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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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I was hoping for something better than a trace.

You weren't looking at the correct map.  It was 18z GFS from yesterday.   It was showing 6 inches all of AGC.  Of course that won't happen.  But it looks like that week is shaping up to have some potential.  

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015110918/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

I remember November 2010 being quite warm through the area, then once December hit, so did winter.  Sort of hoping for a similar outcome this go around.  I think the biggest question mark this winter will be the AO and what it decides to do.  A decent El Nino and a consistently negative AO would probably do well to bring us cold and snow - at the same time.

 

That said we haven't had a ton of moisture this fall, excluding one or two events.  Temps have been consistently above the long-term averages (I haven't looked at the more short-term, say 10-year average).  Moisture has been limited.  I do hope this isn't a winter preview and more of a quiet before the storm.

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Here's an interesting winter outlook from my buddy-dint throw in the towel yet-its a good video!:https://www.facebook.com/JeffOechsleinNEWS9/videos/vb.344428665604509/941438079236895/?type=2&theater

 

Good stuff. Thanks for sharing. I would be perfectly fine with him being right about the winter. I don't want that harsh cold again and I agree with him that I don't think we'll see nearly as much of that this winter, considering the setup. An average winter snowfall wise with a big storm mixed in somewhere would be OK with me. I've always been a storm guy anyway. I don't care about little half inch nuisance snowfalls, although we are always going to get our share of that here with lake effect involved. They just don't do anything for me.

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Good stuff. Thanks for sharing. I would be perfectly fine with him being right about the winter. I don't want that harsh cold again and I agree with him that I don't think we'll see nearly as much of that this winter, considering the setup. An average winter snowfall wise with a big storm mixed in somewhere would be OK with me. I've always been a storm guy anyway. I don't care about little half inch nuisance snowfalls, although we are always going to get our share of that here with lake effect involved. They just don't do anything for me.

Yea altho Im no longer in bethel park-we moved to Farmington, PA here with much better elevation in fayette county so I'm hoping Im blessed in stead of cursed now with the fringe events....so far this season is disappointing, even up here.....I'd like to see a few big ones instead of the crap 1-2" then rain we got all last winter in BP it seemed.....Time will tell my friend!  Thanks for checkin out the video brother!

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Interesting hourly obs on Wunderground, detailing the great snowstorm 65 years ago today.

Seeing hours of heavy snow, with NW winds, and temps around 10 F, is very rare for Pgh.

That would be incredible, I love big snows with good and cold temperatures. I hate when it snows with marginal temperatures and melts at the same time!

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Not likely a good start to Winter for snow lovers. ECMWF 32-day control run thru Jan 1, 2016 has essentially no snow east of the Mississippi.

The pattern looks about as bad as it gets for the next 10-14 days at least. We could still time something interesting with a transient cold shot but it would be more of a factor of luck than anything else. I'd be ok if Winter really unloaded for a 4-8 week period starting in early January and we timed the cold with the snow. The last 2 years of endless bitter cold were really brutal in a lot of respects. The novelty of -10 wore off pretty quick and it would be nice to save some money on energy this year. That being said, most forecasts had December being above normal in the east per nino climo. Just hope we cash in on an amped stj with a couple events this winter.

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The pattern looks about as bad as it gets for the next 10-14 days at least. We could still time something interesting with a transient cold shot but it would be more of a factor of luck than anything else. I'd be ok if Winter really unloaded for a 4-8 week period starting in early January and we timed the cold with the snow. The last 2 years of endless bitter cold were really brutal in a lot of respects. The novelty of -10 wore off pretty quick and it would be nice to save some money on energy this year. That being said, most forecasts had December being above normal in the east per nino climo. Just hope we cash in on an amped stj with a couple events this winter.

Of course the 384 hr storms are starting to show up.  :axe:

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Yea altho Im no longer in bethel park-we moved to Farmington, PA here with much better elevation in fayette county so I'm hoping Im blessed in stead of cursed now with the fringe events....so far this season is disappointing, even up here.....I'd like to see a few big ones instead of the crap 1-2" then rain we got all last winter in BP it seemed.....Time will tell my friend! Thanks for checkin out the video brother!

So I go up to chalk hill every year with friends, and there is always like a foot more of snowpack up there than down in uniontown.

Now I would imagine though it won't be from big storms, but in general elevation enhancement with lake effect.

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So I go up to chalk hill every year with friends, and there is always like a foot more of snowpack up there than down in uniontown.

Now I would imagine though it won't be from big storms, but in general elevation enhancement with lake effect.

Yea for sure its elevation-as well tends to do better with lake effect and the warm tongue scenarios that plagued my old stomping ground in Bethel Park!  So I move here for the snow and the Mountains, and end up with a fierce El Nino!....what a crapper...lol

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Too bad all we have are fantasy maps. hopefully things are starting to change in the long run for the good.  This first map is for Christmas and the 2nd is for next 45 days.  So hopefully the CFS is picking up a good pattern to get rid of the snow drought.  The GFS this am is showing potential around the 21st for a good storm.  Has been consistent with a storm ding that period.  

CVsx938WoAIoGxw.pngCVsx92HWIAAqDqH.png

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000

SXUS71 KPBZ 122238

RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

537 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

...WARMEST DECEMBER 12TH ON RECORD IN PITTSBURGH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 65

FROM 2007. THE LOW WAS 50. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE WAMEST LOW

TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE WHICH WAS 49 FROM 1927. THE MEAN

TEMPERATURE WAS 59. THIS IS ALSO A RECORD, SURPASSING THE MEAN OF 56

FROM 1965.

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I looked up the snowfall history for Pittsburgh. Only 4 times in our history have we gone an entire month of December with just a trace of snowfall. Only once we had no measurable snowfall at all. We're at a trace right now. Not sure when that happened exactly, but that's what is listed. We might have a shot at some LES this upcoming weekend and then temps go back up again after that. I think no matter what, we're going to end up seeing one of the driest Decembers ever in terms of snowfall. Personally, I have yet to see a snowflake so far. I have never gone this late in any year without at least seeing flurries at some point. Again, I say personally since I know some of you have seen some flakes. I just haven't yet. El Nino is definitely doing a number on us so far.

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