RyanDe680 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 By the way I always think this is James Spann facepalming in this emoticon. I always thought it was Arti Bucco (Sopranos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I mean, I could be wrong and perhaps we end up with a solid line that has a lot of damaging wind reports, but the NAM/4 km NAM with its more discrete looking activity gives me pause and makes me wonder if it will be more in the way of discrete cells/broken lines. Storm mode is definitely up in the air. The NAM all along has said this no? It looks as if its trying to form a line, but you end up with a bunch of discrete cells along a mass.. Sounds interesting for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Curious to see that E NE and W IA snow band... looks like a nice burst for a bit to remind you of whats not too far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The northward shift output_cbZ5Qp.gif mKnew that northern shift had to happen soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 IWX mentioned possible High Wind Watches needed later, based on how the models keep upping the winds it is a very safe idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT really doesn't sound too enthused and it's hard to disagree, best threat looks well west over the IA/MO/IL tri-state area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT really doesn't sound too enthused and it's hard to disagree, best threat looks well west over the IA/MO/IL tri-state areaGino raises some good points. I'd favor a non-event for the CWA. IF moisture advection is better than progged, looooook outSent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 If the new NAM is to believed, watch out Southern Iowa/Northern Missouri border region tomorrow afternoon possibly extending into Western Illinois. That's going to have to be watched very carefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 If the new NAM is to believed, watch out Southern Iowa/Northern Missouri border region tomorrow afternoon possibly extending into Western Illinois. That's going to have to be watched very carefully Radar no-mans-land... booo. I guess the bright side of that is that means its not very populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Rocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT really doesn't sound too enthused and it's hard to disagree, best threat looks well west over the IA/MO/IL tri-state area Looks like more of a non severe wind damage potential for our area. DMX pulled the trigger on the High wind watches. * WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 ENH was trimmed on the southern end, and slight risk trimmed on the eastern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Rocking... I don't know, winds don't seem that astounding for the eastern side of this subforum. But then again, 50 mph gusts are probably exciting for most people. I personally would consider wind gusts of 55+ mph to be worthy of my excitement. Maybe I'm just hard to please? I guess I'm most looking forward to the longevity of the wind event.. it's odd to have both the front and back sides of this storm packing a punch in the wind department. Doesn't look like sustained winds here will exceed 25 knots. Kind of disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 ENH was trimmed on the southern end, and slight risk trimmed on the eastern end. both good calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 If the new NAM is to believed, watch out Southern Iowa/Northern Missouri border region tomorrow afternoon possibly extending into Western Illinois. That's going to have to be watched very carefully SPC looks like a NAM forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 SPC at its prime, great trimming and a great write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I don't know, winds don't seem that astounding for the eastern side of this subforum. But then again, 50 mph gusts are probably exciting for most people. I personally would consider wind gusts of 55+ mph to be worthy of my excitement. Maybe I'm just hard to please? I guess I'm most looking forward to the longevity of the wind event.. it's odd to have both the front and back sides of this storm packing a punch in the wind department. Doesn't look like sustained winds here will exceed 25 knots. Kind of disappointing. Hmm I would tend to disagree. Still a decent wind event around here. 25kts sustained wind is notable and BUFKIT was showing gusts to 53kts off yesterday's 00Z GFS momentum transfer (behind the front). Haven't had a chance to run BUFKIT today but I'd expect that to remain consistent and the NAM will likely come in higher today (was showing 48kts yesterday).Obviously severe potential is limited around here but we will still likely see blanket High Wind Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The 12Z GFS has alot of gusts to 60 mph not counting the Severe Showers that everyone is saying will have big gusts. So, I'd say a good wind event is primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Harrisale : Unlikely for Wind Warnings here. Criteria is 70 kph gusting 90 kph. This event looks more like 45 kph gusting 75 kph. Sub-criteria event for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 With the cooler weather making shingles a bit more brittle, hours of sustained winds of 40-50+ will likely cause more damage to roofing than normal (or what would be expected during summer months). On the flip side, at least in the DKB area, all the trees are bare. As such, tree damage should be somewhat minimal. This duration of high winds coupled with full trees and ComEd's power network would have caused severe power outages. Still kicking around the idea of chasing, but storm motion may be so fast that it will not be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 With the cooler weather making shingles a bit more brittle, hours of sustained winds of 40-50+ will likely cause more damage to roofing than normal (or what would be expected during summer months). On the flip side, at least in the DKB area, all the trees are bare. As such, tree damage should be somewhat minimal. This duration of high winds coupled with full trees and ComEd's power network would have caused severe power outages. Still kicking around the idea of chasing, but storm motion may be so fast that it will not be worth it. Not bare trees here. Well, some are, but a lot of them still have some leaves. There's actually one outside my front door that's still all green lol. But I'd imagine most of the trees won't put up much resistance and it will be a blizzard of leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 yep, plenty of leaves remain but i imagine we'll see mass casualties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not rocking in a sense for me. But at the data for winds west of me. Severe threat for me was over 2 days ago lol. Wind driven ran for me. Thinking around 20-25mph and some gusts near 40mph possible with current course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Working on a blog post that I should have done within the next hour or so hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Harrisale : Unlikely for Wind Warnings here. Criteria is 70 kph gusting 90 kph. This event looks more like 45 kph gusting 75 kph. Sub-criteria event for the GTA.EC issued wind warnings last week for sustained winds of 40-50km/h and only a few isolated gusts of 80-90km/h. I think we'll see them again for this event, considering models have gusts in the 90-95km/h range. Also I should mention I'm looking at BUFKIT for Kitchener-Waterloo not YYZ proper. Seems as though they are willing to break from the criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 63 degrees right now in Denver, with 3-6" of snow expected overnight. Now that is quite the turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 https://codforecast.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/severe-weather-forecast-discussion-for-111115/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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