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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 534...

VALID 111942Z - 112115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 534 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK IN THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME AS STORMS IN AN ARCING BAND ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE NEAR OMAHA
WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING S TOWARDS THE WRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS STRUGGLED TO GREATLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE PAST HOUR...BUT SHOULD TURN THE CORNER AND DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS THE PEAK COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR/FORCING BECOMES PRESENT. CLOUD BREAKS AHEAD OF THE
BAND HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NRN MO...YIELDING MEAGER MLCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG. HIGHLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN THE 18Z TOP RAOB AND
AREA VWP DATA AMID ROBUST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 3 MB/HR IN THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVOR
FAST-MOVING CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY EVENING.

 

 

Whole bunch of people livestreaming on tvnweather.com

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new md for SE IA/NE MO and W central IL

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND AND A TEMPORALLY LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP E OF WW 534 TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WHILE WATCH TYPE IS UNCLEAR...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
LIKELY BY 22Z.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF ARCING TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS INTENSIFIED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS AROUND 50 KT WHICH
PLACES THE MO PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW
534 AROUND 2230Z. AS THE CONVECTION OCCLUDES THE NRN EXTENT OF UPPER
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN CNTRL MO...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK
WITHIN WW 534. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE TSTM BAND...A RISK FOR
AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST TO THE MS RIVER. AN
APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN TEMPORALLY CONFINED TO ABOUT
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS THE LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
FURTHER WANES...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY CAM GUIDANCE.

post-3774-0-79811800-1447273739_thumb.gi

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One of the best looking runs that far into IL thus far, reflectivity wise that is.

 

 

If you believe the reflectivity progs, it has more of a solid linear look earlier in the afternoon/evening before becoming more discrete/quasi-discrete.  If we could get some sfc based instability farther east more quickly...

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High Wind Warning issued for much of southern MI and northern IN.

Gusts may exceed 60 mph at times.

Honestly can't remember the last time we had a "High Wind Warning". May have been the Octobomb in 2010.

To give you some sort of idea:

 

for the LOT area, the last high wind warning was 1 year and 10 days ago, for MKX, it was 1 year and 263 days ago. I got this information from http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/severe.phtml

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