Fergal Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Invest95A off the west coast of India seems to be generating a circulation today. Nothing up on JTWC yet but OHC is high and shear is low so could we see another cyclone in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hell, that looks like a 50 mph TS to me, give it a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hell, that looks like a 50 mph TS to me, give it a name. Megh is the next name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I believe the models are taking this one on another trip to Yemen/Oman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 And they generate another cyclone over the eastern Indian Ocean that moves westwards to affect eastern India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 From the JTWC: WTIO21 PGTW 050230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 66.4E TO 13.4N 60.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042221Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 65.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 67.0E (INVEST AREA 95A), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 651 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042326Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 041639Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060230Z.// NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 How amazing is this? Identical path to Chapala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 How amazing is this? Identical path to Chapala. More rain for an area that just received several times their annual average. And the track similarities really are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Also worrisome about this cyclone is the differences with Chapala. The track is slightly further south, and that raises the possibility of a Somalia landfall. Because it is (relatively) densely populated and extremely poor, even weak landfalls in Somalia can be very deadly. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Somalia_cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Chapala removed a lot of heat from the water along its track, which should act to hold the new system back a bit. The HWRF still brings it to the 950s by the time it reaches Socotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 TCHP Today Last week, before Chapala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 It is now TC Megh. The latest JTWC forecast has raised the MSW from 60 to 80 kts, with it around this when it hits Socotra early Sunday. It's such a pity we can't get observations from Yemen or Somalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Megh has been encountering some easterly shear and it's looking sickly this morning. The HWRF says Megh should be a cat 2 right now, so it's way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 The thread title should be changed to TC Megh. Ship A8SO7 AS Victoria was just 35 NM from the centre at 1200Z today and reported SSE winds of 38 knots. It is enroute to the Suez Canal so is following the storm westwards. It hasn't made a report at 1800Z. The latest forecast has downgraded somewhat to a peak of just 65 knots as dry air is battling against the low shear and warm seas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 AMSR2 showing a compact system with good banding in the recent convective burst: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Aye, it's a big burst too, with some tops reaching -90C. Might have some RI underway, given the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 The JTWC calls it a "near-midget-sized" cyclone now and has increased its peak to 85 knots as it directly hits Socotra tomorrow. This could be devastating, even worse than Chapala, which passed to the north of the island. REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 58.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ALSO APPARENT IN THIS NEAR-MIDGET-SIZED CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, A 070611Z ASCAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER FIDELITY TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND AIDS IN THE JUSTIFICATION TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 60 KNOTS, DESPITE LOWER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN HIGH AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST KEEPING TC 05A ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYCLE. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WHILE THE ISLAND OF SOCOTRA WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT OF TC MEGH’S ABILITY TO INTENSIFY, THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WILL TRULY START THE DECAY OF THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO SOME COLD MOATS OF WATER IN THE GULF OF ADEN IN THE WAKE OF TC 04A. JUST BEYOND TAU 72 TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN YEMEN AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATE, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Aye, it's a big burst too, with some tops reaching -90C. Might have some RI underway, given the environment. Eye has cleared out after the burst, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 AMSR2 showing a compact system with good banding in the recent convective burst: MEGH.2123.AMSR2.png On a side note amsr2 is just beast. I wish one of these govt agencies or anyone would create a website to utulize all major satellite data into usable real time graphics in every way the satellite can be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Eye has cleared out after the burst, for sure. image.jpg Indian ocean ssta in September were the highest on record there. Highest for any September. These super ninos tend to promote IO warming. Is there any historical precedent for more NWIO TCs during super nino years? Nino induced warming will be off set a bit by these back to back cyclones. I would expect October to come in well above September. Before Chapula the IO was roasting. Although the Pattern changed a bit recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 On a side note amsr2 is just beast. I wish one of these govt agencies or anyone would create a website to utulize all major satellite data into usable real time graphics in every way the satellite can be used. Here are some images on the RAMMB page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO052015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Indian ocean ssta in September were the highest on record there. Highest for any September. These super ninos tend to promote IO warming. Is there any historical precedent for more NWIO TCs during super nino years? Nino induced warming will be off set a bit by these back to back cyclones. I would expect October to come in well above September. Before Chapula the IO was roasting. Although the Pattern changed a bit recently. Here is a paper explaining the rapid increase in IO HC. This plus the phase-2 MJO have led to interesting times. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n6/full/ngeo2438.html?WT.ec_id=NGEO-201506 On a side note, does anyone have a source of Yemen or Somali observations? All my usual sources draw a blank for these two countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Megh's outflow appears somewhat restricted to the east/southeast as upper level flow is shooting in from that direction. The satellite appearance has backed off since the eye cleared out for a bit this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The source for AMSR2 microwave images is the near-real time data stream from NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement Mission, which aims to unify precipitation measurements from all microwave imagers and sounders. Tropical cyclone images from GPM, AMSR2, SAPHIR, and SSMIS are generated automatically and placed in daily directories here (e.g., for today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_05A/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_05A/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html Time-sensitive direct link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Megh has held its strength well this afternoon, appears on its way to a direct hit on Socotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The deeper convection has wrapped all the way around the storm now, although it's still a bit unsymmetrical. Maybe its approaching cat. 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It looks a bit more symmetrical now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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