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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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I noticed that. You can see a quasi-dryline encroaching into western MO before it starts mixing out. It's pretty well mixed out by the time it reaches the Mississippi River.

 

Edit: It surges much farther east on the Euro making it almost to St. Louis before mixing out. That almost never happens even in the spring.

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That warm sector blows. Looks like a very potent system that will mostly go to waste.

 

2015 in a nutshell.

 

This is why +EPO > -EPO, troughing setting up over AK and the Gulf of Alaska along with a -PNA can really set up some big cutters.

Quit complaining, were getting active. This is a wind system.

Your posts have no substance to them, just FYI.

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To illustrate what I mentioned a little while ago, here are 18z GFS dewpoints.  We don't have good moisture in place in the days prior to this storm so what we don't want is a narrowing true warm sector as suggested here.  This got worse compared to 12z so it will be something to keep an eye on.

 

post-14-0-29718800-1446937654_thumb.gif

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Just a quick question, why are 18z models considered, I guess, and outlier?

 

This run occlusion and less instability makes it a massive outlier

 

In general: The 18Z GFS has the worst verification at hour 120 than any of the runs, followed by the 06Z which is slightly better, with the 0Z and 12Z generally being close for the best.

 

I don't have a run bias, this run just seems iffy.

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This run occlusion and less instability makes it a massive outlier

In general: The 18Z GFS has the worst verification at hour 120 than any of the runs, followed by the 06Z which is slightly better, with the 0Z and 12Z generally being close for the best.

I don't have a run bias, this run just seems iffy.

Didn't the 12z Euro also occlude quicker than the 12z GFS? Which means this run isn't a "massive outlier"? But I guess it's just as easy to toss this run since the 12z runs verify just ever so slightly better than 18z runs at 120 hours.
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I understand the worries about instability being weak and the warm sector being narrow and all that... trust me, I'd like some severe weather too... but I'm excited for this system regardless. It's a hell of a system. Even if we don't get a low-topped squall, it looks like there's gonna be the possibility of non-convective damaging winds. It's been a while since I've been under a high wind watch/warning. That'd be cool. 

 

I mean, look at this system. Sure, it has so much more potential than what will likely transpire... but sometimes ya gotta sit back and enjoy the event for what it is from a Meteorological perspective. Just like this year's Nino.. I'm gonna enjoy tracking this until it's gone, regardless of the outcome

Fg0n9H9.png

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What annoys me is that we haven't been able to get these type of systems (wound up / negative tilt) in the dead of winter lately, when it's cold enough for precipitation beyond stratiform rain.

 

Think December 1, 2006 for example. 

 

 

If I'm right about my winter outlook, there should be more chances at these big bombs.  Of course, no guarantees that they will track favorably or be cold enough.  :P

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Didn't the 12z Euro also occlude quicker than the 12z GFS? Which means this run isn't a "massive outlier"? But I guess it's just as easy to toss this run since the 12z runs verify just ever so slightly better than 18z runs at 120 hours.

 

 

Yeah, the off hour runs are not as bad as they are sometimes made out to be.  Use them for trends and a piece of the larger puzzle.  If I was told I could only look at 2 model cycles per day, I'd probably pick 00z and 12z, but the off hour runs aren't bad enough to where they should just be tossed out of hand. 

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Yeah, the off hour runs are not as bad as they are sometimes made out to be.  Use them for trends and a piece of the larger puzzle.  If I was told I could only look at 2 model cycles per day, I'd probably pick 00z and 12z, but the off hour runs aren't bad enough to where they should just be tossed out of hand. 

I can't wait until we get into NAM range... it usually has some interesting solutions in its long range ;)

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To those making a big deal out of the minor shift in the 12Z to 18Z solutions...what exactly do you expect? This system is still 5 days out and quite frankly the current solution is very likely to change drastically. Exhibit A; the very last system to affect the region. 5 days out 50-60 mph gusts were resolved over a very large portion of the area. When the physical system actually came to fruition, the low had formed much further north and gusts ended up being much lower. Its good to look at trends but one slight shift 5 days out is hardly significant.

 

What was modeled by the GFS 5-days out:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

 

What ended up actually happening:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1.png

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