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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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Thinking that will change a bit by tonight. GFS has moved the system further N from the 12z guidance. Also, it has strengthened it from 1002mb to 994mb on the 18z. But, everyone I talk to on Twitter seems to dismiss this next storm, as saying it won't do anything. :/ 

 

People are in the "want it to happen, but not very willing to PUNT" mode

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Thinking that will change a bit by tonight. GFS has moved the system further N from the 12z guidance. Also, it has strengthened it from 1002mb to 994mb on the 18z. But, everyone I talk to on Twitter seems to dismiss this next storm, as saying it won't do anything. :/ 

 

huh? Why do you think it will change? 

 

Both the 12z and 18z GFS take the sfc low from just north of STL to Gary..

 

Ugh. Twitter. Ugh

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huh? Why do you think it will change? 

 

Both the 12z and 18z GFS take the sfc low from just north of STL to Gary..

 

Ugh. Twitter. Ugh

Was talking about the CIPS analogs. Just talking about how the low was just a tad bit N of where it was when they took the 12z analog run. Unless, it goes back south with the 00z. Just a vague statement. 

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Was talking about the CIPS analogs. Just talking about how the low was just a tad bit N of where it was when they took the 12z analog run. Unless, it goes back south with the 00z. Just a vague statement. 

 

 

There's a lot that goes into the CIPS formula.  MSLP is only one variable...

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I really like this setup. Even if we can only get 100-250 j/kg of CAPE, with helicity values well over 600, I could see a major QLCS event occurring. 60+ dew points stretch all the way into Indiana and with 60+ kts at 925 mb only increasing with height, this could put 10/31/13 to shame.

 

gfsUS_850_vvel_132.gif

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If this run is on target, it would be one of the better wind setups we've seen at least in the past few years.  Phenomenal wind fields Wednesday into Thursday (50-65 kts as low as 925 mb), rapidly deepening surface low and fairly strong CAA.

 

Yeah it's looking extremely impressive.  New GFS showing a wide swath of sustained 34-38kts at 10m in the western and southern quads of the departing surface low.  That would equate to a legit high wind warning setup for a wide swath if it were to verify.

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The southern wave/trof come out as a whole this run which allows for this to reach its max potential. The northern shortwave that was showing up on previous runs across the northern plains and into MN isn't there this run.

 

Much stronger mid-level jet streak as this thing ejects out on tonight's 0z run and then it's bombs away. Below freezing temps at 850mb are able to get wrapped and advected into it into NE but even below that it's too cold for any snow.

 

Pretty wide expansion of 50-60kts at 925mb late Weds night into Thursday morning as it bombs 

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Man those warm 500 mb temps are just a giant pain considering how spring went.

 

 

We'd either have a high end wind or tornado outbreak with this setup if instability was better, no doubt about it.  I'll be interested to see if the NAM is better when it gets in range as we all know how the GFS can tend to be underdone.

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GFS with 50-60mph+ wind gusts here on the front side and backside of the system. Don't see that often.

 

 

Check out the obs from 11/10/1998.  This run of the GFS is even more impressive.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORD/1998/11/10/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Chicago-O%27Hare+International&req_state=IL&req_statename=Illinois&reqdb.zip=60666&reqdb.magic=5&reqdb.wmo=99999

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You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we'd still get a pretty robust severe weather event even with the lackluster instability on the GFS.  I always say, watch out for unusual results with unusual systems, and such a deep/bombing surface low with those kinds of wind fields is not something you see in our area very often.  Plus we aren't talking about an entirely pathetic airmass as dews are modeled to be in the 50s/60s.

 

11/10/1998 wasn't anything to write home about as far as instability and look what happened:

 

post-14-0-36047300-1446876135_thumb.png

 

 

Who knows if the GFS solution pans out though or if it ultimately trends more tame.  We still have 5 days to go.

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You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we'd still get a pretty robust severe weather event even with the lackluster instability on the GFS. I always say, watch out for unusual results with unusual systems, and such a deep/bombing surface low with those kinds of wind fields is not something you see in our area very often. Plus we aren't talking about an entirely pathetic airmass as dews are modeled to be in the 50s/60s.

11/10/1998 wasn't anything to write home about as far as instability and look what happened:

attachicon.gif98.png

Who knows if the GFS solution pans out though or if it ultimately trends more tame. We still have 5 days to go.

Kinda goes without saying but it's too early to call on things like will there be enough instability etc as you allude to. Pattern recognition wise, if something as strong as some of these operational runs are showing occurs, I'd be surprised if it's not accompanied by a fairly robust severe threat. The non t-storm wind threat looks impressive from this vantage point. Overall think a cautious approach is best for a few days and look at the op runs as part of the ensemble envelope. Didn't get a chance to look at individuals on the 12z GEFS, but there had to have been a decent amount of weaker/less organized solutions based off the mean. Hopefully it remains something fun to track up to go time.
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