Natester Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 A bit off topic but the 0z NAM shows accumulating snow on the backside in central Iowa. I don't really buy that but it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Discrete cells out in front and cold enough for some snow in Iowa! Not bad timing with the snow... 3z. Enough to make it "look" wintry for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 A bit off topic but the 0z NAM shows accumulating snow on the backside in central Iowa. I don't really buy that but it could happen. I'd be ok with severe weather followed by a reminder of winter coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The updraft helicity isn't bad for this time of year, either. Impressive precip tracks being signaled on multiple consecutive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Discrete cells out in front and cold enough for some snow in Iowa! Not bad timing with the snow... 3z. Enough to make it "look" wintry for a time. Gotta love Midwest weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I know it's at 850 mb, but check out the pockets of 70kt (~80mph) winds over Lake Michigan and IN/IN border. Hurricane force. 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I know it's at 850 mb, but check out the pockets of 70kt (~80mph) winds over Lake Michigan and IN/IN border. Hurricane force. 925mb Could translate to the ground nicely, it just keeps getting stronger and stronger for the upper level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z NAM did get a little stronger with wind fields, however if it were a continual trend over the past couple days we'd probably be seeing like 100 kts at 850 mb by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Gotta love Midwest weather. If that comes to fruition that snow would be falling in an area where wind gusts could easily be in the 50-60mph range. Man that would be one hell of a change from the action they'll get there earlier on in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS is a little deeper this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 If that comes to fruition that snow would be falling in an area where wind gusts could easily be in the 50-60mph range. Man that would be one hell of a change from the action they'll get there earlier on in the day. Kind of like November 11, 1911, albeit much less extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Kind of like November 11, 1911, albeit much less extreme. The mother of frontal passages. Had a decent severe wx outbreak too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS even pops a nose of 55DP up to I80 in portions of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The mother of frontal passages. Had a decent severe wx outbreak too. For sure. November 11 record high in OKC is 83 (1911), record low is 17 (1911). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I know it's at 850 mb, but check out the pockets of 70kt (~80mph) winds over Lake Michigan and IN/IN border. Hurricane force. Sucks if you are flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS would support warning criteria winds in the LOT cwa, at least on Thursday morning. Top of the mixed layer around 850 mb with at least 60 kts at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Sucks if you are flying Yeah, no kidding! @ Hoosier; 925mb level is not much better! 60-65mph gusts possible by Cyclone?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Anyone have any chasing plans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 700mb vorticity. CMC is pretty fast with the winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Could see 40mph+ wind gusts here from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, with two periods of 50mph+ gusts possible. Can't think of a period of wind like that in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Anyone have any chasing plans? I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Could see 40mph+ wind gusts here from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, with two periods of 50mph+ gusts possible. Can't think of a period of wind like that in recent memory. Yeah the only storm I can think of that would be remotely like that is the 98 storm at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Anyone have any chasing plans? Short handed at work this week, so unless something moves through locally after 4pm I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Could see 40mph+ wind gusts here from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, with two periods of 50mph+ gusts possible. Can't think of a period of wind like that in recent memory. Even in November 1998, ORD had 40+ mph gusts from about 7 AM on the 10th to about 4 AM on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here in the QCA it looks like we could have some 45-50mph wind potential in the warm sector late Wed afternoon/early evening before the convection moves through. Then sort of a lull (relatively speaking) before the core of strong northwesterly winds moves through around daybreak. Could see 45-55mph wind gusts with that. Still thinking the main shot of CAA and associated speed max with better mixing could yield strong wind gusts Thursday night. Possibly well into advisory levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The eastern Lake Michigan shoreline should be a fun place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 0Z GFS has a much more High Wind Warning criteria event, has a 64mph gust on Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS forecast soundings would indicate some high wind warning criteria possibilities for northern IL early Thu. The soundings indicate mixing up to about 900mb, where winds are in the 55-60kt range. That's 60-70mph just off the deck. Considering unidirectional wind profiles, mixing up to around 900mb, and possible precipitation helping to bring down some higher momentum air I think a 2-4hr period of warning criteria winds are quite possible over eastern IA and northern IL Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z RGEM is out for Wed. 4mb deeper than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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