rolltide_130 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This is sort of a continuation of the thread for the same system being discussed in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes thread. A very strong trough is expected to dig into the Great Plains on Wednesday and eventually push east on Thursday. Looks like the warm sector could be more impressive across Dixie Alley compared to the Ohio Valley, but the trough may be too far to the northwest. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This is sort of a continuation of the thread for the same system being discussed in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes thread. A very strong trough is expected to dig into the Great Plains on Wednesday and eventually push east on Thursday. Looks like the warm sector could be more impressive across Dixie Alley compared to the Ohio Valley, but the trough may be too far to the northwest. Time will tell.rolltide...Thanks for starting this thread. Always glad to see some new thread-starters. Keep us updated on what you see. Jax is a severe wx guy. So, is Jeff. I am more of a winter wx guy. But I watch these threads closely now as my house has a fresh roof and new gutters thanks to baseball size hail a year ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Memphis is the place to be in the Valley by the OZ GFS.MUCapes 432 (j/kg) with dp's @68.Storm coming through late afternoon into the early evening never hurts.PW'S 1.91". Lapse rates as well 6.1.Don't see any reason why there couldn't be some mesovortice wrapped in,at least anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN CA AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNER REGION. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT...MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED. AT THE SFC...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINANT THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..BROYLES.. 11/07/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Memphis off the GFS 12z,Jackson is about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro surface gust..h114-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Some poor lapse rates on the 18z .Don't see the convection like the GFS has been showing towards Memphis.We'll see if this is just a hiccup and see what the 0z says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Meet Me in Saint Louis. More than a Broadway number? Models are struggling to put together the event probably based on low clouds and junk drizzle. However it is a dynamic system. Love to wake up Wednesday in STL and then decide from there, but that will not be the case for me. WF may surge north but instability will be better in the Mid-South - still with nice speed shear down toward MEM. Perhaps low top near WF and sfc low. Maybe we will get a good desk chase, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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