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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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Lol, 2015.

 

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER --  
PARTICULARLY FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NWD -- MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY  
STABLE THROUGH FROPA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL  
MEAGER/LOW-TOPPED CAPE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO  
BECOME ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED...WITH THE EXTREMELY STRONG WIND SHEAR  
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY BEING A DETRIMENT IN THIS CASE  
TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. WHERE STORMS CAN BE  
SUSTAINED -- AND THUS ABLE TO UTILIZE THE STRONGLY SHEARED  
ENVIRONMENT...UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR A TORNADO OR  
TWO WILL RESULT.
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I think the SPC is right to worry about the shear... at least in my experience, wind shears this high completely shred storms before they can get too severe, but it would be insane to think some pockets of lower shear wouldn't support some intense storms. Tough forecast. It could really go either way with such a large area. I would be surprised to see anything long-track result from this, though.

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