Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The GGEM is always tamer. I haven't found that to be the case. There's times when it's really aggressive and times where it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I haven't found that to be the case. There's times when it's really aggressive and times where it's not. I notice on summer storms it's stronger, and closer to winter it's not. Also 12Z ECMWF is running. I'll post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Good news is that there are some total nukes on the 12z GFS ensembles, much like the op run. Seems like less spread than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS trend to the west is disappointing for Toronto. Oh well! Hope it's awesome for the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS still has advisory to high wind warning criteria winds in the warm sector. As I mentioned yesterday, this is often a region where mixing is more limited and you have a harder time bringing those very strong winds to the surface (compared to a CAA regime) but this would be an instance where it could happen if the surface low/resultant wind fields end up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 If this storm crosses the Marquette MI area with a pressure lower than 982mb, then it will be an analog for the Edmund Fitzgerald storm with lower pressure. It will most likely not surpass the winds the Fitzgerald had. For the Fitzgerald, "Modeled winds suggest gusts between 70-75 knots (80-86 mph / 129-138 km/h) and waves to 25 ft (7.5 m). (The model simulation of the event was undertake by NOAA using the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Wind-Wave Model.) It is of note that the Fitzgerald went down at the time and place shown by the model simulations to have the worst wind/wave conditions in that area." http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/fitzgeraldstorm.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Ehh if you have weak instability and such strong shear you need some pretty strong forcing to get organized convection, as the strong shear will rip apart updrafts that form from the meager instability...I think this was discussed some in the thread for the last system. Although yes at the end of the day we have seen some decent events with little CAPE when forcing has been strong enough. I'm not sure if you're from near Ohio State, but the Halloween 2013 event from that area is a good local example...even had a couple of tornadoes with that in central Ohio too...although I think the best with this one is mainly west of Ohio if it pans out like the recent GFS and Euro runs show. I'm glad you pointed out forcing because it seems to never be as simple as "shear will overcome" or "no, you must have instability". This past week was a great example of junk surface convergence and poor height falls. With such strong surface forcing and much better height falls on this upcoming storm, I would expect less instability to be necessary. But I've been disappointing too many times to believe in the "you only need shear" idea. This may be a case where the required CAPE for a decent risk of damaging winds is quite low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 This could me major for Eastern Missouri: The GGEM is always tamer. I haven't found that to be the case. There's times when it's really aggressive and times where it's not. Before its most recent upgrade, the GGEM would usually be the model with the unrealistically aggressive solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 ECMWF looks like it's coming in pretty similar. May end up bombing a bit quicker/track a bit west of the GFS initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 12z Euro is southeast of the 0z run. Between OAX and DSM at 0z Thursday then into western/central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro with 983 x 1031 at 12z 12NOV SLP in NE Wisconsin ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 12z Euro is southeast of the 0z run. Between OAX and DSM at 0z Thursday then into western/central WI What's the pressure at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro at 0Z: Euro at 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 What's the pressure at 00z? 988mb right along I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 988mb right along I-80 Seems a little odd that it starts out deeper than the GFS but ends up weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Near PIA. Good look with a 60-80kt jet streak at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Seems a little odd that it starts out deeper than the GFS but ends up weaker. main jet core seems to out run the upper low much quicker than the GFS to the east and it doesn't deepen like the GFS has it. GFS with a more favorable look aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS/ECMWF comparison at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 main jet core seems to out run the upper low much quicker than the GFS to the east and it doesn't deepen like the GFS has it. GFS with a more avorable look aloft Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS/ECMWF comparison at 96 hours output_wAmqN7.gif Also looks like the GFS is a little more phased up with the meandering energy to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'm not sure instability is as much as a limiting factor as many are making it out to be here. Halloween of 2013 hardly reached 100 J/kg along the line yet nearly 350 winds reports still came in. As of right now, this system is more dynamic, deeper, and the GFS already is indicating at least 100 J/kg across the northern potions of the squall line. And that's the GFS...I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM gets us up to 250-500 J/kg which would be legit moderate risk territory. Even then, the system is still 5 whole days out. Oh yeah, I know... 2013-14 was full of these events. I remember the models progging a zone of like 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE back then. That MLCAPE of 1500 on that ILN sounding is surprising. Yeah, like I said, given the temp profiles... I don't think that's legit. It doesn't look like there's much CAPE in that sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Oh yeah, I know... 2013-14 was full of these events. Yeah, like I said, given the temp profiles... I don't think that's legit. It doesn't look like there's much CAPE in that sounding I guess I should clarify what I said earlier. I'm not 100% sure it was MLCAPE...may have been MUCAPE...all I remember is seeing maps with like 500-750 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I guess I should clarify what I said earlier. I'm not 100% sure it was MLCAPE...may have been MUCAPE...all I remember is seeing maps with like 500-750 J/kg.The Halloween event in 2013? I don't believe it was MLCAPE was that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The Halloween event in 2013? I don't believe it was MLCAPE was that high. No, talking about 10/26/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 List of CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours, based on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 No, talking about 10/26/2010 Here is the MCD image from the time when they were about to issue a tornado watch for MI with the MLCAPE overlaid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Here is the MCD image from the time when they were about to issue a tornado watch for MI with the MLCAPE overlaid Ok, then it's probably MUCAPE that I was remembering. In any case, another example of how the instability bar is lowered to get a pretty decent severe weather outbreak when you have such highly dynamic systems. Actually kinda scary to think about the potential if we combined, say, 1000 J/kg CAPE with these kinematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 ILN .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO LIFT NORTH INTOTHE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL END LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTEARLY TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING OUT AND WEAK SFC HIGHPRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVENORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60SSOUTH.THE MID LEVEL FLOW AT MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHAMPLIFICATION WITH DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NE THRU THEPLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AS 130 KT UPR LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUNDITS EAST SIDE. DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT NE FROM THE PLAINSWED MORNING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING.NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH ONSET OFPRECIPITATION. EXPECT WED TO REMAIN DRY THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITHPCPN DEVELOPING WED NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. ON WARM SIDEOF SYSTEM EXPECT WEDNESDAYS HIGHS TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVENORMAL...RANGING FORM THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH.HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT MAY DEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAYWITH SHERB PARAMETER POINTING TOWARD THIS SIGNAL. 70 KT 850MB LOWLEVEL JET HELPS ADVECT PW PLUME APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES NORTH INTOTHE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. GIVEN VERY STRONGDYNAMICS...STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVEINCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS PERIOD. ILX This next weather system will develop in the southwest and then moveout into the plains Tuesday night and then move northeast across themidwest and up into WI by Wednesday night. All models have come intomuch better agreement with the track and timing of this weathersystem. With the return flow and southerly winds coming Tue intoTuesday night, looks like warm air advection showers will developand move across the CWA Tues night. Then on Wednesday, the lowpressure area and trailing cold front will move out of the plainsand through MO...toward IL...Wednesday afternoon and into theevening. Dewpoints in the CWA should reach into the middle 50s,while 60 dewpoints will not be that far away, just southwest of thearea. This system also promises to be strong dynamically with a strongmid level jet out of the southwest and a good southerly jet as well.Models forecast the system becoming negatively tilted in IL duringthis time frame so am expecting strong thunderstorms in the areabeginning Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. SPC hasalready hinted at the possibility of severe weather on Wed and basedon the strong dynamics and sufficient moisture being forecasted,fully agree with their forecast. Know it may be too early tomention, but Nov is our mini-max period for tornadoes, and manysignificant outbreaks have occurred in Nov...most recently theWashington tornado from 2013. So, is severe weather possible on Wedin the CWA...yes. What types of severe weather could wesee...damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Something I'd look for is just how fast this system begins to occlude. Occluding systems definitely are not always a dealbreaker for severe weather, but given the time of year and the fact that we won't already have good moisture in place at these latitudes prior to this system, it would not help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Didn't see this mentioned but you can actually pick out a dryline type surge that comes pretty far east on the GFS on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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