bdgwx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 18Z GFS is a little weaker than the 12Z, could be alot worse. Remember: 18Z Runs are always somewhat iffy this far out. Nah, this isn't really true now and hasn't been for awhile. NCEP's official position summarizes the technical details pretty well. Also, look for dtk's posts on this forum. He has to debunk the myth on here pretty frequently it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It seems climate would favor a narrower warm sector this time of year. I'm thinking we get a powerful QLCS with some surprises along the way with this upcoming system. And i hope it is strengthening rather than occluding as it moves into the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It seems climate would favor a narrower warm sector this time of year. I'm thinking we get a powerful QLCS with some surprises along the way with this upcoming system. And i hope it is strengthening rather than occluding as it moves into the Midwest. Agreed, not much to do now except wait for the 0Z Suite for a clearer answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Agreed, not much to do now except wait for the 0Z Suite for a clearer answer. We're still 4 days out.... what may seem clear now may not be the same in 24-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 FWIW 0z NAM has a 992mb low in W KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Very end of the NAM run; 992 mb low exiting western KS, CO. Can't wait to see what wild solutions the NAM comes up with in the coming days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Not liking how the NAM is trending for anyone in Illinois that likes storms. Deepens the low out in Kansas and slows it down. Also, it takes a low inland on the E coast, reducing the moisture for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Not liking how the NAM is trending for anyone in Illinois that likes storms. Deepens the low out in Kansas and slows it down. Also, it takes a low inland on the E coast, reducing the moisture for this storm? Despite recent slowing in other guidance, it's the NAM at 84 hours, so yeah use at your own peril. That low isn't going to make much of a difference, moisture return is already rather stingy. This is going to be more of a lapse rate driven event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Gotcha. Thanks for clearing it up. **Looks like the GFS sped itself back up ever so slightly. GFS and NAM seem to be in agreement with, at least, the position and pressure of the low through 84 hours.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 At hour 84 the 0Z GFS is the same mb as the NAM at the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 GFS sub 990 by 18Z 11NOV in SW iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 High Wind Warning criteria winds WAY away from the low on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 980 mb low in Central Wisconsin by 06Z on the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 This things a beauty so far on the 0Z, alot faster than the 0Z and with stronger winds in a lull meaning the strongest winds occur in the first round, and another round comes by a few hours later with equal winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 That's really cranking on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 0Z once again has a good chunk of instability (250-500 j/kg) , supports a low topped line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The GFS actually has some halfway decent mid level lapse rates moving across IL/IN on Wednesday. Problem is that low level moisture is more of a question this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The GFS actually has some halfway decent mid level lapse rates moving across IL/IN on Wednesday. Problem is that low level moisture is more of a question this time. gfsCGP_con_lapse57_093.gif gfsCGP_con_lapse57_096.gif I don't buy the low level moisture on the GFS the winds are going to be screaming out of south ahead of the system and the warm sector isn't as small this run. I don't know what the deal is with the GFS, if it is leaning more toward climo or if there is another issue at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The GFS actually has some halfway decent mid level lapse rates moving across IL/IN on Wednesday. Problem is that low level moisture is more of a question this time. gfsCGP_con_lapse57_093.gif gfsCGP_con_lapse57_096.gif Just brought this up to my friend. Any reason why that big plume at 12z dies off once the system starts moving? Is it because of the low level moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Still looks pretty good on GFS concerning the low topped squall. I'll be disappointed if tomorrow morning's hour 84 NAM doesn't come in more moist than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Continue to be interested in the front end wind potential, especially if a deeper solution like the GFS pans out. Here's a forecast sounding from northwest IN at 00z Thursday and right around the time the GFS has a line moving in. The question will be how much of a stable layer there is near the surface. Otherwise, 55 kts at 900 mb so you do the math. And these winds are out of the SSE which is a bit atypical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Just brought this up to my friend. Any reason why that big plume at 12z dies off once the system starts moving? Is it because of the low level moisture? I'm guessing they start to get overturned by rain but I haven't checked too closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Continue to be interested in the front end wind potential, especially if a deeper solution like the GFS pans out. Here's a forecast sounding from northwest IN at 00z Thursday and right around the time the GFS has a line moving in. The question will be how much of a stable layer there is near the surface. Otherwise, 55 kts at 900 mb so you do the math. And these winds are out of the SSE which is a bit atypical. 00_GFS_096_KVPZ_skewt_SB.gif Yeah no doubt. That's an amazing hodograph too. GFS is showing gusts up to 60 MPH in the "warm" sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Canadian with sub 990 over QC at 00z 12NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Not too shabby I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ECMWF/GFS very similar with surface low depth at 96 hours. GFS just a couple mb stronger. ECMWF a bit slower though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ECMWF at hour 108 has the same as the GFS in the center, but is much stronger farther away from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Ignorant question: is wind gust speed a direct output variable from the GFS or is it a derived quantity places like InstantWxMaps have their own formula for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Euro has been weaker than the GFS with it's past 3 runs or so. Generally settling into the mid 980s at peak strength. Looking like the GFS forecasts of sub 980mb will be too robust. GFS is already starting to back off the really deep solution. Still looking like a very impressive storm, but not quite as impressive as some of the really amped up GFS op runs have advertised. Should be a very windy system, but widespread warning criteria winds may not come to pass. Widespread wind advisories/local high wind warnings will probably be what we see if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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