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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
643 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

ILZ003>005-008-010-011-120115-
BOONE IL-OGLE IL-LEE IL-WINNEBAGO IL-DE KALB IL-MCHENRY IL-
643 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EASTERN OGLE...EASTERN WINNEBAGO...
NORTHWESTERN DE KALB...NORTHEASTERN LEE...BOONE AND NORTHWESTERN
MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

AT 643 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HILLCREST...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCHELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 70 MPH.


HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKFORD... BELOIT... BELVIDERE...
LOVES PARK... MACHESNEY PARK... ROCHELLE...
SOUTH BELOIT... ROCKTON... ROCKFORD AIRPORT...
ROSCOE... POPLAR GROVE... CHERRY VALLEY...
KIRKLAND... CAPRON... HILLCREST...
STILLMAN VALLEY... TIMBERLANE... CALEDONIA...
DAVIS JUNCTION... CRESTON...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4249 8864 4176 8902 4197 8925 4250 8912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 201DEG 63KT 4201 8912

$

MTF

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This LEWP is actually persisting even with little in the way of SBCAPE, <20J/KG per 0z soundings. However, there is MUCAPE of 250-550 over the area, which combined with the strong flow/shear, appears to be enough right now to sustain the line.

If there was even just a bit more instability and moisture, no doubt things would be even more significant right now. I'd say there's 5 areas of interest that would be of concern for tornadoes in the line of that we're the case.

 

 

Given the current organization and strong low level jet, it wouldn't really shock me to see this thing charge eastward to Chicago with little loss in strength. 

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out of DVN...

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015


0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSEVILLE               40.73N 90.66W
11/11/2015                   WARREN             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            IN ELLISON AND ROSEVUILLE TOWNSHIPS... POWER POLES
            SNAPPED. PORCHES BLOWN OFF 2 HOMES. GRAIN BINS DAMAGED.
            TREES DOWN.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015


0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W INDUSTRY            40.33N 90.63W
11/11/2015                   MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE AROUND 4 FEET IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN ON A
            HOUSE. ESTIMATING WINDS OF 60 MPH.

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Winds gusting to 70 mph at Peoria: 

KPIA 120144Z 22046G61KT 1/4SM R13/2000VP6000FT +RA FG SCT007 OVC012 13/11 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 21061/0144 WSHFT 0126 RAB33 P0027 T01330111

It was actually 71 mph and broke the November record of 70 mph, set on 11/17/13.

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leading edge of main line was pretty lifeless coming through here. Nothing to talk about.

 

I was just going to say that. Leading edge is directly over head right now and it sounds the calmest of the last 12 hours right now. I suspect the wind is rapidly shifting to the west right now and is being blocked by the big barn.

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