Amped Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It looks a bit more symmetrical now 20151108.0400.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.05AMEGH.90kts-956mb-127N-561E.100pc.jpg I don't remember a previous year where there were 2 major Arabian sea cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Megh has turned into a tiny buzz saw this evening. Satellite estimates suggest a much stronger TC than 90 kt at 00z. The dreaded pinhole eye is evident. Hopefully we will get pressure readings from Socotra Island to get an idea of how strong it actually is. Dvorak satellite estimates often underestimates TC intensity when they are very small. Interesting when TC threatens an area not typically threatened, and what you find out about the area. "The island is very isolated and a third of its plant life is found nowhere else on the planet. It has been described as "the most alien-looking place on Earth"." Population of the island is 44,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socotra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Newest track information. Really nasty on Socotra right now. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=05A&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 This is worrying. A 115-kt direct hit on Socotra. Anyone have any observations from Socotra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Latest 85 GHz and earlier precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 https://twitter.com/191_mod/status/663303888582393856 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 GPM made a direct overpass of Megh at 1233Z today just after it crossed Socotra. The radar data shows the compact core seems to have stayed mostly intact despite terrain interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 1422Z 37 GHz overpass shows the eye south of due west of Socotra, meaning it probably passed more over the centre rather than the north of the island and therefore the northern eyewall probably clipped the northern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 According to this site, the eye skirted the northern coast. Still a Cat 3 on the last update. Megh is heading towards the war torn region of western Yemen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 1422Z 37 GHz overpass shows the eye south of due west of Socotra, meaning it probably passed more over the centre rather than the north of the island and therefore the northern eyewall probably clipped the northern coast. Goes was pretty clear that it did hug the northern coast, trying to extrapolate microwave passes in 12hr intervals isn't the best way of determining the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Goes was pretty clear that it did hug the northern coast, trying to extrapolate microwave passes in 12hr intervals isn't the best way of determining the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Indeed geostationary (Meteosat) had the eye center on the northern coast of Socotra. Presently looks like it's aiming more at Somalia, right at the horn of Africa. Landfall maybe soon about 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Going to be a close call for the Horn of Africa (Somalia) for sure. Pretty sparsely populated right at the tip. Largest city to be impacted in Somalia would be Bosaso. On the Yemen side, Megh looks like it's heading for the vicinity of Aden or just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Some parts of Somalia are already suffering from El Niño-enhanced flooding, with around 90,000 people affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Meanwhile 95B has brought up to 9 inches of rain in southeastern India as it's moved inland over the past 24 hours. It could re-emerge the other side into the Arabian Sea as another possible development. http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=15N&lon=075E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2015&mes=11&day=09hora=06&vr4=R4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Looks like the center went just north of the Horn of Africa at 00Z, though still some impact on land. Image is at 01Z. Getting more disorganized as it hits Yemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Meanwhile 95B has brought up to 9 inches of rain in southeastern India as it's moved inland over the past 24 hours. It could re-emerge the other side into the Arabian Sea as another possible development. http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=15N&lon=075E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2015&mes=11&day=09hora=06&vr4=R4 Looks like it became better organized as it hit the E coast of India. And in this higher resolution view even pretty tight while over India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That last image above looks like a hurricane over land. Of course I know it is just high cloud tops. Definitely looks like it has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 News update on Megh from Nov 9: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/09/unprecedented-second-freak-tropical-cyclone-to-strike-yemen-in-the-same-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 News update on Megh from Nov 9: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/09/unprecedented-second-freak-tropical-cyclone-to-strike-yemen-in-the-same-week/ This sentence really says it all - from Chapala. Chapala had unloaded 16 to 24 inches of rain over Socotra, according to NASA satellite estimates, equivalent to nearly a decade of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Did Megh have even more rainfall than Chapala over Socotra? Here are additional news reports. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/11/Cyclone-killed-14-on-Yemeni-island-officials-say-.html http://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/world/cyclone-killed-14-on-yemeni-island-officials-say/ar-CCdXOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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