Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Dewpoints crashing hard in eastern Kansas. Also some gusts over 50 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0142 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MOCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 534...VALID 111942Z - 112115ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 534 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME AS STORMS IN AN ARCING BAND ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP EMBEDDEDSUPERCELL STRUCTURES.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE NEAR OMAHAWITH DRYLINE EXTENDING S TOWARDS THE WRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS STRUGGLED TO GREATLY INTENSIFY OVERTHE PAST HOUR...BUT SHOULD TURN THE CORNER AND DEVELOP SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS THE PEAK COMBO OFINSTABILITY/SHEAR/FORCING BECOMES PRESENT. CLOUD BREAKS AHEAD OF THEBAND HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60STO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NRN MO...YIELDING MEAGER MLCAPE TO AROUND 500J/KG. HIGHLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN THE 18Z TOP RAOB ANDAREA VWP DATA AMID ROBUST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 3 MB/HR IN THELEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVORFAST-MOVING CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS CONTINUINGINTO EARLY EVENING. Whole bunch of people livestreaming on tvnweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 TDS near Avoca, IA this the embedded tor warned storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Dryline moving through KC now. They also gusted to 54 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 TDS near Avoca, IA. About 2.7 miles in diameter, per my measurement on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Dryline moving through KC now. They also gusted to 54 mph. Sustained gale force now at Whiteman (SZL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Those storms in Iowa are booking it at 65MPH. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Severe warnings are 'asploding now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 About 2.7 miles in diameter, per my measurement on Radarscope There was a funnel cloud report very close to the TDS you circled at Avoca IA that said "power poles down" and "traffic accident." I wonder if they are referring to tornado damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not a bad look in Illinois if some instability can be realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That storm near Spickard, MO is looking pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not a bad look in Illinois if some instability can be realized nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_009.gif One of the best looking runs that far into IL thus far, reflectivity wise that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 new md for SE IA/NE MO and W central IL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0224 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...W-CNTRL ILCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 112024Z - 112230ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND AND A TEMPORALLY LIMITED TORNADOTHREAT SHOULD DEVELOP E OF WW 534 TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THISEVENING. WHILE WATCH TYPE IS UNCLEAR...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE ISLIKELY BY 22Z.DISCUSSION...BAND OF ARCING TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS INTENSIFIEDIN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ANDSHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS AROUND 50 KT WHICHPLACES THE MO PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW534 AROUND 2230Z. AS THE CONVECTION OCCLUDES THE NRN EXTENT OF UPPER50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN CNTRL MO...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD PEAKWITHIN WW 534. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYSSEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE TSTM BAND...A RISK FORAT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST TO THE MS RIVER. ANAPPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN TEMPORALLY CONFINED TO ABOUTAN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS THE LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITYFURTHER WANES...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY CAM GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A tornado has been reported at Corning, Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Tornado reported near Corning, IA with a non tor warned embedded storm not to long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 One of the warned storms in south-southwest IA is warned for 70 MPH winds, the storm is moving NE at 75 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forget discrete storms, looks like anything that produces will be embedded today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Is Josh on that tor warned storm in N MO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE and 400+ m2/s2 ESRH feeding that Princeton storm, couplet aloft is getting quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 One of the best looking runs that far into IL thus far, reflectivity wise that is. If you believe the reflectivity progs, it has more of a solid linear look earlier in the afternoon/evening before becoming more discrete/quasi-discrete. If we could get some sfc based instability farther east more quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Possibly a TDS just east of Mercer MO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 High Wind Warning issued for much of southern MI and northern IN. Gusts may exceed 60 mph at times. Honestly can't remember the last time we had a "High Wind Warning". May have been the Octobomb in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A tor reported a short time ago near Mount Ayr, IA with another embedded non tor warned couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Another possible debris ball... not sure because I can't tell if it's on top of the velocity signature because it's screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 High Wind Warning issued for much of southern MI and northern IN. Gusts may exceed 60 mph at times. Honestly can't remember the last time we had a "High Wind Warning". May have been the Octobomb in 2010. There was one on 11/17/2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 TDS popped when the couplet passed over Princeton, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 TDS popped when the couplet passed over Princeton, MO. Considering there has been no tornado confirmed over the last 15 min, I'm leaning against that being a TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That Princeton supercell might be a monster. It's killing me that I can't see the velocity with the Des Moines radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That Princeton supercell might be a monster. It's killing me that I can't see the velocity with the Des Moines radar. Yeah, it's got a donut hole on the reflectivity. A few streamers are on this cell https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 High Wind Warning issued for much of southern MI and northern IN. Gusts may exceed 60 mph at times. Honestly can't remember the last time we had a "High Wind Warning". May have been the Octobomb in 2010. To give you some sort of idea: for the LOT area, the last high wind warning was 1 year and 10 days ago, for MKX, it was 1 year and 263 days ago. I got this information from http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/severe.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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