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November 11th-12th storm system


Thundersnow12

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I think I need to stress that the CAPE in the mid/low levels here are really not unimpressive at all. A lot of the soundings I've seen show pretty fat CAPE profiles up to the EL (which is generally between 400-500 mb). There is a very large amount of 0-3 km CAPE available for low level stretching here. You could feasibly have some pretty robust updrafts, just obviously low topped storms.

 

CTV6ZYaUsAA4v4G.png

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I think I need to stress that the CAPE in the mid/low levels here are really not unimpressive at all. A lot of the soundings I've seen show pretty fat CAPE profiles up to the EL (which is generally between 400-500 mb). There is a very large amount of 0-3 km CAPE available for low level stretching here. You could feasibly have some pretty robust updrafts, just obviously low topped storms.

 

CTV6ZYaUsAA4v4G.png

Great point

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ECMWF overview and CIPS:

 

[removed graphics]

 

At hour 54, trending stronger than it was in the same location at 12Z

 

At Hour 60, same as the 12Z

 

Hour 66 is the same as 12Z

 

Hour 72 looking as juicy as ever

 

The CIPS analog this time around looks more reasonable:

 

SVRgfs212F072.png

 

with the second to top analog looking alot like this system, only with the low further west:

 

NARR4pSYN1b_1998111012.png

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