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November 6th Rain/Wind/Severe Event


HillsdaleMIWeather

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I think the RGEM wind gust product captures a scenario that we are likely to see unfold overnight tomorrow/Friday morning.  Besides whatever convective line there is that will be capable of producing strong/severe gusts, there should be a window along/immediately behind the front where non-thunderstorm winds get into advisory or perhaps high wind warning criteria range in some areas, with the greatest non-thunderstorm high wind potential generally occurring east of Lake Michigan.

 

 

post-14-0-61335300-1446695978_thumb.gif

 

 

post-14-0-28830500-1446695986_thumb.gif

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T-storm watch up for western MO.

 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   115 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     EASTERN KANSAS
     WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
     800 PM CST.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WIND...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
   CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN
   MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

 

 

post-4544-0-83006200-1446752189_thumb.gi

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New 18z 4km NAM has over 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE across northern IL tonight with 50-70kts of shear and a nice looking line of storms on sim ref

 

attachicon.gifnam4kmFLT_con_mucape_012.gif

 

attachicon.gifnam4kmFLT_prec_radar_012.gif

 

 

More unstable than the 12 km version.

 

In any case, can probably just about take it to the bank that any remotely organized line will be able to bring at least 40-50 mph winds to the surface, given the low level wind fields and maybe only a weakly stable/neutral lapse rate layer near the sfc.

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Thin line forming well west of the Mississippi right now.

 

attachicon.giftstormline110515.png

 

WRF-ARW brings the line into Cyclone's area at about 10pm.

 

nam4km_ref_ncus_4.png

 

Chicago, Milwaukee about midnight or just after.

 

wrf-arw_ref_ncus_18.png

 

Western MI about 4am.

 

wrf-arw_ref_ncus_21.png

 

The NWS seriously needs to consider having a High Wind Warning up, this is looking more serious. 

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

IAC011-019-055-060100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-BENTON-
609 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BENTON...BUCHANAN
AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 606 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRAER...OR 17 MILES
SOUTH OF WATERLOO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRANDON AROUND 625 PM CST.
JESUP AROUND 630 PM CST.
ROWLEY AROUND 635 PM CST.
INDEPENDENCE AROUND 640 PM CST.
WINTHROP AND HAZLETON AROUND 645 PM CST.
AURORA AND STANLEY AROUND 650 PM CST.
LAMONT AND DUNDEE AROUND 655 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CHENEY...FONTANA
PARK...DELAWARE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...LITTLETON...BACKBONE STATE
PARK...ONEIDA...INDEPENDENCE AIRPORT...MANCHESTER AIRPORT...MONTI AND
MINNE ESTEMA PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 55.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4264 9145 4247 9121 4230 9173 4230 9183
4226 9184 4210 9230 4230 9230 4230 9206
4264 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 236DEG 51KT 4224 9239
$

RP KINNEY

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The NWS seriously needs to consider having a High Wind Warning up, this is looking more serious. 

 

Well surface winds are roaring here and picking up as I type this.

 

That segment just south of ALO is looking prime for higher winds.

 

DVN.N0Q.20151106.0013.gif

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Starting misty a little outside. Highest wind gust at UGN 31 mph so far.

 

Below severe limits, but still some strong storm in eastern Iowa.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015IAC011-019-055-095-103-107-113-060200-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-BUCHANAN-LINN-DELAWARE-IOWA-BENTON-657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IOWA THISEVENING...AT 654 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM AURORA TO NEAR NEW SHARON...AND THE ENTIRE LINEWAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL AREPOSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OFHEAVY RAIN AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CEDAR RAPIDS...INDEPENDENCE...VINTON...MANCHESTER...MARENGO...SIGOURNEY...MARION...HIAWATHA...ROBINS...WILLIAMSBURG...BELLEPLAINE...JESUP...CENTER POINT...FAIRFAX...ATKINS...WALFORD...URBANA...CENTRAL CITY...NORTH ENGLISH AND PALO.THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 205 AND 233. INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 55.



			
		
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