel717 said: Yea, it was an earlier transfer. No need to sweat those details yet. Not worth fretting over details as you say. Not like if it showed us getting nailed it would stay that way for the next 6 days! Anyways, I wouldn't put much stock into it until the Euro shows us getting snow too. It schooled the GFS on this weekend coastal. If it ends up coming around to a GFS type solution I'll start to get invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/17/2016 at 1:38 AM, colonel717 said: If we miss next week at least there is this.. That time frame coincides with a PNA spike, so its plausible Would love to see the maps just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/17/2016 at 1:39 AM, Mailman said: DT making comparisons to this storm (as far as 500mb patterns are concerned)...That was a 6.4" event for us.So at least the analog isnt a total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would be a nice advisory-level event down here. I'm just messing. ...sorta. Do need the Euro to make some adjustments before I start panicking over the looming WTOD scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 UKIE looks weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not looking good on CMC...Rides up and transfer to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/17/2016 at 5:26 AM, north pgh said: I would cry. 14 inches literally in the next county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I will take a repeat of Feb 5-6 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On 1/17/2016 at 5:59 AM, north pgh said: I will take a repeat of Feb 5-6 2010 I wasn't a weenie back then, but I would also take it. The gfs ensembles aren't bad fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/XldmRHd.pnga EURO says no snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Remember.. the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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