Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Several of the last GFS runs (including the latest 12z) and the 0z Euro have this system and are quite impressive. GFS goes nuts with the surface low deepening once it closes off aloft and has a 110kt mid-level jet streak going over some pretty juicy moisture as well. Another possible big trough to watch. Too bad it wasn't Dec or Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This would be a big severe weather threat...if there was a half-decent warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Looks like it has good wind potential, not really for snow or severe. Standard November wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro looks even stronger aloft at 144hr compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Been a nice signal for something in this timeframe. At least hopeful that we can get this to bomb out before it scoots away in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Looks like a nice windy soaker for some. Snow won't be an issue, but I'd still like to get into the deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Too bad it wasn't Dec or Jan Very first thing that popped into my head after seeing the 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 so sick of snow i'll take these warm bombs overhead all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 so sick of snow i'll take these warm bombs overhead all winter I'll take that and raise you this same system in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Low pressure systems seem to really like to be in the northern Lakes on November 10th. It's just really weird how many disasters or at least bad weather has happened on November 8th-11th in various years in the Great Lakes. After all, I heard a tornado siren on November 10th one time, northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Low pressure systems seem to really like to be in the northern Lakes on November 10th. It's just really weird how many disasters or at least bad weather has happened on November 8th-11th in various years in the Great Lakes. After all, I heard a tornado siren on November 10th one time, northwest Ohio. Yeah, that timeframe has had some big ones...1913, 1940, 1975, 1998...and that's just off the top of my head. Let's add 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 18z GFS is pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Not sure you can get more classic at 500 mb for a potential severe setup than the 18z GFS on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Not sure you can get more classic at 500 mb for a potential severe setup than the 18z GFS on Wednesday. You could have better mid level lapse rates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 18z GFS would be pure weather porn if it were cold enough for snow in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 You could have better mid level lapse rates though. Yeah, it's pretty lame that you get a system like that with such mediocre thermos. You wouldn't need a ton of CAPE to pull a significant event out of that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 18z GFS would be pure weather porn if it were cold enough for snow in the cold sector. No kidding. It almost looks like the lead wave across the nrn plains and into MN on Tue/Wed screws up any chances of getting enough cold air down here to maybe make it more interesting in regards to any snow. The way the wave closes off aloft and goes neg tilt over us is amazing and textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yeah, it's pretty lame that you get a system like that with such mediocre thermos. You wouldn't need a ton of CAPE to pull a significant event out of that, though. Agreed. As modeled, it has some aspects that are more favorable than the system that just passed through. A bit more moisture/instability and it gets really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 12z Canadian was also on board for this timeframe as well...timing a little different...but also goes sub 990 in the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Agreed. As modeled, it has some aspects that are more favorable than the system that just passed through. A bit more moisture/instability and it gets really interesting. I mean, I'd argue this system is more impressive than the one from Halloween 2013 and that managed to pull over 30 tornadoes out of very low instability. If we can get some appreciable 0-3 km CAPE, that might be your ticket to low-topped supercell fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 How about 100 kts at 700 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 As of today's GFS runs, the highest CAPE I can see is early Wednesday in KS, MO, and OK, although it is notable the the 60 dew points get pushed over to Indianapolis. There may be some severe wx from SE Kansas to Indianapolis and southward of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 EURO seems to be a bit further north than the GFS, albeit not by far. Hope we can get some lowtop supercells goin' here in Illinois. If not, it still looks like most of Illinois will get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 CMC Even the JMA is onboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 That is a potent jet core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 18Z GFS has a severe threat as far north as Detroit, with not much instability (a 2 on the Supercell Composite), so it could still be viable. Also has a 63.3 mph wind gust over Branch County, MI at 15Z on 11/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 CIPS Analog for posterity, looks... descent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 CIPS Analog for posterity, looks... descent Looking at the individual dates, at least a couple of them were on the system that just went through. Kinda funny. And look at #2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Thinking that will change a bit by tonight. GFS has moved the system further N from the 12z guidance. Also, it has strengthened it from 1002mb to 994mb on the 18z. But, everyone I talk to on Twitter seems to dismiss this next storm, as saying it won't do anything. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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