IllinoisWedges Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Opinion for Chicago? Not able to access models, atm. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I think the RGEM wind gust product captures a scenario that we are likely to see unfold overnight tomorrow/Friday morning. Besides whatever convective line there is that will be capable of producing strong/severe gusts, there should be a window along/immediately behind the front where non-thunderstorm winds get into advisory or perhaps high wind warning criteria range in some areas, with the greatest non-thunderstorm high wind potential generally occurring east of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Do you think the NWS offices should put out a wind advisory for a mix of convective/non-convective gusts over 40mph, or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Day 1 outlook. Bottom is the HRRR which might make chasers reconsider their option to not chase, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Chinook, the offices opted to go with nothing and issue Special Weather Statements when needed, I could maybe see a short fused high wind warning later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 NAM has lowered instability on the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 NAM has lowered instability on the last couple runs. Not surprising at all. Didn't hardly recognize you with a new avatar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 With the 1630z update, the SPC upgraded their tornado probs to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Not surprising at all. Didn't hardly recognize you with a new avatar! Ha. Time for a change. Although that pic doesn't quite do it justice as it was really like 964 mb at that time. Also the 5% wind area came east on the 1630z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Todays day 1 is slowly encroaching further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Also the 12Z GFS and NAM are alot more windier, they NEED to issue wind products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 T-storm watch up for western MO. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Ha. Time for a change. Although that pic doesn't quite do it justice as it was really like 964 mb at that time. Also the 5% wind area came east on the 1630z outlook. Love the avatar! Could use a program to change that 970 into 964? DIY project Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 New 18z 4km NAM has over 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE across northern IL tonight with 50-70kts of shear and a nice looking line of storms on sim ref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 New 18z 4km NAM has over 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE across northern IL tonight with 50-70kts of shear and a nice looking line of storms on sim ref nam4kmFLT_con_mucape_012.gif nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_012.gif solid i'll be sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 That 18Z NAM is really, really amped. They would need to extend the marginal to Detroit if that would verify tonight. Also: Local AFD's are leaving any wind products to the night shift, so maybe expect a few short fused HWW's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 New 18z 4km NAM has over 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE across northern IL tonight with 50-70kts of shear and a nice looking line of storms on sim ref nam4kmFLT_con_mucape_012.gif nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_012.gif More unstable than the 12 km version. In any case, can probably just about take it to the bank that any remotely organized line will be able to bring at least 40-50 mph winds to the surface, given the low level wind fields and maybe only a weakly stable/neutral lapse rate layer near the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 SPC latest MD mentions potential severe line for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 SPC latest MD mentions potential severe line for Chicago. Anytime the dry line shifts as far east as Missouri in a situation like this my interest perks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Thin line forming well west of the Mississippi right now. WRF-ARW brings the line into Cyclone's area at about 10pm. Chicago, Milwaukee about midnight or just after. Western MI about 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Thin line forming well west of the Mississippi right now. tstormline110515.png WRF-ARW brings the line into Cyclone's area at about 10pm. Chicago, Milwaukee about midnight or just after. Western MI about 4am. The NWS seriously needs to consider having a High Wind Warning up, this is looking more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL609 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015IAC011-019-055-060100-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-BENTON-609 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BENTON...BUCHANANAND DELAWARE COUNTIES...AT 606 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRAER...OR 17 MILESSOUTH OF WATERLOO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THISSTORM.THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...BRANDON AROUND 625 PM CST.JESUP AROUND 630 PM CST.ROWLEY AROUND 635 PM CST.INDEPENDENCE AROUND 640 PM CST.WINTHROP AND HAZLETON AROUND 645 PM CST.AURORA AND STANLEY AROUND 650 PM CST.LAMONT AND DUNDEE AROUND 655 PM CST.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CHENEY...FONTANAPARK...DELAWARE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...LITTLETON...BACKBONE STATEPARK...ONEIDA...INDEPENDENCE AIRPORT...MANCHESTER AIRPORT...MONTI ANDMINNE ESTEMA PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 55.FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFESHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.LAT...LON 4264 9145 4247 9121 4230 9173 4230 91834226 9184 4210 9230 4230 9230 4230 92064264 9207TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 236DEG 51KT 4224 9239$RP KINNEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The NWS seriously needs to consider having a High Wind Warning up, this is looking more serious. Well surface winds are roaring here and picking up as I type this. That segment just south of ALO is looking prime for higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Winds have been gradually increasing through the evening, especially so during light showers that have moved through from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Starting misty a little outside. Highest wind gust at UGN 31 mph so far. Below severe limits, but still some strong storm in eastern Iowa. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015IAC011-019-055-095-103-107-113-060200-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-BUCHANAN-LINN-DELAWARE-IOWA-BENTON-657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IOWA THISEVENING...AT 654 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM AURORA TO NEAR NEW SHARON...AND THE ENTIRE LINEWAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL AREPOSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OFHEAVY RAIN AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CEDAR RAPIDS...INDEPENDENCE...VINTON...MANCHESTER...MARENGO...SIGOURNEY...MARION...HIAWATHA...ROBINS...WILLIAMSBURG...BELLEPLAINE...JESUP...CENTER POINT...FAIRFAX...ATKINS...WALFORD...URBANA...CENTRAL CITY...NORTH ENGLISH AND PALO.THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 205 AND 233. INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 HRRR with some big-boy gusts moving through C. MI early morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 The lines picking up more steam. Gusts to 55 in western Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Never really expected much, but this "event" is pretty lol worthy for the QC. 10 minute period of heavy showers for the most part. Hopefully this thing ramps up again and gets more interesting for the folks east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The party's over. Cold front slamming through right now. Just ran the trash out to the curb a little bit ago and it still felt great out there. Heavy rain coming down now, and the wind has shifted to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 About the most exciting thing with this frontal passage will be the gusty winds late into the night. Just had a gust to 41mph at the airport. Leaves blowing every which way outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.