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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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MDT has a shot at 70 on Christmas Eve if it can clear out and keep the winds down.

 

The last two runs of the Euro haven't been quite the thermonuclear detonation that yesterdays 12z was. Today's 12z seems to have more of a hint of the GFS frontal passage by Xmas Day but not as pronounced. GFS still has a stronger frontal passage and there would probably be snow showers in the mountains later Xmas Day if the GFS had it's way. So July on Christmas is certainly not a slam dunk. 

 

Either way it's still quite warm on both models the couple days leading up to Christmas, With one or two of those days maybe attempting 60+. Who knows what'll happen afterwards, GFS has looked changeable in the long range.. while Euro chugs right along with continuing to ram up heights in the east. Something's gotta give with this crappy pattern eventually. 

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Grasping at straws here, but 18z gfs looks interesting for the 12/28 period. Much better track and high pressure signature compared to previous runs. Something to keep an eye on perhaps. Drops 15" on UNV verbatim  :weenie:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151218+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

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dont look now but i have my first winter weather alert.

 

...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
ELK...CLEARFIELD...MCKEAN...SOMERSET...WARREN AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EST.

* AT 854 PM EST...A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ADVANCING ON THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR ALLEGANY TO NEAR FARMINGTON...AND ARE MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIM...BRADFORD...WESTMONT...JOHNSTOWN...CLEARFIELD...RIDGWAY...
JOHNSONBURG...EBENSBURG...PORTAGE...SOMERSET...KANE...ST. MARYS...
NANTY-GLO...WARREN...BELMONT...WINDBER...DUBOIS...SANDY...MEYERSDALE
AND KINZUA DAM.

FOR THOSE DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80...THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN THE
DUBOIS AND KYLERTOWN EXITS...SPECIFICALLY FROM MILE MARKERS 97 TO
124.

THIS INCLUDES THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 100 TO 129.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS ARE POSSIBLE.
CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THE SNOW SHOWERS PASS YOUR LOCATION.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

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Ended up with about a half inch from the squalls earlier, discovered that the roads are quite a ****show around the local area. Pic was taken near the PSU Altoona Campus. Sounds like numerous accidents on the scanner. Bad timing being a Friday night and it being unlikely that PennDOT had any overnight staff ready to treat the roads. 

post-1507-0-61711700-1450509366_thumb.jp

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