Indystorm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I find it interesting that Gil from NIU weather mentioned in today's update that there is growing concern for a few long lived, long track tornadoes south of I-80. I presume he was referencing Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forbes upped torcon to 5 for SE Iowa and NE mizzu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Definitely have some discrete supercells appearing on the 4km NAM this evening. Nice tongue of higher PWATs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 RGEM wind gust maps continue to look impressive. Certainly would support gusts poking into warning criteria for a relatively widespread area. Will be curious to see the HRRR when it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Definitely have some discrete supercells appearing on the 4km NAM this evening. Nice tongue of higher PWATs too. pwat111115.png Reminds me a bit of what we were expecting in the April 9 event this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forbes upped torcon to 5 for SE Iowa and NE mizzu I can see why 4KM NAM came in hot in those areasSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 CMC bottoms out low at 984mb near Red Wing, MN. GFS; 983 mb little further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 For once, RAP's dew points for 21z aren't too far off NAM's. Temps are slightly warmer in the warm sector on RAP. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH are also better on RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 For the SWODY1 I'd probably expand the slight risk farther N/E, into N. IA/far S. WI/ and into LM to include NE. IL. I would also expand the enhanced risk a bit north to an AMW-CID-SQI line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 For the SWODY1 I'd probably expand the slight risk farther N/E, into N. IA/far S. WI/ and into LM to include NE. IL. I would also expand the enhanced risk a bit north to an AMW-CID-SQI line. Do you think a 10% tornado risk is likely?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Do you think a 10% tornado risk is likely? Sent from my iPhone I'd probably go with 5% for now, with possible upgrade to 10% tomorrow. 30% wind for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I can see why 4KM NAM came in hot in those areas Sent from my iPhone Yeah...lotta discrete action there...and all the way up to lake Michigan for that matter...Looks like he dropped NE IL from the torcon completely...not sure I agree with that. I agree with Joe on his D1 first update thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 For the SWODY1 I'd probably expand the slight risk farther N/E, into N. IA/far S. WI/ and into LM to include NE. IL. I would also expand the enhanced risk a bit north to an AMW-CID-SQI line. Reed Timmer is/was thinking a secondary severe hotspot down south where the right entrance(?) region is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Reed Timmer is/was thinking a secondary severe hotspot down south where the right entrance(?) region isBest threat is probably north of and SGF-PAH line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Best threat is probably north of and SGF-PAH line. Certainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here comes the moisture return. Low 60s up through central OK, and mid 50s up to southeast KS. If these dews were moving north like this 24hrs ago this setup would be downright scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here comes the moisture return. Low 60s up through central OK, and mid 50s up to southeast KS. If these dews were moving north like this 24hrs ago this setup would be downright scary. The amount of "ifs" this year has been legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Only 5% tornado for now... 30% wind. Basically saying moisture/CAPE is too weak, and the extreme shear might just add insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Lol, 2015. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NWD -- MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY STABLE THROUGH FROPA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL MEAGER/LOW-TOPPED CAPE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED...WITH THE EXTREMELY STRONG WIND SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY BEING A DETRIMENT IN THIS CASE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. WHERE STORMS CAN BE SUSTAINED -- AND THUS ABLE TO UTILIZE THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A marginal risk all the way to Pennsylvania? This could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A marginal risk all the way to Pennsylvania? This could be interesting I'm more "excited" for the daytime gusts than the marginal risk. I say excited relatively, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 HRRR showing a very nice dry line surge on the nose of the mid-jet axis. Teens in eastern KS with near 60 across the line in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 HRRR showing a very nice dry line surge on the nose of the mid-jet axis. Teens in eastern KS with near 60 across the line in MO. Dang, that's a heckuva dry surge. RAP showing something similar as well (dews in the teens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 6z RAP has a wider area of dewpoints in the 50s than the NAM/GFS at the end of the run. Who knows if it's on the right track...just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I think the SPC is right to worry about the shear... at least in my experience, wind shears this high completely shred storms before they can get too severe, but it would be insane to think some pockets of lower shear wouldn't support some intense storms. Tough forecast. It could really go either way with such a large area. I would be surprised to see anything long-track result from this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here comes the system, High Wind Watches up east of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 SPC morning update introduced a 15% hail in the Enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Pretty awesome to have thunderstorms, up to 2" of rain, gusts to 40mph and snow all in the forecast over a 24 hr period. Won't get the elevated instability or extremely high winds this far north. But good luck to everyone downstream today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here we go http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md1937.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 HRRR really cranks the winds later. Note: this is the experimental HRR on the ESRL site. The operational version (on CoD) is slightly less enthused on the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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