my winter call

[Tom]

put this out a few weeks ago, this is focused on NJ will see how I do

 

​Dec:
The month will start off mild to warm, the pattern will look to flip between the 12th and 16th to a normal temp then after the 20th a cold wintery pattern will lock in. As a whole the month might end up -0.5 to +0.5 so overall temps right around normal but it won't feel normal due to the extremes from start to end.
Snowfall
4-10" statewide, obviously higher amounts in mountains of NW NJ and lesser right along SE coast.
Chance of white Christmas above normal chances I'd say

Jan:
1st-15th Starts off colder than normal temps -1.0 to -1.5 below normal (normal is mid 30's north to around 40 south daytime and 20 north to 25 south night time lows)
15th-31st no January thaw this year, however normal temps likely with a few days above normal not a long stretch though temps north 0 to -.5 and south .5 to -1 (yes I am saying colder than "normal" temps will be southern areas however the northern areas will still be colder due to their normal temperature being colder)
Snowfall:
16-24" statewide (right along SE coast 8-12")

Feb:
1st-15th colder than normal temps -1 to -1.5 north and -1.5 to -2 south, again that is relative to normal which is north mid 30's south 40 daytime and 20 north to 25 south nighttime.
16th-29th (leap year extra day of winter lol) temps warming back to normal
Snowfall:
12-20" statewide (right along coast 5-10")

Mar:
1st-15th colder than normal temps -1.5 to -2 statewide
16th-31st normal to start ending above normal as month ends overall +0.5 to +1 statewide
Snowfall:
wildcard I will say above normal chance at a big storm coming up the coast climatology says snow to rain to snow type of storm with more snow to northwest. So I'll go 3 - 12" statewide (0 to 8" along coast)

OVERALL
Temps will be -1.5 to -2
Snowfall
North NJ 35-40" (60-75" in higher elevations NW)
Central NJ 33-38"
South NJ 26-33"
Coastal NJ 13-23"

What can go wrong (negatively if you like snow) if El Nino region 1-1.2 right along the South American coast warms more will bring warmer temps and more rain and much less snow. That data will be looked at middle of November when it will apply.

What can go wrong or right if you want more snow if the El Nino region 1-1.2 cools and Reg 3-3.4 starts to weaken and +PDO and +PNA lock in can mean more snow especially south of 195 and coastal areas

 

[Animal]

 

put this out a few weeks ago, this is focused on NJ will see how I do

 

​Dec:

The month will start off mild to warm, the pattern will look to flip between the 12th and 16th to a normal temp then after the 20th a cold wintery pattern will lock in. As a whole the month might end up -0.5 to +0.5 so overall temps right around normal but it won't feel normal due to the extremes from start to end.

Snowfall

4-10" statewide, obviously higher amounts in mountains of NW NJ and lesser right along SE coast.

Chance of white Christmas above normal chances I'd say

Jan:

1st-15th Starts off colder than normal temps -1.0 to -1.5 below normal (normal is mid 30's north to around 40 south daytime and 20 north to 25 south night time lows)

15th-31st no January thaw this year, however normal temps likely with a few days above normal not a long stretch though temps north 0 to -.5 and south .5 to -1 (yes I am saying colder than "normal" temps will be southern areas however the northern areas will still be colder due to their normal temperature being colder)

Snowfall:

16-24" statewide (right along SE coast 8-12")

Feb:

1st-15th colder than normal temps -1 to -1.5 north and -1.5 to -2 south, again that is relative to normal which is north mid 30's south 40 daytime and 20 north to 25 south nighttime.

16th-29th (leap year extra day of winter lol) temps warming back to normal

Snowfall:

12-20" statewide (right along coast 5-10")

Mar:

1st-15th colder than normal temps -1.5 to -2 statewide

16th-31st normal to start ending above normal as month ends overall +0.5 to +1 statewide

Snowfall:

wildcard I will say above normal chance at a big storm coming up the coast climatology says snow to rain to snow type of storm with more snow to northwest. So I'll go 3 - 12" statewide (0 to 8" along coast)

OVERALL

Temps will be -1.5 to -2

Snowfall

North NJ 35-40" (60-75" in higher elevations NW)

Central NJ 33-38"

South NJ 26-33"

Coastal NJ 13-23"

What can go wrong (negatively if you like snow) if El Nino region 1-1.2 right along the South American coast warms more will bring warmer temps and more rain and much less snow. That data will be looked at middle of November when it will apply.

What can go wrong or right if you want more snow if the El Nino region 1-1.2 cools and Reg 3-3.4 starts to weaken and +PDO and +PNA lock in can mean more snow especially south of 195 and coastal areas

 

 

Bring on the snow

 

Nice write up.

[RedSky]

Plenty detailed we shall see how it plays out. Did not include March in my winter guesstimation but I think it makes three cold March's in a row(boohiss)

 

The 500lb gorilla is the ultimate strength of the Nino and if the models are right about it weakening early winter, they tend to be not so skilled with these things. 

[Tom]

thanks, I have put out my call to friends on facebook past few years, first time here, glad i haven't been bashed yet, and yes bring on the snow

[hazwoper]

Not sure how you can come out with a far colder and snowier than normal forecast with most signs pointing toward the opposite to near normal, but I am pulling for ya.

[Tom]

im not really that much colder, even said southern areas will be colder than northern based on normals

[Harbourton]

I will bet you 10 bucks against your January snowfall totals and your total NJ snowfall totals.

[JTA66]

Good luck with your outlook. As a snow lover, I certainly hope your forecast works out. But as RedSky noted, it's kind of hard to ignore the influence of a strong El Nino.

 

I've read all the ideas by people much smarter than me why this won't be a repeat of 97-98 -- SSTA configuration, +PDO, tropical forcing, etc. But still, to me strong Nino = raging Pac jet flooding North America with mild air.

 

My hope is this Nino is closer to 82-83 and we can time an event or two to bring us memorable snows. We'll see. 

[Tom]

i am a gambler 10 bucks isn't worth it, add a zero and give me a location and i'll listen

[Ralph Wiggum]

Some of you folks calling out his winter call are completely ignoring the forecasts of a rapidly weakening El Nino. This could potentially throw a wrench into many seasonal outlooks. Couple this with the fact that parts of Texas and the deep South are progged to get accumulating snows over the next 10 days just reinforces the fact that this El Nino episode is NOT acting in a traditional manner for November.

Guess we will wait and see what happens.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

Over in my forum, some have already cancelled winter several weeks ago....

 

I find it funny that as we all are interested in gathering information regarding all of the pieces to the upcoming winter puzzle, that some still like to speak in absolutes...especially after the last few seasons.  I'm as big a snow lover as any, but find it intriguing how a change in any one variable can change a pattern/outlook, for better or worse.  Some of the best remain hesitant while others seem to let their bias get in the way of good forecasting.  As its looking like a backloaded winter at best, a quicker drop to the Nino (or a longer duration - which seems to happen more often than not) can have a radical effect, let alone the many other moving pieces to this puzzle.

 

Good luck w/ the call.

 

Nut

 

Nut

.

[Birds~69]

Overall, nice and detailed forecast. I just think your S and Coastal Jersey snow totals are a bit high but it only takes one storm to put the totals in range.

[Tom]

we all know seasonal calls are not easy, that being said beer drinking hobbyist (me) vs Hurricane....for the most part we agree on all but one month we shall see how January unfolds

[Voyager]

My hope is this Nino is closer to 82-83 and we can time an event or two to bring us memorable snows. We'll see. 

 

I like your thinking! I'd rather get my 40 inches (normal for Schuylkill County) in 3 to 4 big events over 10 to 15 nickel and dime events.

 

And nice write-up Tom. Wishing you the best with your forecast, even though I'm a raging warmanista...lol

[AnthonyDabbundo]

I'm going with 35-40 inches in SEPA. A couple big storms hopefully. 

[AnthonyDabbundo]

El Nino will be weakening, look at what has already happened on the east side. Peruvian current cooling it off. I think we get a solid winter, not as prolonged cold obviously 

[ChescoWx]

For what it's worth here is one hobbyist view of the upcoming winter. These are based on local NW Chester County averages

 

Month by Month Temp and Snow with departure from normal vs. local Chester County Averages (1983-2014 - above 660 ft ASL)

 

November at +4.0 Temp with 0" of snow  (-1.2")

December at +2.0 Temp with 4" of snow (-1.0")

January at +1.0 Temp with 8" of snow (-2.8")

February at - 4.0 Temp with 21" of snow (+8.7")

March at - 5.0 Temp with 10" of snow (+5.1")

April at -2.0 Temp with 2" of snow (+0.9")

Forecasted 2015/16 seasonal snow in NW Chester County of 45.0" (+9.4" above normal seasonal snow of 35.6")

[Harbourton]

i am a gambler 10 bucks isn't worth it, add a zero and give me a location and i'll listen

Area code 08534. About 20 miles north of Trenton NJ, elevation 200 feet above sea level. I'll split your forecast for 15-20 to 17.5. 100 bucks it is. Merry Christmas.

[MJO812]

Area code 08534. About 20 miles north of Trenton NJ, elevation 200 feet above sea level. I'll split your forecast for 15-20 to 17.5. 100 bucks it is. Merry Christmas.

[Tom]

so my call was calling for a flip late Dec that would hold, that is not gonna be the case, I am sticking to my call for Jan through early March, for NJ.....we'll see how the overall call is in 3 months

[Tom]

whats the call for Hopewell?  we are close enough that even if it's just a bar tab bet.....let me know

[Harbourton]

whats the call for Hopewell?  we are close enough that even if it's just a bar tab bet.....let me know

I'm a little hesitant to place bets in the long term time. IF the El Nino starts collapsing rapidly early February, late January plenty of time for a big snowstorm that would blow out strong El Nino years typical snowfall totals. But this is a strong El Nino and would not bet against low snow totals. I will guesstimate less than 20 inches total for my area all things being equal. Weird thing so far is the lack of rain in my area with the pattern in place.

[Tom]

if the big storm doesn't show up than yeah i can see less than 20"   however one big storm can drop 24"+ is this type of winter so I agree sooo tough hoping for one or two huge dumps

[ChescoWx]

Looks like I will be not warm enough - although I was warm with my December call - clearly no snow so a miss there. However still liking the warm start to January but a cold end getting me to +1 and then snowy Feb and Mar look good from here....we shall see what we shall see!

 

For what it's worth here is one hobbyist view of the upcoming winter. These are based on local NW Chester County averages

 

Month by Month Temp and Snow with departure from normal vs. local Chester County Averages (1983-2014 - above 660 ft ASL)

 

November at +4.0 Temp with 0" of snow  (-1.2")

December at +2.0 Temp with 4" of snow (-1.0")

January at +1.0 Temp with 8" of snow (-2.8")

February at - 4.0 Temp with 21" of snow (+8.7")

March at - 5.0 Temp with 10" of snow (+5.1")

April at -2.0 Temp with 2" of snow (+0.9")

Forecasted 2015/16 seasonal snow in NW Chester County of 45.0" (+9.4" above normal seasonal snow of 35.6")

[Tom]

it's so depressing i ended up doing my Christmas shopping online entirely this year, since it's so warm every place is way to crowded for my liking, i like cold temps keeps the less motivated home shopping online.  

[AnthonyDabbundo]

Area code 08534. About 20 miles north of Trenton NJ, elevation 200 feet above sea level. I'll split your forecast for 15-20 to 17.5. 100 bucks it is. Merry Christmas.

Thought I would bump this... Harbourton time to pay up! Lol all it takes is one storm

[Harbourton]

whats the call for Hopewell?  we are close enough that even if it's just a bar tab bet.....let me know

I'll buy you a beverage of your choice. Oh by the way, I'll take the same bet next January 15-20 inches. Give me a PM with your address.

[Harbourton]

Thought I would bump this... Harbourton time to pay up! Lol all it takes is one storm

I didn't see you putting any skin in the game ANTHONY.

[AnthonyDabbundo]

Well I probably wouldn't have made a bet with anyone here but I did bet a friend that we'd get more than 35 inches this year, and we're at 27" so $25 is coming my way soon

[Tom]

​all good, if you ever get down to chickie and petes in Bordentown meet up for a few beers, get up there with friends often......next year if la nina sets in hoping of anything over 5 inches in January