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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Patience is the word that we must live by in terms of a better winter weather pattern developing. Most of the major models & many respected professional mets have been advertising for months that this will be a second half winter for the east. As MAG mentioned earlier, just last year, outside of the Thanksgiving eve storm, there wasn't much snow here until the last 10 days of January. MDT had less than 10 inches of snow through around January 20th last year, but rallied for nearly a 40 inch winter total that rolled on until the middle of March. There are many other winters that started slow as well.

So again, I urge everyone to be patient. This winter will end up making most of us who love snow very happy when all is said & done.

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There could be a window around the weekend of the 18th-20th for a winter storm according to the Euro Ensemble run today. In fact, the Euro Control run nails us with 6-10 inches of snow by the 20th. The Euro Operational run showed a colder pattern for the same time period, but kept the storm to the south at the end of its run. The Canadian model also today showed a storm in this time frame. Of course, plenty of time to go, but it is something to at the very least track & at best, it is a chance to get us on the board for the season.

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Patience is the word that we must live by in terms of a better winter weather pattern developing. Most of the major models & many respected professional mets have been advertising for months that this will be a second half winter for the east. As MAG mentioned earlier, just last year, outside of the Thanksgiving eve storm, there wasn't much snow here until the last 10 days of January. MDT had less than 10 inches of snow through around January 20th last year, but rallied for nearly a 40 inch winter total that rolled on until the middle of March. There are many other winters that started slow as well.

So again, I urge everyone to be patient. This winter will end up making most of us who love snow very happy when all is said & done.

Thank you....

 

thank you...

 

 

 

 

THANK YOU....

 

Step off the cliff's folks.  it's 12/10 we cant trust any model past 10 days....yet were ready to jump.  While ugly is the word of the day(week(s)), signs of some sort of reshuffling are showing up.  How that translates at 2m temps/precip....well its still up in the air... :)

 

 

Eskimo....we MAY forgive you...

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There could be a window around the weekend of the 18th-20th for a winter storm according to the Euro Ensemble run today. In fact, the Euro Control run nails us with 6-10 inches of snow by the 20th. The Euro Operational run showed a colder pattern for the same time period, but kept the storm to the south at the end of its run. The Canadian model also today showed a storm in this time frame. Of course, plenty of time to go, but it is something to at the very least track & at best, it is a chance to get us on the board for the season.

so your saying its gonna snow on the 20TH? :) 

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Boy the 6z GFS was offering plenty of extra  :weenie:  :weenie:  this morning during the week leading up to and during Christmas. 

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if the record warmth of November and December ends with a white Christmas???

 

At least someone around here has said something about a model run.  Last several days of GFS runs have had it turning colder here just before Christmas.  Trends are all we need to pay attention to at the moment.

 

If you're a bit older, like me, I can take you back to the winter of '77-'78.  Virtually nothing happened winter-weather-wise in the northern mid-atlantic (NJ) until the middle of January.  Then, all of the sudden we had a severe ice storm and that was followed by the blizzard of '78 around Feb 7-8.  That snow hung around deep into March from how cold it became.

 

There are MANY good winters that got started very slowly.  In the meantime, I am going to enjoy the near-record warmth this weekend since it will come with sunshine.  Quoting a 'well respected' meteorologist..."Enjoy the weather 'cause it's the only weather you've got!"

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Well at least somebody's getting some snow, even if is going by #poopsnow.

 

Per CTP f-book this morning:

 

 

 

I talked to my parents who live in Danville, and they said something very similar to this happened there as well. My mom said it was very foggy and they had some snow in their area, while a few minutes away there was nothing.

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Definitely ridge top warmth though during the overnight hours. Here in the Tamaqua "valley" this morning, where I sit at 800ft, it's 46 degrees. Friday night while coming home from Wilkes-Barre, temps on the ridge tops along I-81 were running at 50-55 degrees, while in the lower valleys, they were down in the low to mid 40's.

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