HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The 0Z GFS and the 06Z GFS have trended even closer to the NAM/ECMWF, showing a line moving through, this would cause a low end-mid end severe event possibly (Marginal/Slight), seeing how this could impact most of the forum, it warrants a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 The CIPS analog looks interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Yep. It will be interesting too see if those winds show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Decent potential for some thunder in Southern Ontario on Friday afternoon. Timing looks good. Instability obviously the main factor but nice soundings coming off the GFS with a strong wind field. Damaging wind gusts are a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 There's several things to like about this system (especially on the deeper solutions) but the mid level lapse rates aren't one of them. Nonetheless, should be enough for at least a lower end severe threat. If we could somehow manage CAPE AOA 500 J/kg, I think the threat would go up substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 It appears that the Euro is roughly 12 hours ahead of the NAM but with a very similar solution. The Euro deepens the low much quicker but if the NAM verifies, that would result in more favorable timing on Friday in addition for more time for moisture return into the Ohio Valley. This is definitely the most dynamic system we've had this fall so I'd be surprised if we don't see at least a low-end slight risk on Friday. With such strong forcing and shear, I don't think it would take much CAPE at all to really get things going (LI's are negative anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 12z GFS has explosive deepening of the surface low on Friday...drops about 25 mb in 18 hours. Pretty impressive synoptic/non-thunderstorm related wind response in the Great Lakes region as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Non-thunderstorm winds should also be pretty intense if the current model trend continues. Looking forward to some interesting AFDs later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Could definitely get a wind advisory out of this, on top of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Could definitely get a wind advisory out of this, on top of severe. You could probably even argue for some brief high wind warnings based on this run. I'm not convinced it won't trend toward earlier deepening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 If this system can slow down just a bit we would be looking at a pretty solid severe weather event for MI and OH. I wouldn't be shocked if we got severe weather with the current setup as models depict strong kinematics with the rapidly deepening low. Given a slower ejection would allow for some daytime heating on Friday though, which could be the last piece of the puzzle, that said I am interested in this system even in current projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 GFS actually has an area of PWATS around 2" near the Ohio River at 12z Friday. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 12z GFS a bit further NW than the run 24 hours ago. Would definitely be on alert for severe south of I-80/90. Mid 60 dewpoints reaching towards Bloomington, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Not just for the 6th, but the ensemble guidance has been consistently projecting a pattern favorable for perhaps multiple severe events or at least robust ejecting systems between now and sometime post-Veterans Day. First thought would be the initial one doesn't produce too much due to lack of instability/etc, but then look out afterwards as moisture trajectories become re-established and perhaps a half-decent EML plume can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I'm probably more interested in the post-frontal wind spike potential at this point. Doesn't pay to get too specific right now but anytime the models have deepening >1 mb/hour, it gets my attention. As progged, pretty rapid pressure rises on the back side. Can't have any delay in the surface low bombing though as that would result in most of the strong winds ending up in Canada or just clipping part of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 IWX ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO AT BEST MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WINDS MAY BE MORE THEN ENOUGH TO CHANNEL DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS EVEN THROUGH A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BETWEEN 10 AM EST NORTHWEST TO 7 PM EST SOUTHEAST OVER LIMA. ALSO...GFS NON/CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH...SO IT IS LIKELY SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I'm probably more interested in the post-frontal wind spike potential at this point. Doesn't pay to get too specific right now but anytime the models have deepening >1 mb/hour, it gets my attention. As progged, pretty rapid pressure rises on the back side. Can't have any delay in the surface low bombing though as that would result in most of the strong winds ending up in Canada or just clipping part of the Lakes. Seems to happen a lot the last few years. Can't seem to be able to buy one that bombs further south/west anymore. I'm hopeful the storm showing up in the 9-10 day range takes off earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The Euro now seems to be the outlier...the NAM and GFS match well up until 84 hours with rapid deepening thereafter. The Euro deepens the low sooner and farther northwest. As a side-note though, the Euro also shows the beginnings of an absolute monster towards the end of next week (hour 240). ILN: OF ANOTHERCONCERN IS THE INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL COOL SEASON QLCS ASDECENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A STRONG LLJ ACCOMPANIES FRONTALPASSAGE. CURRENT MODEL MLCAPE VALUES INDICATE AT LEAST 200 J/KGWHICH IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE TYPICAL COOL SEASON WEATHERSYSTEMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN OUR LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERSALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPEREGIME...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS TODEVELOP ON A LINE WITH THE THREAT FOR ENHANCED DAMAGING WINDS OR ASPIN UP TORNADO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE THREATS AND WILLPLACE IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO AN APPROPRIATE LEVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 This is looking to be a high wind, non severe event as well. 18Z GFS Running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 18Z GFS increased gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Nice GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Some of the 18z GFS forecast soundings are quite impressive in terms of gust potential. Hope to see it bomb a bit quicker to put the better winds over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 GFS has an area of 40 kt sustained winds over land on Friday. You don't see that type of thing on a model too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 00z GFS looks like it's coming in more amplified aloft. Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a more impressive/deeper solution at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I don't always make changes, but when I do, they're big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Yeah I would definitely say more amplified, Much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Pressure goes from 988 mb to 976 mb in 6 hours as it's heading into Canada. And a 29 mb drop in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Tremendous mid-level dry punch on the GFS is another factor in favor of high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Wow....keeps bombing to sub 970 by 00z 07NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Stronger srn stream wave which looks like it phases earlier with what comes down out of Canada. If that srn wave were to dig a little more and it was a month and a half later you'd be seeing a big snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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