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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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Can any of the met's on here answer this for me:

 

IWX has a slight risk for their Southwest Counties, and a Marginal for most of their Indiana/Ohio counties, and yet they didn't mention it at all in the AFD, HWO (which isn't even on the product listing, you have to did it up on IEMBot or NWR) and don't even have thunder mentioned at all.

 

How does this work, because IWX is kinda known for doing stuff like this before event's, and then one happens and they get somewhat caught off guard.

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Can any of the met's on here answer this for me:

 

IWX has a slight risk for their Southwest Counties, and a Marginal for most of their Indiana/Ohio counties, and yet they didn't mention it at all in the AFD, HWO (which isn't even on the product listing, you have to did it up on IEMBot or NWR) and don't even have thunder mentioned at all.

 

How does this work, because IWX is kinda known for doing stuff like this before event's, and then one happens and they get somewhat caught off guard.

Not sure what you are talking about, this was directly from their AFD:

 

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON DLAD TIMING WRT MIDWEEK SYSTEM WITH WELL FOCUSED

MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSE NRN CA CUTOFF ENERGY IN BASE OF SHARP WRN

CONUS TROF TO SLIDE INTO 4 CORNERS REGION TUE NIGHT THEN BEGIN

LIFTOUT THROUGH CNTL PLAINS ON WED. TRACK TAKES ON CCW ARC AS IT

BECOMES NEG TILTED INTO SECONDARY NRN STREAM SYSTEM /PRESENTLY OVR

GULF OF AK/ DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS/FAR SCNTL CAN. ALL BUT REMOVED POP

MENTION SAVE FAR WRN CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY RAISE

TEMPS ON WED WITH MORE OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL WAA. CONTD MENTION OF

SLIGHT CHC TSRA ON FRINGE OF LLJ WING LIFTING RAPIDLY NNEWD ACRS NRN

IL AT 00 UTC THU AND INTO SCNTL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06 UTC. PRIMARY

FOCUS FOR PROBABILISTIC MENTION OF TSRA IN 00-06 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH

BEST COLOCATION OF DOWNWARD TRENDING MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG AND

LEADING/SERN EDGE OF INTENSE MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID

/200-250M PER 12 HRS/ ACROSS WRN/NWRN CWA. STRONG SFC BASE LAPSE

RATES AIDING IN MOMENTUM XFER THU FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LIKELY IN

30-40 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO APPEAR GOOD AND COVERED IN HWO. DRY

SECONDARY DIGGING INTO UPPER GREAT LALES THU NIGHT/FRI FOR SMALL CHC

MIXED SHRA/SHSN POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. THEREAFTER DRY AND

MODERATING TREND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AMID HIGH BELTED WESTERLIES

WITH NEXT SRN/SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM POSING THE NEXT RAFL POTENTIAL LATE

DY8-DY9.

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Not sure what you are talking about, this was directly from their AFD:

 

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON DLAD TIMING WRT MIDWEEK SYSTEM WITH WELL FOCUSED

MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSE NRN CA CUTOFF ENERGY IN BASE OF SHARP WRN

CONUS TROF TO SLIDE INTO 4 CORNERS REGION TUE NIGHT THEN BEGIN

LIFTOUT THROUGH CNTL PLAINS ON WED. TRACK TAKES ON CCW ARC AS IT

BECOMES NEG TILTED INTO SECONDARY NRN STREAM SYSTEM /PRESENTLY OVR

GULF OF AK/ DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS/FAR SCNTL CAN. ALL BUT REMOVED POP

MENTION SAVE FAR WRN CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY RAISE

TEMPS ON WED WITH MORE OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL WAA. CONTD MENTION OF

SLIGHT CHC TSRA ON FRINGE OF LLJ WING LIFTING RAPIDLY NNEWD ACRS NRN

IL AT 00 UTC THU AND INTO SCNTL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06 UTC. PRIMARY

FOCUS FOR PROBABILISTIC MENTION OF TSRA IN 00-06 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH

BEST COLOCATION OF DOWNWARD TRENDING MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG AND

LEADING/SERN EDGE OF INTENSE MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID

/200-250M PER 12 HRS/ ACROSS WRN/NWRN CWA. STRONG SFC BASE LAPSE

RATES AIDING IN MOMENTUM XFER THU FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LIKELY IN

30-40 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO APPEAR GOOD AND COVERED IN HWO. DRY

SECONDARY DIGGING INTO UPPER GREAT LALES THU NIGHT/FRI FOR SMALL CHC

MIXED SHRA/SHSN POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. THEREAFTER DRY AND

MODERATING TREND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AMID HIGH BELTED WESTERLIES

WITH NEXT SRN/SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM POSING THE NEXT RAFL POTENTIAL LATE

DY8-DY9.

 

I meant more for the public, we all understand the AFD's but the public just hears/sees jargon. 

 

 

Hillsdale is awful

 

You should come visit some time. 

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RGEM wind gust map suggesting 80-90 km/hr, or about 50-55 mph, on the front end in IL at 00z.  Again though, we'll have to see if we can mix well enough to bring those higher winds aloft to the surface.  The back end wind potential seems like a safer bet at this point.

 

post-14-0-46765200-1447108344_thumb.gif

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LMK has an interesting take

Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early.  For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers.  And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds....

 

Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled.  

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To clarify, I wasn't referring to the town but you as a poster

I mean I wouldn't put it that way but I think Hillsdale needs to keep his personal emotions in check because I think that may be getting to him. I have personal experience with that and now I make sure to keep personal emotions out of my ideas and forecasting.

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I mean I wouldn't put it that way but I think Hillsdale needs to keep his personal emotions in check because I think that may be getting to him. I have personal experience with that and now I make sure to keep personal emotions out of my ideas and forecasting.

Yeah, posting less and taking in the experience is always the best way to go.

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Yeah, posting less and taking in the experience is always the best way to go.

Yeah thats the point of this forum. I don't want HillsdaleMIWeather to be discouraged or want to stop following weather because we're telling him to not post unrealistic comments, it happens to all of us.

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Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early. For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers. And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds....

Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled.

I'm not extremely enthused...I'd be hotter on the idea of the low wasn't including well before the front got to OH.
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Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early.  For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers.  And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds....

 

Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled.  

 

I'm not extremely enthused...I'd be hotter on the idea of the low wasn't including well before the front got to OH.

 

Yeah I've let go of the possibility that we could get some damaging showers. I'd feel better if I was back home near Cincinnati, but I knew that was gonna have to be a sacrifice for moving to SE Ohio.  :rolleyes:

 

I'm looking forward to tracking some storms on the radar though. That can be fun.

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Yeah I've let go of the possibility that we could get some damaging showers. I'd feel better if I was back home near Cincinnati, but I knew that was gonna have to be a sacrifice for moving to SE Ohio. :rolleyes:

I'm looking forward to tracking some storms on the radar though. That can be fun.

I'm in Cincinnati and I'm not all that impressed even here!

Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk

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To a degree: lrgnamsfc2005111221.gif

It has somewhat similar dynamics for you, but a different track to this system for the rest of the sub forum. I'd say you could have similar effects. 

 

So if you translate that 21z low position from 11/12/05 from near Sioux Falls to southwest Iowa, where the GFS/NAM project it to be this Wednesday at 21z, and use the same transformation on the central Iowa tornadoes of 11/12/05, you get the primary tornado risk in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois for this system?

 

I've had very little time to look at this, so I have little time for more than a simple analog transformation based on your comparison to 11/12/05. :)

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